A look at the week ahead
We have an intense storm approaching from the west!
This storm really started developing Yesterday near the Rockies. It is now pulling in a lot of moisture from the Gulf increasing dew points and the severe risk. Today all of this is going to kick off a lot of severe weather for the Gulf coast, Ozarks, Southeast into the Midwest and the Ohio Valley as it heads for the Great Lakes. The severe risk continues to increase for tomorrow!
As I said a few days ago this looked to be the biggest severe setup we've seen so far this spring. At the time, I said this would be due to trough orientation and timing. This is still the case and the storm prediction center agrees with that.
This incredibly strong area of low pressure is going to move out of the Great Lakes into Canada. As the trough moves from west to east it is going to take on a negative tilt. This will increase the risk for severe weather.
With the setup and dynamics this is going to bring us a lot of rain, strong winds and thunderstorms
There is going to be a lot of heavy snow on the west and north side of the strong area of low pressure. For our region this track is going to have us in the warm sector. On Monday our temperatures are going to be in the 50s into the low 70s.
We are going to have a warm front moving through That's going to kick off strong southern winds. These winds are going to push in very mild air into our region. Winds of 20-30 miles an hour with wind gust of 40-60 miles an hour plus will be possible ahead of the cold front.
During the afternoon into Monday evening we are going to see a few squall lines Move across the region. With the very warm temperatures added moisture and increasing wind sheer. Widespread severe weather across the southern half of our region is likely
General rainfall looks to be 1-3 inches. Localized higher amounts are very possible. This will be especially true for areas that end up seeing training thunderstorms (Training is when you get several rounds of heavy rain that moves over the same area). This is going to lead to the possibility of some stream and river flooding
Some of these thunderstorms are going to be strong to severe With the possibility of strong damaging winds, large hail, frequent lightning, heavy downpours and possibly even some tornadoes. Those with the biggest chance of seeing some severe storms will be across Pennsylvania into New Jersey and especially across eastern Maryland and Delaware. The storm protection center As a Moderate Risk for severe weather South of the Mason Dixon Line Into eastern Maryland including Washington DC. There is a Slight and Enhanced Risk for severe storms Delaware most of New Jersey and much of Pennsylvania into the southern tier of New York State. The timing of the front has Western Pennsylvania at a Marginal Risk. A Marginal Risk is also up over the southern half of New York State The setup is less supportive of severe weather up over the rest of New York State into New England. It's possible we see an upgrade or even expansion of these Severe alert areas.
We will have to be on the watch for Bow Echoes developing within the squall lines. Wherever the squall lines develop There would be an increased risk for straight line damaging winds. The setup does support the possibility of some discrete supercells over parts of Pennsylvania into the rest of Middle Atlantic. We're also going to have to be wary of the chance for some embedded tornadoes within these squall lines. The low level winds are gonna be strong enough that thunderstorm should be fairly quick moving. So Make sure your phone is charged and alerts are on and if you have a weather radio make sure it's on as you might not have a lot of time to prepare for severe storms approaching your area. The risk for a strong to possibly even intense tornado can't be completely ruled out. This will be especially true in Maryland including Washington DC and Baltimore.
As the cold front comes through late Monday into Tuesday, Winds will switch to the west and Temperatures are going to plummet We will likely see a 20-30 °F temperature drop behind the front. Be prepared for the chance for a flash freeze Monday night into Tuesday morning. The heaviest snow is gonna be from Michigan up into and through southeastern Canada Where two to as much as four feet of snow will be possible.
Snow amounts across northern New York State into northern New England won't be as much as that. But there will be widespread heavy wet snow. There is also going to be the risk of some sleet and freezing rain. With the fast moving nature of the system Snow amounts will be lighter with a few inches of snow possible This will be especially true in the higher elevations.
On Saint Patrick's day Tuesday lake effect is likely going to be falling downwind of the Great Lakes. As gusty northwest to west winds continue.
Behind the system for the midweek it's going to be blustery and seasonally cold. The rest of the week is going to stay unsettled with chances for rain and scattered snow showers everyday.
These cooler temperatures are gonna be with us for at least the rest of March!
