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Surface
Chart, Radar and Satellite
Today
Is going to
be a great day overall. Temperatures will
cool off to around seasonal behind the front. Other than a chance for a few isolated
showers the region should stay dry.
The rest of the week.
Tomorrow
will be similar to today. Then on
Saturday high pressure will be right overhead. Providing a great day. Then we
will be watching the remnants of Isaias approach out of the Tennessee Valley.
Tropical
Atlantic
Last evening
at 10:30 pm, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) upgraded Tropical Storm Isaias
to hurricane Isaias. Making him the first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic
Hurricane Season. At 10:30 pm, Isaias had max sustained winds of 75 mph and a
central pressure of 982mb. As of 1:00 pm update, Isaias currently has maximum
sustained winds of 85 mph, minimum central pressure of 975mb, tracking
east-northeast at 10 mph.
Isaias
should continue to gain strength and has a good chance of becoming a Category 2
hurricane, but as I said a couple of days ago, a Category 3 hurricane isn’t out
of the question. Isaias should generally track northeast through Thursday,
before he shifts to a northward track toward the Gulf Coast. Wind shear is going
to become much stronger the farther north Isaias goes; it is likely Isaias will
weaken as he gets closer to landfall. At
this time, landfall is looking to be late Thursday into the early morning hours
Friday on the western Florida panhandle or South Alabama Friday evening.
What’s left
of will be impacting the Middle Atlantic and Northeast, Sunday into Monday.
Southwest Pennsylvania will see rain starting Sunday morning. The clouds and
rain shield will advance north and east during the day on Sunday, reaching the
Hudson Valley and western New England Sunday night, then move into northern New
England Monday morning.
Rainfall
will be locally moderate to heavy at times, across the Middle Atlantic into
southern New York State and southern New England. These areas look to see a general ¼ to 1.5
inches of rain, with very localized amounts of up to 2 inches. The farther
north and east you go the less rainfall you will see.
Image curtesy of Tomer Burg/Polarwx.com
Isaias is
forecast to bring up to 7 feet of dangerous and life-threatening storm surge. With 15-20 foot waves on top of that.
General
rainfall of 5-8 inches is likely. But 10 inches or more locally is very
possible. All of this could lead to flash flooding across the central Gulf
Coast.
As often the case with landfalling hurricanes, there is a threat for tornadoes in outer rainbands as the center approaches land Friday, then possibly again Saturday in parts of the Southeast.
Several days ago, I mentioned that we would have to watch the eastern Pacific, to see if it could interact with what is going on over North America. We we’re going to see Rachel impact western US and merge into the Snowstorm that will be impacting the southwest Canada into the Rockies. Then we have Tropical Storm Simon that is also going to bring rain into the Southwest US.
