Showers and storms return.

 

The last few days have been great, but showers and storms are back for today into tomorrow.

Surface Chart and Radar

 

Today

We have high pressure sitting off the northern Middle Atlantic Coast, with the stationary front sitting over eastern New York State, with a prefrontal trough and low pressure approaching from the west. Ahead of this, we have a warm front lifting northward with a southwest flow that is directing warmer temperatures and much higher humidity into the region, making it feel quite muggy. We have a few showers ahead of and along the prefrontal trough. But the showers and storms should become more widespread later this afternoon into 10 to 11 p.m. Some of these storms could be strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for Severe Storms across Western Pennsylvania into Southwest New York State.  With a Marginal Risk across much of Northern Pennsylvania into Central New York State.

 

The greatest chance of severe thunderstorms will happen during the later afternoon into this evening. The main threat will be damaging winds and heavy downpours, but there is a very low risk for a tornado or two, SPC has outlined northwest Pennsylvania and southwest New York State at a 2% chance.

The rest of the week

 A few showers may linger across northern areas into Thursday morning, before things dry out, But the widespread showers and a few thunderstorms will move over Southern New England eastern Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey as the cold front finely moves through.

Outside of the chance for lingering showers over southern New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware early Friday morning, things should dry up, leading to a fairly nice rest of Friday.  Friday and Saturday should see coolish temperatures with low humidity as high pressure sets up.  Both days should be mainly dry. Then the high pressure will depart and a cold front approach for late Saturday and moves through on Sunday, the front will bring rain showers and a few thunderstorms, some of the showers could be heavy at times.

Monday will see high pressure move back-in overhead, providing near seasonal temperatures and dry conditions. Then on Tuesday a warm front will be lifting into the region, allowing temperatures and dewpoints to climb.  Later Tuesday and Wednesday a cold front will roll through, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of these storms could be strong to severe.