An active few days!

The pattern is going to be hot and humid and very unsettled for much of this work week. It will likely extend into the coming weekend.

 Surface chart and radar.

We can see the first in a series of shortwave energy over Ohio. Over the next few days, we’re going to see these complexes of storms roll from northwest to southeast, moving over the top of the ridge.

That stalled frontal boundary is going to move back north as a warm front.

 

Across southern New York State, Pennsylvania, and Middle Atlantic the temperature will be very warm with moderately high humidity. North of there, temperatures are a bit cooler with humidity levels slightly less. As the front slides north and the shortwave advances east, showers and thunderstorms will be around for the afternoon and evening. These should be slowly tapering off tonight and thru overnight. As a cold front will drop through during the overnight, so we should see humidity levels and humidity drop a little behind the front.

The storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for Severe weather across most of Pennsylvania and Maryland. With a Moderate Risk that extends across Southern New York State south of the Thruway. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will be a possible this afternoon and evening.    the thunderstorms that form will be capable of damaging winds, heavy downpours and frequent lightning, with the heavy rain due to the increased moisture in the air, flash flooding will be a big concern.

Tomorrow will see a very tropical airmass for areas south of the stalled frontal boundary. While areas north of the boundary will be a little cooler with lower dewpoints. Another shortwave will move along the boundary, so it will be another day with scattered showers and thunderstorms some of which will be strong to severe. Again, some of these storms could contain damaging winds, heavy downpours with frequent Lightning. The flooding risk will continue.

The pattern will continue for Wednesday. Muggy air will be surging back north, as a warm front pushes in, with showers and thunderstorms rolling through later Wednesday into Thursday.

Friday will see a cold front approach and try to move through.  Ahead of the front winds will become quite breezy.  High pressure will be overhead, so Friday into Saturday look to see cooler temperatures with humidity much lower.  The region should be mainly dry with only a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms. Sunday, an approaching area of low pressure with a front will produce few isolated to scattered rain showers.  Some of these storms could be on the strong to severe side.  Monday will see the front pushing east, with lingering rain showers. Temperatures and humidity will become very refreshing.