Before I get into today's post, I do want to explain why the severe weather yesterday was a bit underwhelming. Not that that's a bad thing!
What happened with yesterday's severe weather?
We did have widespread severe weather across the Middle Atlantic. But across most of Pennsylvania and the rest of northeast The severe threat never materialized. While we had quite a few Damaging wind events In the middle Atlantic The overall intensity Of these events Wasn't anywhere near as robust As the earlier overall dynamics had been suggesting they would be.
Yesterday was all about potential. We had a lot of factors in play that had to come together just perfectly to make a big severe event possible. This was a very complex setup. Why didn't the parameters come together To make for a severe weather outbreak?
The trough was negatively tilted and we did have a strong Jet streak on the south east side of the trough. This is all well and fine, but the shortwave trough was slightly delayed. With it slow to eject It failed to take full advantage of the environment. The flow in the warm sector exit region of the trough was south to north (meridional). That kept the deep layer share sheer somewhat in check. With everything running in parallel. It met that we had a lot of convective (cloud) cover out ahead with the prefrontal trough, This made it difficult for severe weather to really get going. We also didn't really have a capping inversion in place overhead. The lack of warm dry air (Elevated mix layer) over the moisture in the lower levels, helped keep the lid on the pot, Keeping things from boiling over and the atmosphere exploding. All of this zapped the atmosphere. and caused the overall dynamics of everything to underperform. Many of the factors driving the setup were synaptic, Meaning the low pressure and overall environment was in control of the severe potential. But the lack of sun kept the atmosphere from becoming extremely unstable. Which was needed for the setup to reach its full potential.
Here's a look at today's surface chart and the current radar
Looking at the surface chart we can see that strong area of high pressure up in Canada, Well north of the US Canadian border, with yesterday's cold front Pushed off the coast. The radar does show lake effect snow bands extending off of lake Ontario and lake Erie. These lake effect bands are extending into New England as well as the northern Middle Atlantic. We do have an approaching secondary cold front that is going to end up realigning the winds and pushing these lake effect bands south and east of the lakes.
Our saint Patrick's day is experiencing very chilly temperatures and blustery winds. Winds are 10-20 miles an hour We've cost of 30 to as much as 45 miles an hour possible.The
Temperatures are much colder than they were yesterday
The most persistent snow bands are going to set up in the higher terrain south of Buffalo And near lake Ontario. For those east of lake Ontario Accumulations of 1 to 4 or 5" will be possible today across the tug hill into the Adirondacks. Once that cold front comes through The lake effect is gonna push be pushed south And ending up setting up Near the New York state thruway Those under the most significant part of the band We'll see 5-12 " of snow tonight. While areas east of lake Ontario And down through the western mohawk valley Pick up another 2 to 5 " of snow. These like effect snow bands Should be weakening during the overnight And will likely be dissipating Wednesday morning. Off of lake Erie south of buffalo In the ski country general lake effect snow amounts of 1-3 " will be possible today. This snow will continue into tonight Bringing the chance for an additional 1 to 2" of a snow accumulation With localized higher amounts possible. Again the snow should be Dissipating during the overnight and ending early Wednesday morning.
When's are going to be diminishing During the day today Setting us up for a very cold night. As high pressure moves in Over the region.
No major storms are expected For the rest of this week into the weekend We're going to have a series of wheat troughs move through the region keeping things a bit unsettled with a chance for A few snow showers and rain showers. Tomorrow temperatures are going to try to slightly rebound But overall temperatures are still gonna be below average for this time of year. Thursday the high pressure is gonna start pushing east. The temperatures should become a bit milder But I still expect them to be slightly below average for this time of year. On friday a slightly stronger trough will come through bringing the risk for some scattered snow showers and rain showers. On Saturday We will see a warm front lifting through the region Associated with yet another trough. This will allow milder air to finally work into the region, along with the risk for rain and snow showers. Send on Sunday a cold front will work back to the region Setting us back up for that temperature rollercoaster.
Sea surface temperature anomalies
As most of y'all know I've been posting that I believe were already in ENSO neutral, and have been for at least the last 3-4 weeks. But that determination is not up to me. The CPC and NOAA are officially indicating that La Nina will end next month As a result, we are in an official El Nino watch. With us moving into El nino during early summer. It's still uncertain How strong is el nino will be. But right now the setup looks to be supporting a moderate to strong El Nino. With a possibility of being even stronger than that. As most of y'all know, El Nino decreases the chance for an active hurricane season due to increased wind shear over the main development region of the Atlantic Basin.
