Surface
Chart, Radar and Satellite
High
pressure is off the coast, with a southwest flow allowing temperatures to warm
making it feel more like August than October.
Today into tomorrow we’re going to be dealing with above average
temperatures, but these unseasonably warm conditions won’t last. As temperatures
fall back by the weekend.
Tonight, and
tomorrow a slow-moving cold front is going to move through, bringing scattered
showers. Isolated showers will move into
western and northern New York State this evening. The showers will become more
widespread during the overnight into Friday morning. The same can be said for northern New England,
with a few showers late this evening and tonight. The rain will become more
widespread Friday morning and the first part of Friday afternoon. As the cold
front continues to pass through the region on Friday rain showers will make it
into northwest Pennsylvania mid to late morning. These showers will continue to
push northwest to southeast and push into eastern Pennsylvania and central New
England late Friday afternoon and evening. As the front moves closer rain will
move into southern New England, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey and southeast
Pennsylvania evening and night, into early Saturday morning. This won’t be a huge rainmaker. Ahead of the cold front on Friday temperatures
will be very warm and it will feel a bit muggy.
High
pressure will move back in place for the weekend By Saturday afternoon the
front will be off the southeast New England Coast and will be stalling south of
the Mason Dixon Line. Temperatures will be running seasonal to slightly below
average over the weekend. Sunday we’re going to see another cold front north of
the Great Lakes push northwest to southeast. The front will be moisture
starved, but it will be capable of some isolated rain showers. Behind these
front temperatures are going fall and become below to well below average for
the first part of October. For Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday high pressure
will be sitting overhead. Humidity will be very low, leading to cold well below
average temperatures. Tuesday thru Thursday, will feature the chance for
frost/freeze issues for parts of the region. Northern parts of the region will
likely see the end of the growing season.
The
pattern is evolving
The winter pattern is starting to become much more noticeable; we’re seeing a cold air and storminess set up over Siberia along with the Chukchi Peninsula and the Seward Peninsula of Alaska, the cold and stormy conditions extend across Alaska into the Yukon, Northwest Territories and northern British Columbia. This is October, so this is expected for this time of year. Over the next couple of weeks this is going to continue with strong storms developing.
These areas of low pressure will move across northern Canada. This is leading to the pattern I talked about in the winter outlook. Due to the very strong El Nino heating things up near to the equator and that colder air heading south out of Canada. The subtropical jet is really going to become very strong. Those storms in the Pacific Jet are going to drop into the West Coast By the middle of October into the first part of November; these storms are going make for an active subtropical Jet as they move west to east along it.
All of this
is covered in great detail in the winter outlook
