It will be mild for the next few days with not a lot going on until Friday. This January thaw Is going to be very short lived and will be out of here next week!
The latest storm is system is pulling away With a weakening front moving across the region. Leaving just a few isolated rain mix snow showers around a region. Tomorrow is going to be quiet as high pressure moves in overhead. Then on Friday we will see a system move through the Great Lakes bringing Southern winds that will really warm us up to well above average temperatures for this time of year. With the front we will see widespread rain move across the region. This will be the first of several shortwaves that are going to move through. The second shortwave moving out of the Ohio Valley will move through Saturday morning. We will again see widespread rain across the region moving West to East. But as the trailing cold front approaches and comes through temperatures are going to start to plummet later Saturday into Sunday, turning left over rain over to some snow and or a sleet freezing rain mix, across New York State and New England. Other than temperatures falling the rest of the region shouldn't see much in the way of precipitation.
By Monday the January thaw will be over and we will once again be in a colder pattern. Away from the Great Lakes where lake effect snow will undoubtedly be falling on Monday; the rest of the region should stay fairly tranquil with just a chance for a few scattered snow mix rain showers. Tuesday is looking tranquil across the region.
On Wednesday into Thursday we're going to have another system approaching From the west moving through the Great Lakes. At the same time gonna have a system moving up or along the coast. The timing between these two systems is going to be critical in if the region is impacted by anything larger. We're going to have to see if the southern energy can get out ahead of the trough that will be in the northern stream If it does get ahead of the trough, it will come up the coast and phase with the northern energy, bringing an impactful snowstorm to interior sections of the Northeast and Middle Atlantic. If that southern energy lags behind the trough It will be prevented from coming up the coast and instead will go out to sea. Right now we're just talking potential with nothing definite. It could go either way!
I've been talking about the second half of January into February seeing the return of a cold pattern. The teleconnections are strongly showing that we are going to see the polar vortex weaken during the second half of January. This will lead to intrusions of arctic air back into the region. Here is a look at the euro for January 20th. If you love snowstorms and cold; this is the pattern you want to see, We have a monster ridge out west And a deep trough over the east. With the strong ridging up into Alaska It is going to help push cold air south and east out of the Arctic down into the central and eastern United States. The pattern will be very supportive for winter time snowstorms! Will we see them? who knows! But you have to have the cold before you can get the snow.
