Cooler today and dry, but rain comes back tomorrow.

 

I had to go to Plattsburgh Yesterday for a family matter. So, I wasn’t able to post anything for all y’all. Here is a quick post for the rest of this weekend and next week.

It has been sweltering the last few days with highs ranging from the upper lower 80s into the mid 90’s with heat indices in the middle 90s into the triple digits.  The surface chart shows the cold front has move through the region, leaving temperatures a little cooler with lower humidity. So, for today there will be a mix of sun and clouds, and it will be a bit breezy. Ahead let another approaching cold front, there will be a chance for isolated rain showers and perhaps a rouge storm mid-to-late afternoon. The greatest risk for this will be closer to the Canadian Border. But most of the region will remain dry.

So, what happened with the severe weather over much of the region yesterday?

Yesterday the severe weather ended up being more or less a bust. To get widespread severe storms you need three basic ingredients: instability, wind shear, and moisture and a lifting mechanism to provide the “nudge.” We had moderate instability, with plenty of hot and humid air. But the progressive nature of the cold front, and the lack of a lot of wind shear (changes in wind speed and direction with height), was enough to keep the severe weather in check, with only some localized severe storms, the isolated storms were more of an issue for Southeast New York State into New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware.  In order to get a lot of severe storms we need everything to lineup just right.  

Tomorrow

 

A stronger cold front will move through tomorrow. The southern flow ahead of the front will become breezy and will allow for warm temperatures and higher dew points to move back into the region. With this there will be the chance for widespread rain showers and scattered thunderstorms. Some of these storms will bring the potential to be strong to severe. The greatest danger of any storms that end up forming will be damaging winds and heavy downpours. There will be a lesser risk for hail. With the humidity frequent lightning will be a risk. While one or two brief tornadoes are possible, the risk for this is very low, those closer to the Canadian Border and the northern Middle Atlantic have the best chance of seeing any tornadoes if they end up forming. The greatest time for severe storms will be around mid-afternoon into the evening.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the entire region under a Slight Risk for severe storms, across the Southern Tier of New York State (south of I-90) into the lower and mid-Hudson Valley, most of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware. The SPC has a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms over western and Northern New York State as well as western New England.

As we saw yesterday, the potential for severe weather doesn’t always come to fruition. 

 The cold front will be moving over eastern New England Sunday night into Monday morning, bringing the chance for some badly needed rain, and maybe a few thunderstorms, due to the timing the severe chances will be very low.  

Next Week 

Behind the cold front, we’re going to see much more comfortable conditions.  Monday and Tuesday are looking to be mainly dry with much cooler temperatures and low humidity. Then Wednesday we’re going to have a weak disturbance move across southern Canada with a slow moving cold front approach and move through. This will bring back some heat and humidity along with the chance for rain showers and thunderstorms. The unsettled pattern will stick around for Thursday and Friday, with the chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, this will be especially true for later Thursday and Friday.  Behind the front, cooler (seasonable) and comfortable humidity will move back in for the weekend.