Monday
through Saturday is going to see increasing chances for widespread rain showers
and thunderstorms. Tuesday and Saturday
will have the greatest chance of seeing more in the way of widespread
thunderstorms.
We’re also
going to see a return of some wildfire smoke into parts of the region, as winds
start to usher in higher temperatures and higher dew points.
Today we have low pressure off the coast, this is keeping the coastal plain cooler due to that onshore flow, but inland more sun is allowing temperatures to be a little warmer
Surface chart and radar.
We have a
weakening cold front dropping out of Canada. This is going to set off pop up
rain showers across New York State today.
I can rule out a few heavier downpours. This shower chance is widely scattered through, so
many of us will likely get through the day dry. For most of y’all thunderstorms
should be non-severe. There will also be isolated showers and storms across
parts of Maryland today. For eastern Maryland some of these thunderstorms could
be on the strong side later this afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction
Center has a Marginal Risk across most of eastern Maryland.
The
beginning of next week brings a pattern shift. The Southwest into Texas
Panhandle, up through the southern Plains are going to see several days of air
at or above 105°F. as shortwave energy with storms move along the northern edge
of this heat dome across the Plains, the risk for severe weather will expand
east early this week. As we’ve seen several times this summer, once again we
will see thunderstorm complexes move over the dome along a corridor spanning
from northern portions of the Plains through the Midwest, Great Lakes and
eventually into the Northeast and mid-Atlantic.
Scattered rain
showers and storms will develop this afternoon/evening.
Monday
should start off dry with showers and storms developing into the afternoon and
evening. High pressure
will push east and exit the region, this will allow the winds to become
southernly, temperatures and dew points should rise through the day as well, as
a system approaches from the west-northwest and drops south and east out of the
Great Lakes, thunderstorms will be likely across western into central parts of New
York State and Pennsylvania. Some of these storms will be strong to severe. The
Storm Prediction Center has the Ohio Valley into far western Pennsylvania and extreme
southwest New York State under a slight risk for severe weather. The timing of
this looks to be primarily during the evening into Monday night The biggest
threats are for damaging winds, large hail. The SPC drops the risk to Marginal
across the rest of Pennsylvania into the northern Middle Atlantic. The conditions needed for tornado activity is
low, stay weather aware during the nighttime storms.
Then a slow-moving
area of low pressure a leading warm front followed by a cold front, will significantly
raise the threat for thunderstorm Tuesday into Wednesday as this more potent system
approaches, there will be a risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday across the
Middle Atlantic into southeast New York State. The SPC has a Slight Risk up for
Maryland, Delaware into far southern New Jersey and edges into southwest Pennsylvania,
Interstate 95 corridor will be at risk for damaging wind gust, Hail, and heavy
downpours will be a concern. There is a Marginal Risk for much of Pennsylvania,
the rest of New Jersey, into far southeast New York including New York City and
Long Island. North of here across the
rest of New York State and Central/southern New England there will be an issue
for heavy rainfall that could lead to localized flooding. for Maine it will likely be staying generally
dry for Monday and Tuesday, but rain chances will increase for Tuesday
evening/night.
Don’t be surprised
if the SPC expands the risk for Monday and Tuesday.
The low
pressure is going to track north and east on Wednesday. We will have to see if
something tries to form along the Middle Atlantic Coast. A
series of troughs moving through will keep the pattern a bit unsettled and generally cooler for the
2nd half of the week. Scattered shower and storm chances will last
through Thursday, Friday and Saturday. We will see another frontal system
approach for later Friday and Saturday. This will increase the risk for some
rain showers and thunderstorms.
The core of
the heat dome will span the Plains into the Midwest. Then this high-pressure-dome
will eventually shift back west, temperatures are expected to stay well above historical
averages across the Plains through mid-August. The east should be generally
cooler with more in the way of seasonal temperatures.
