A quick post on the tropical Atlantic.

 Here's a quick post on the tropics

 

First the Elephant in the room!

Yes, the NHC is showing Cristobal, I don’t necessarily agree with this assessment, it looks more like a ham sandwich to me, but I don’t call the shots. Regardless, Cristobal will be short-lived as it tracks east-northeast out into the open Atlantic and poses no threat to land. Cristobal has max sustained winds of 45 mph, with a min central pressure of 1008mb

We are also tracking two tropical waves in the central and eastern tropical Atlantic.

 Invest 92L

The westernmost disturbance is Invest 92L. The NHC has the 2-day and 7-day development odds at 80%. This is likely to become a tropical depression within the next couple of days as it generally heads toward the Caribbean.

I’ve been talking about the two scenarios for 92L: I had thought a scenario of this curving north and becoming a developing storm the most likely.  

But right now, this tracking northward is for the most part off the table. So, a westward trajectory near or over the Lesser Antilles into the Caribbean. Or it could head toward the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico for late weekend into early next week. 92L is still dealing with dry air; this will continue to be an issue. But in spite of that, there is a chance that 92L takes the name Dolly down the road.

Wind shear is still very hostile 

Behind 92L

A second tropical wave disturbance. The NHC is giving that wave in the orange cone a 40% chance of development.   If it can hold itself together and develop the track looks to carry it closer to the Lesser Antilles early next week.

The African wave train is picking up steam; we have 4-5 more waves that are sitting over Africa. so it could get interesting as we head toward the peak of the season. 

That's it for today!