Today is gonna be very nice. We have high pressure over the region with that clipper over the southern Canadian Prairies working its way east.
EURO Temperature outlook for Saturday, courtesy tropical tidbits.
Sunday marks the first day of meteorological spring. But temperatures are going to be quite chilly for Tuesday into Wednesday and we are gonna see below average temperatures. Then on Wednesday temperatures will be getting closer to what is considered average for this time of year.
The euro temperature outlook for Sunday Courtesy of tropical tidbits
We can see Temperatures in the low 30s along the Mason Dixon Line.
As that cold front slides through ; we are going to see rain, mix and snow showers and maybe a few squalls on the frontal boundary. Those higher elevations will be more likely to see the snow. For the most part this should only be a dusting to an inch or so but maybe as much as 3 inches for a few of y'all.
The cold arctic air mass is gonna continue to dig into the region on Monday
The euro temperature outlook for Monday. Courtesy of tropical tidbits
I've been talking about over running quite a bit lately. When I say it's going to be an over running event I mean we're gonna have cold air close to the surface with warm air aloft moving over the top of that.
On Monday we're gonna have high pressure sitting to the north With a system trying to push north. That high pressure is going to help suppress this to the south.
Monday and Monday night
A piece of weak energy is going to be moving over the Ohio valley. As this tracks east; it's going to be moving into that cold dry air mass.
The dynamics of the situation will likely lead to this energy weakening as it tracks to our south. You can see that in these 500MB vort images courtesy of tropical tidbits.
So For southern Pennsylvania and the northern Middle Atlantic this is going to start as a little bit of snow and then we will see a change over to a mix of Sleet and freezing rain and then eventually this would change over to plain rain.
I can see a dusting to a coup!e of inches of snow on the northern side of the low For southern Pennsylvania Maryland Delaware New Jersey into Virginia.
Tuesday and Tuesday night
Then we will take a short break Before the next storm tracks into the region. This one will be Tuesday into early Wednesday morning . High pressure that was up over New York State into New England is going to be sliding to the east. This will allow the second storm to track further north than the first one.
South of interstate 80 there could be a little bit Of a snow mix But this will likely quickly change over to rain. Between interstate 80 and interstate 90 you will hang on to that cold air a little longer so you will see more snow before the changeover to some sleet and freezing rain, before a likely changeover to rain. Those north of 90 across northern New York State and northern New England will likely see at least a few inches of snow out of this. A general 3-6 inches is a possibility. For the northern part of the region this could stay all snow or mostly all snow for the duration of the storm. These areas especially in the higher elevations could see 4-8 + inches.
Charts courtesy of tropical tidbits
Ice will be an issue for at least Pennsylvania and the northern middle Atlantic area. But even north of there across southern New York State into southern New England There will still likely be some ice.
Behind this Tuesday Wednesday storm; we are going to start a warm up. Thursday into next week temperatures become above average to well above average for this time of year. The reason for the warmth has to do with the sudden stratospheric warning that is taking place, that will lead to a polar vortex split. Initially the split is going to effect areas to our west with colder conditions. This will allow all this warmth to move into the region for the first part of march.
But I still think that as the polar vortex split evolves the cold is going to move into the east and bringing some cold air into the Great Lakes, Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic during the second half of march. I also think the models are overdoing the extent of how warm things are going to be over New York State into New England, due to the deeper snowpack. Those over southern Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and a large part of New Jersey are most likely going to see the warmest temperatures for our region. We have the higher sun angle and milder temperatures; we are going to see snow melt. Southern parts of the region will likely lose all or most of their snow pack. While northern areas likely hang on to at least some snow pack. As we head into the second part of March. With the snow melt flooding and ice jams will be an issue.
