The arctic air has moved back north with mild air taking its place.
Looking at the north American 2 meter temperature anomaly we can see all the cold air is now pushed north up over central and western Canada.
As I posted earlier today We have this week cold front coming through today And then we're going to have another much stronger frontal system for late Thursday And Friday. After that We are going to have an active pattern Several of Fast moving Frontal systems coming through. Allowing for rollercoaster temperatures and chances for some snow/ice/ rain showers, but nothing too major, As the storm track is pretty far north and these systems are moisture starved. Outside of areas near the Great Lakes where they will have to deal with some lake effect, Accumulations across the rest of the region should be fairly light.
The question is going to be about Christmas Eve and Christmas Day! I've been talking about this possible Around Christmas time event for a little while now.
Behind a clipper system on Tuesday We're going to have high pressure build in over the region for Christmas Eve Wednesday. This will allow cold air to be moving in and over much of the region.
Both the GFS and the EURO are showing high pressure up over southeast Canada
The GFS and EURO show that the 2 meter temperatures across New York State, New England into Pennsylvania are cold enough for snow.
Christmas Storm
The American GFS has shortwave energy moving across the middle of the United States. With the cold air in place over the region, As this continues to slide east It would bring a chance for some snow over part of Pennsylvania into New York State and New England. The GFS is showing a moderate storm moving across the Middle Atlantic region. On the other hand, the European EURO currently does not show the shortwave over The US. Instead it's keeping the storm track further to the north and the overall storm weaker. This would mean little to no snow for the Northeast into the Middle Atlantic. But the EURO does show a shortwave disturbance moving across the Plains Just after Christmas.
We're 6-7 days out and it's typical for the models to go back and forth and waffle this far out. So right now, the pattern does support the idea of a storm. But it's going to depend on timing and track of the shortwave disturbance. For now it could go either way!
I will have more on this as we continue to get closer.
