A little bit of everything.
This post will be a bit long as I'm going to cover a lot of topics.
Looking at the weather for the next 5-7 days.
The monster ridge that caused all the heat and humidity continuing to break down. At the same time we're going to see a big ridge develop over the western part of north America. As the eastern ridge continues to relax we are going to see the flow return to more of a typical west to east flow over the northern CONUS. This type of pattern is going to have implications for our region as we move further into the summer.
Here is a look at the surface/radar chart.
We can see high pressure sitting out over the Gulf of Maine with the back door cold front pushed south and stationary to our south and west. The region should see quite a bit of cloudiness With some rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Generally the region is going to be cool.
Later tonight and into Saturday that stationary front is going to start to move north and east. Alarm for temperatures to warm up quite a bit but humidity won't be super high. Then a weak cold front will drop through bringing widely scattered rain showers and some thunderstorms along with it, Some other thunderstorms Back over The eastern part of New York state into eastern Pennsylvania and parts of the Northern middle Atlantic Could be on the strong side The main danger will be strong gusty winds.
The best timing for any severe weather during the afternoon and through the evening. How widespread Thunderstorms are will depend on how sunny we get. If we stay generally mostly cloudy, it will help limit the possibility of severe weather.
I don't want to oversell this, overall Saturday isn't looking too bad. Temperatures will start to warm , The rain looks to be hit and miss and many of us might not see much of any rain at all. Sunday morning and much of the afternoon is looking like it's going to be dry to mainly dry across northern and western parts of the region. As the cold front continues to slide south and east, there will be a chance for some rain and thunderstorms late in the afternoon and into the evening over eastern Pennsylvania into the northern Middle Atlantic. But not everyone is going to see them. Neither Saturday or Sunday will be a wash out, so don't cancel your plans. Just keep your eyes on sky And be ready for The possibility of a shower or even a thunderstorm, Generally the showers or storms should only last for 15 to 30 minutes.
Then for Monday we're going to have a warm front lifting to the region Followed by a cold front that will be drifting through the region For later Monday and Tuesday both days are going to feature a chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. The best chance for more in the way of widespread thunderstorms will be Tuesday and again some of these might be strong to severe. Both Wednesday and Thursday are looking to be generally sunny and dry. For July 4th Friday the region is generally looking to be dry, We have a week to see if that idea holds.
Looking out into the future.
When we start July we're going to see a big bridge developing in the western US At the same time We are going to be seeing a short wave that I've been talking about for at least a week now is going to develop in the central Canadian Prairies.Which is going to drop south and east across the great lakes and into the Northeast. This will be drag a cold front through the Northeast and Middle Atlantic resulting in scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. thunderstorms will likely be strong to severe.
As we move through July; the southwest monsoon is Going to become established. The monsoon is looking to be pretty strong. This is going to take moisture coming out of the Pacific and western Gulf of America and stream it northward. From here with the active zonal pattern this moisture is going to be shunted eastward. At the same time, we're going to have the Bermuda high in the Atlantic As moisture circulates around it from Atlantic and Caribbean.With all the moisture streaming in, I do think the Northeast and to some extent the Middle Atlantic region will see quite a bit of cloudiness along with many chances for rain and likely thunderstorms. The pattern I described when I started this post. Will help support stalled out frontal activity over the eastern CONUS. With the northern flow staying active and how we look to see a return to more of a traditional Central ridge. I don't see support for any persistent heat in any one place. All this is signaling generally overall coolness with some warm times in between cooler outbreaks. So for the region I think overall temperatures for the month of July are going to end up being slightly below average Above average precipitation. That doesn't mean you won't see some hot days. It just means that on the average things will be a bit coolish.
When we look at the climate prediction centers 8-14 day outlooks we can see how they support the idea that I've just described above.
In the precipitation outlook, you can see all that moisture in the southwest due to the monsoon. It also shows the Eastern United States being slightly above average in rainfall.
The tropics
National hurricane center Is monitoring the area near the Bay of Campeche.
A quick look at drought conditions.
We baked under the heat dome Many places saw their highest June temperatures on record. But despite the heat We had enough rain that it kept everything in check. In fact the moderate drought conditions in parts of the Middle Atlantic did slightly improve.
