Today
We have the backdoor cold front I talked about last week, dropping south and west out of New England, and is currently setting over New York State and Pennsylvania. the front will produce variable cloud cover with scattered showers. Tonight the front will stall over the region with the continued threat of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk for strong storms over western New York State
The winds
will become southernly, this will allow for warmer and more humid conditions
across the region.
Rest of the Week
For Tuesday
and Wednesday, the dew points will continue to climb. This will increase the
thunderstorm risk, for tomorrow thru Thursday. The temperatures and humidity
will feel like Mid-August, in spite of it being meteorological fall.
For Tuesday and
Wednesday, we will be dealing with a semi-stationary frontal boundary. Both
days will feature variable clouds, scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of
these storms will be strong to severe. Here’s a look at the SPC convective
outlooks for both days.
The primary
threats will be strong damaging winds, large hail, along with the threat for heavy
downpours, bringing a localized flooding risk. There will also be a low-end tornado risk.
On Thursday scattered showers and thunderstorms accompany a cold front clearing through Thursday. Some of these storms will be severe. The severe risk will extend into Friday for southwest Pennsylvania, Maryland and Delaware. As a trough sets up over the region and pushes the storm track south. Again, the main risk will be damaging winds and hail. The farther north you are (New York State and New England) the better your chance of seeing partly to mostly sunny skies. SPC day 4 and day 5.
Behind the front
we will see a drier and comfier pattern setup for the Labor Day holiday weekend.
We will be dealing with some troughing for Saturday and Sunday, which could
bring some isolated showers. But right now, both days are looking mostly dry
and pleasant. High pressure looks to move in overhead for Sunday night and
Labor Day Monday.
Tropics
Remnants of Dolly
We still have the remnants of Dolly out in the Caribbean. There is a chance what’s left of Dolly will move into the eastern Gulf for Wednesday into the end of the coming week. Where it would have a chance to develop. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has the development odds at 10%
Invest 97L is now Potential Tropical Depression 5.
It looks very impressive on satellite imagery,
but it is still a tropical wave that is still developing, The NHC has the 2-day and 7-day odds
of development at 80%. #5 is tracking west northwest in the direction of the
Upper Texas Coast at 5 mph. The Min pressure is 1013mb, max sustained winds are
35 mph. The lack of a center means, the actual track is uncertain. So, the upper Texas coast southwest Louisiana
will have to keep a close eye on #5. Right now, this is a disturbance producing
a lot of rain.
#5 looks to
make a landfall tomorrow into early Wednesday
A Tropical
Storm Warning has been issued for the northwestern Gulf Coast from Port
Bolivar, Texas, to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line in Louisiana.
There isn’t
going to be a lot of time for development, but a tropical storm or even the
slight possibility of a hurricane can’t be ruled out. The main threat will be
heavy rain and flooding with 3 to 6 inches likely and the potential for 6 to 12
inches of rain for some.
The next name
on the list is Edouard
Have a great rest of your day!
