The system that brought a little bit of snow to the northern Middle Atlantic Is pulling away.
Today is going to be very cold with daytime temperatures across the region running 15-30 ° F below average. New York State and New England will see a lot of sun! But Pennsylvania and the Middle Atlantic will be dealing with clouds.
Because of the lack of upstream blocking; the pattern is very fast and progressive. The current pattern favors a lot of clippers moving across the Northeast. This means we're going to see a lot of shortwave disturbances in the northern polar jet. But we are still going to see some systems in the Subtropical jet as well. But for the time being The pattern is so progressive that none of these should phase with each other.
For Saturday and Sunday temperatures are going to still be below average. But they will be a bit warmer than they are today.
Saturday will have high pressure over the region, with a disturbance up in Canada bringing scattered snow showers and flurries for northern New York State and northern New England, along with lake effect bands sitting up downwind of the lakes during the afternoon into the evening.
Sunday we're going to have a clipper bring another reinforcing shot of cold air moving back into the region. As another cold front moves through. With this front there is a good chance for widespread snow showers across New York State into northern Pennsylvania and New England. There will also be lake effect setting back up off the lakes.
As I've been saying for the last few days, next week is going to be seeing a series of these clippers move through. These clippers in the northern stream aren't gonna have tons of moisture with them, due to the cold/arctic temperatures over Canada into the northern tier of the US. But they will be capable of light snow showers that could drop a few inches, along with lake effect developing downwind of the Great Lakes.
High pressure will be building in for Monday. So temperatures will be quite cold. But we will be seeing more in the way of sun. Then on Tuesday another clipper comes through, Bringing similar results to the clipper that went through on Sunday. Then another clipper will work its way through for later Wednesday into Thursday. The snow shield with this one will likely be a little further north than the previous two. So southern Pennsylvania into Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey could see a bit of warm air trying to sneak in; resulting in a better chance for a mix or rain. With areas north and west of there having a better chance for snow This will be especially true across northern into central New York State and northern into central New England. Depending on the exact track the clipper takes, there could be a mix or rain across northeastern Pennsylvania into southern New England as well. It's just a little too far out to know for sure. The parade of clippers is going to continue for later next friday Into Saturday.
The teleconnections are showing that la Nina is weakening. This is going to continue as we head for mid winter. The upper air pattern suggest we are going to see dominant troughing over eastern Canada and the eastern US for at least the next 2 weeks. This is supported by the Madden Julian Oscillation moving from phase 7 and now being in phase 8. Phase 7 supports ridging in the Gulf of Alaska and troughing generally over the eastern US. While phase 8 shifts the ridging up around Greenland. But keeps the northeast under a general trough.
For at least the next couple of weeks we are also going to continue to see these bouts of arctic cold move into the region. As the polar vortex remains rather weak and we're going to continue to see it stretching. This is going to keep the region fairly cold on average for much of December. But then, if you read my winter outlook you already knew this was gonna be the case!
None of these disturbances are going to be blockbuster events but their effects will be cumulative. So northern parts of the region will be continuing to slowly add to their snow base over the next couple weeks. All of the things I'm looking at are showing this general active and colder patten lasting into mid January. I expect temperatures will gradually warm over the next few weeks. So with plenty of cold, the snow is going to build into the Middle Atlantic over the next couple of weeks.
Have a great weekend!
