The Storm
Prediction Center (SPC) has a Slight Risk for severe storms, across Western New
England, New York State, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware. The SPC
has a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms over Eastern New England.
The surface chart shows the location of the slow-moving strong cold front getting ready to move across the region this afternoon through tonight. Ahead of and along the front rain showers and thunderstorms will move through region for northwest to southeast.
Unlike Friday,
the wind profile is going to be more supportive for the development of severe
thunderstorms, including the possibility for a few discreet supercell
thunderstorms.
The biggest
threats will be locally damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours. There will
also be the risk for hail, frequent lightning and even the risk for an isolated
tornado or two.
The greatest
chance for severe weather across the region will be between 2 PM and 11 PM
today. General rainfall will be half of an inch to an inch. But those who get
under severe thunderstorms could see rainfall of 2 to 3 inches, which could lead
to Isolated to scattered localized flash flooding due to torrential downpours. The timing of the front looks to be enough
that the severe threat southern New England will be less, rain and
thunderstorms will move through between 9 PM and 4 AM. There is a chance some of
these could be severe with gusty winds and the possibility for heavy downpours.
Here’s a
look at the SPC’s excessive rainfall outlook.
The map
shows northern New York state, northern Vermont, northern New Hampshire and a
large part of Maine under a 10-20% chance of flash flooding. With the rest of
Maine, western New England, New York State, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware,
New Jersey at a 5-10% chance of flash flooding.
Behind the
cold front cooler and lower humidity will move into the region for Monday and Tuesday.
Tuesday will see temperatures start to climb, but it will still be comfortable.
The chance for higher temperatures will increase for Wednesday into Friday, along
with rain showers and thunderstorms, late Wednesday and Thursday could see more
severe weather.
Stay weather
aware today and have a way to be warned if severe weather approaches your
area.
