It got very warm yesterday. However the first of two cold fronts dropped through yesterday and into the night has cooled us back off a little. But Saturday's temperature are still likely to be slightly above average. These frontal systems moving through over the next few days are also going to keep us unsettled.
Current conditions
We can see that warm front lifting toward western Pennsylvania. As this advances temperatures will rebound a bit. There could some rain showers and isolated thunderstorms accompanying the front. Then the second stronger cold front is going to drop through the region later Saturday into Sunday.
We will likely see a line of rain and thunderstorms developed during the afternoon into Saturday Night. Some of these storms will likely be strong to severe. The best timing for any severe weather is looking to be Saturday evening into Sunday morning. So we are going to have the chance for a nocturnal severe event over the Western half of New York State and Pennsylvania.
Storm Prediction Center (SPC)
The SPC has a Slight Risk of severe weather across western New York State and western Pennsylvania. The Marginal Risk is east of there extending into central Pennsylvania and central into northern New York State. These areas can expect scattered Strong to severe thunderstorms Starting this evening and going through tonight.
The main risk from these thunderstorms will be damaging winds. Rain will be moderate to heavy at times, Also expect frequent lightning. The risk for hail is low but we can't rule out at least some small hail. There will also be the risk for a few isolated tornadoes.
With all the rain we've seen this week; there will be localized flood issues across the region. So we'll need to keep an eye on the streams and rivers and be prepared to take action and evacuate if the water starts to rise.
Out ahead of the cold front conditions will become very windy for later Saturday into Sunday. Easter Sunday will see conditions improving west to east as the day goes on. There will also be the risk for isolated strong to possibly severe storms around the Delmarvia. The main risk will be strong gusty thunderstorms.
Saturday night into Sunday There will also likely be snow showers on the northern edge of that frontal boundary Accumulating snow and ice will be an issue. A trace to 3" of snow will be possible Across far northern New York State and northern Vermont into northern Maine. There will also be risk for some freezing rain. Those with the most likely chance of seeing some freezing rain will be from the Northeast Kingdom in Vermont up through northern Maine where a trace to 0.2 inches of ice will be possible.
Next week
Temperatures will be even cooler for Monday and Tuesday. Along with the sharp cool down will be the chance for snow showers for northern into central New York State and northern into central New England. A trace to 3 or 4" will be possible for these areas. This will be especially true in the typical higher elevations. Areas downwind of lake Ontario and lake Erie also will likely, once again be dealing with some like effect snow.
Wednesday we'll see high pressure move in; With this, we are going to see temperatures start to recover and start a slow climb to warmer temperatures. For Thursday into Friday a warm front will be lifting back through the region. So our temperatures should be hanging around seasonal levels.But then later on Friday a cold front is going to start dropping into the region.
After this we're gonna see strong high pressure set up over the southeast This is going to pump heat Into our region right into the 3rd week of April
