Yesterday's clipper is pulling to the east And radar shows Lake effect snow Continuing to fall downwind of the lakes. Today is much warmer than it was yesterday But as the cold front slides through these temperatures are going to plummet For tomorrow into the weekend.
Another look at the big picture.
Over the last couple of days this storm has been trending north; As of now that trend is still there.
Courtesy of tropical tidbits
That incredibly strong Arctic high pressure Is going to drive Arctic air Into the United States. At the same time We have that upper level low That will track off in the pacific And across Baja California. The upper level low is going to inject warm moist air With a lot of water vapor being injected into the frontal boundary from the Gulf of America. They have warm air Is going to overrun The cold air being ejected south.
This is going to be a catastrophic ice storm for Texas all the way into the Tennessee valley, The Carolinas and Virginia.
EURO
NAM
The medium range NAM model Is just starting to come into range and it looks very similar To the two global models
As I said yesterday, this storm is looking like it's going to be a miller B, So we're going to see the low pressure tracking north and east just to the west of the Appalachians. As the low tracks towards Tennessee It is going to be pulling that warm air Northward with it. With that extremely strong area of high pressure sitting to the north, That area of low pressure can only go so far north, To me it looks like it will make it to West Virginia. Then we're going to see the energy transfer to the Mid Atlantic Coast and develop into a coastal low. As I've been saying, that strong high pressure is going to direct a lot of cold air Into the region. The air over the weekend is going to be the coldest air we've seen in quite some time. This cold air is going to wedge itself to the east of the Appalachians. Setting the stage for a possible monster storm.
A look at the national weather service Watches advisories and warnings ahead of this coming event
The warnings and advisories East of lake Ontario Has to do with the ongoing lake effect snow falling downwind of lake Ontario. These are going to stay in place into tomorrow. We are still a few days out from the event so because there's still some uncertainty the national weather service isn't issuing warnings and stuff for the nor'easter across new the rest of New York State into New England at this time.
A very early look at possible impacts
The coast of New Jersey down into the Chesapeake Bay could see a change over to rain. But if this is a direct hit, With the bitter cold the snow to liquid ratio is going to be 15-1 to 20-1 even 25-1 is possible. If this is the case and trying to keep things conservative; Western Maryland all of Pennsylvania much of New Jersey all of New York State and the vast majority of New England would have a good shot at seeing 8-16 inches of snow with possibly locally higher amounts. The current scenario would put 4-8 inches of snow/mix across much of eastern Maryland (Including DC and Baltimore), Delaware into southern New Jersey away from the Coast, before a changeover to sleet and ice. If the storm can push far enough north and more west allowing it to inject some warm air, Philadelphia, New York City and Long Island could see some mixing as well. Mixing would cut down on snow totals. So if that happens, these areas could see 4-10 inches of snow.
As the coastal low deepens it will likely become a nor'easter as it tracks north and east. This is going to drag a lot of moisture off from the Atlantic and direct it into interior parts of Pennsylvania New York state as well as New England. With the extremely cold air that will be locked in place this moisture is going to be all snow. That temperature gradient Is also going to try to be become a catalyst and possibly blow this storm up into something major. Winds for Sunday into Monday are going to be likely quite strong.
Remember this is not an actual forecast It's only a look at what looks to be setting up. As I've been saying this is not yet set in stone and there's still time for this solution to alter and possibly have this storm a little further south and east. Bought the window for southern shift in the track Is closing.
That's it for now
