A great day ahead!

 

Surface chart and radar.

 

 

Today

We have high pressure in control for the entire region. Temperatures and Humidity levels are a bit higher than yesterday. We do have that low pressure frontal system over the Upper Great Lakes. The entire region is currently dry. But we can see the rain associated with the frontal system to the west.  Starting tonight, as the warm front gets closer, temperatures and dewpoints will rise, spotty showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder will be possible during the overnight before sunrise in far western New York State and Pennsylvania.

 

Rest of the week

 

 Tomorrow, warmer temperatures and higher Humidity, Scattered Showers/Thunderstorms Develop during the morning across western parts of the region. Over western New York State and western Pennsylvania showers and thunderstorm will be isolated to scattered. These thunderstorms will likely intensify and increase in coverage as they push east toward Central Pennsylvania and Central New York State. Some of these storms will be strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for severe weather over part of New York State into Pennsylvania and northern Maryland, with a Marginal Risk over most of the rest of New York State, Pennsylvania into the rest of the northern Middle Atlantic and western New England.  The greatest risk will be damaging wind gust, heavy rain, leading to a chance for some flash flooding. There will also be the risk for some hail, frequent lightning along with the chance for a couple of tornadoes. Those at the highest risk of seeing severe storms will be the Lower Hudson Valley, Mohawk Valley, the eastern Catskills, down into eastern Pennsylvania. It's possible The SPC expands this slight risk into New Jersey.

We will have a partial lunar eclipse Thursday night. With 96.2% of the lunar surface appearing reddish. The eclipse begins prior to the end of the game at 9:23 p.m., reaching a maximum at 12:12 a.m. Friday morning. Cloud cover could be an issue for us, especially those in the eastern half of the region.

Friday the cold front stalls out along the coast.  Keeping things unsettled.

Saturday and Sunday, don’t look too bad, but a trough will be over the region, so a few isolated showers will be possible both days.

Monday will see a southwest flow develop this will allow temperatures and dew points to climb, with conditions becoming muggy.  There will be the chance for some isolated rain showers and thunderstorms.  The heat and dewpoints continue to climb for Tuesday, with a better chance for rain showers and thunderstorms.  Then on Wednesday a cold front will swing through, with the hot and humid conditions widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms are likely. Some of these storms will be strong to severe.

 

Tropics

Invest 95L is done and is no longer being monitored.

Invest 96L

Invest 96L is a fairly strong tropical wave just southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. 96L continues to race westward through the eastern Atlantic at around 20mph.  – It hasn’t changed too much since Tuesday, with an estimated pressure 1009mb and max winds of around 35 mph. most of the convection is displaced to the southwest of the estimated center. 96L is dealing with dry air, and currently a little windshear. It’s going to continue to deal with the dry air over the next several days, with wind shear becoming a bit more problematic in 4 to 5 days.  96L is on the cusp of becoming a depression, but development is going to be slow. The National Hurricane Center has lowered the development odds to 60% for both the 2-day and 7-day. As long as conditions remain somewhat marginal this has a chance to become a depression over the next couple of day.

The next name on the list is Dolly.