The high pressure is now sitting directly overhead, Providing completely dry conditions and lots of sun for the region.
After a very cold start we are starting to warm a bit under that April sun. The sun is quickly melting all the snow we got over the last couple of days. On the satellite we can see the system off the coast that is racing out into the Atlantic. We also have some precipitation up over the upper Great Lakes ahead of that frontal system over the Upper Midwest. The system in the midwest Isn't really going to impact our region as it's going to pass well toward north as it heads into Canada. But we do have a system that is further north up in Canada that is going to approach us later this week and over the weekend.
Until then, the high pressure that's overhead right now is going to provide nice weather. we are going to see temperatures continue to become warmer, as the flow becomes more southernly.
Tomorrow we are going to see a front approaching. But this is going to end up stalling out just north and west of the region Thursday into Friday. As the High pressure continues to drop south east and moving away. Southern winds are going to pick up and it's going to become quite gusty on Thursday. But that flow is going to direct much warmer air into the region So our temperatures are going to end up 15 to 20 °F warmer than they are today.
Where's the frontal boundary close by We could see a few showers South and east Into northern and western New York State down into western Pennsylvania Thursday evening into Thursday night. Friday we're going to see the cold front moving through with rain showers along and ahead of the frontal boundary. The rain will be reaching the Middle Atlantic Late friday into early Saturday morning. This isn't going to be a major rainfall event. But many of us can use all the water we can get! Friday ahead of the front it is going to continue to be mild. Behind the front temperatures are going to slightly cool down Friday and Saturday.
Sunday is going to see high pressure setup once again overhead, We're going to see a warm front Lifting into the region Sunday into Monday. This is going to allow temperatures once again to become quite mild. Move the front There will be a chance for isolated to scatter rain showers. For Tuesday We are going to see A cold front Approach This looks to slow down Possibly stall New York state and to Pennsylvania. The frontal boundary will bring rain showers along with a chance for a few thunderstorms. This frontal boundary It's going to be meandering around a little bit Tuesday and Wednesday. Keeping things a little unsettled with a wide variations in temperature depending on how that boundary sets up.
I work very hard on long range forecasting. This sort of thing is very difficult to find on social media and other weather outlets. So I do hope you all check out yesterday's post That was part 2 of a post I did a few days earlier than that that was talking about The developing El Nino and what that could possibly mean going forward. These sort of post Haven't been getting the views that I would like them to get To justify the amount of time I put into them. So please take a look and let me know what you think.
Here is the NMME July to October forecast For global SSTS. That east based El Nino does show up very well.
