I’ve been
talking about the current El Nino pattern for months. I’ve repeatedly talked about how Typical
El Nino weather patterns include wetter and stormier winters across the
southern United States, warmer and drier conditions in the northern United
States. In the long range Canadian CanSIPS model, this pattern shows up very
well.
November
December
January
February
March
The December
– February average
As the
pattern continues to evolve, the El Nino’s warm water is going to provide a stark
contrast to the cooler air that will drop south as the polar jet shifts the
stormy pattern south. As a result of this temperature contrast, the southern Jet
is going to become super charged. The parade of storms that have been impacting
Alaska, will shift south allowing Pacific disturbance to move into California
and work their way across the southern CONUS. At times we’re going to see a
split in the polar jet, that will allow some storms to move into the Pacific
Northwest. The Southern US and Southeast US will see a lot of winter storms
this winter, I think more than a few of these will move up the Eastern Seaboard,
some of these will track out to sea, but some will likely impact the Northern
Middle Atlantic and Northeast. But their impacts will depend on track and cold
air availability. So, while the winter will be milder than average there will
be periods of cold and maybe arctic airmasses, so this will keep the region
active with a chance for more than a few snowstorms, especially along the
coastal plain.
I’ve been trying to reenforce what I discussed in the Winter Outlook; by showing how the pattern is evolving. Today’s pattern discussion is trying to give you a visual of what I’ve been harping about for what seems like forever. I’m trying to build confidence among all y’all, that I do know a thing or two about a thing or two!
Surface
Chart, Radar and Satellite
The system
over the Southwest is going to cross the country, bringing severe weather for
some, heavy rain and strong winds for the southern and central Plains. Then it
will move into the Midwest and Middle Atlantic, before tracking into the
Northeast with gusty winds and periods of heavy rain.
Today
High
pressure overhead is starting to slowly push east. Today is going to be very mild with above
average temperatures with light winds. We do have a few isolated showers across
parts of the region; this will be especially true across northern Maine. But we
can see the system out west that is going to be heading our way for the second
half of the week.
For the rest of the week
Tomorrow and
Wednesday will stay very mild with near record to record warmth and mostly dry
across the region. But Tuesday a disturbance pushing across Canada, could cause
a few light and fairly
steady showers over New York State and Northern New England. But the rest of
the region will stay dry. For Wednesday there
could be a few lingering showers across Maine, but the rest of the region
should be dry during the day.
Then on
Wednesday night western parts of the region could see some rain approaching. As
the frontal system approaches on a warm front will move across the region for
Thursday. The front will bring the chance for rain showers and perhaps some
thunderstorms. Thursday night into Friday the cold front will be slowly
approaching with rain heavy at times moving west to east across the region,
parts of the region need rain badly, so this rain is very much wanted. The cold front will be pushing east on
Saturday, with lingering rain showers across eastern long Island and eastern
New England possible. Behind the cold
front high pressure will move in providing seasonal temperatures. As I said yesterday, we will have a Coastal
storm/Nor’easter that will bring rain and wind to the region later Sunday through
at least Tuesday. The track will decide who sees what.
