Fall starts at 8:05 p.m. EDT this evening.
Sorry, this is so late....
Today
Much of the
week ahead will be coolish and a bit unsettled for Pennsylvania and the Middle Atlatnic. but high pressure just to our
north, looks to keep the northern part of the region mainly dry Wednesday and Thursday; all in all,
it will be fairly nice fall weather. But that could change as we approach the
weekend.
The week
ahead
The persistent northeast – east flow over the East
Coast is going to push water into the coastal plain. So, this will enhance high tides, and even low
tides will see higher water levels than they would normally be. As the week goes
on, all of this will build on itself leading to higher and higher water levels
in the inlets, bays and sounds.
How the polar and subtropical jets interact will be very important to what happens this weekend! We have the upper-level low (ULL) over the Upper Great Lakes and developing low pressure off the Florida Coast. The low over the Great Lakes is going to track south and east; the low off the Southeast Coast is going to track north and east. Both of these will end up interacting and develop a storm, off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. The timing of all of this will be the key in how strong the Coastal Storm gets. We’ve been having shortwaves associated with the ULL in the Lakes track across Pennsylvania into the Mid-Atlantic, these also have their part to play in storm development. We also are going to have tropical moisture winging its way into the mix. This is a very complicated storm setup.
Because of
the onshore flow, tidal flooding could start tomorrow for the Delmarva up
through New Jersey. Thursday and Friday will see the coastal flooding risk
increase, with New England dealing with coastal flooding over the Weekend.
We still have the two scenarios I talked about yesterday, #1 had the storm closer to the coast and then move toward the northern Mid-Atlantic Coast., resulting in a big impact storm. #2 had the storm staying a little farther east taking some of the heavy rain with it. Both scenarios have the coastal become cut-off and meander for a few days. Those looking for this to head out to sea, will be out of luck, as the block doesn’t allow for that to happen.
As the storm
tracks northward, onshore winds and rain increase. Wind gust of 50-60 mph is
possible, with gust of hurricane force possible for some along the coast. Along
the coast, 1-2+ inches of rain is possible, with parts of southeast New England
and closer to Boston seeing a chance for 3-4 inches of rain. Rain amounts will
be falling off the farther north and west you go. This could keep part of
eastern Pennsylvania into Central New York State on the fringe. The strength
and position of high pressure over southern Canada, will have a big impact on the
exact track and when this becomes cut-off, will determine who sees what. Friday and the weekend will see a storm/nor’easter
the only question is how strong it becomes. The water off the Middle Atlantic and Southern
New England Coast are abnormally warm. With this meandering around, there is a
chance this becomes subtropical.
The Atlantic
Tropical Storm Fay has been downgraded to a tropical depression and has
max sustained winds of 35mph, min central pressure is 1010mb. TD Fay is
tracking southwest at 10mph. She ended up becoming the strongest Atlantic
tropical cyclone this season with max sustained winds of around 70mph, But she
is now in the process of dying over the open northeastern Atlantic.
We also have that tropical wave that is coming off of Africa. The NHC has
the development odds for this at 30%. As it gets off the African Coast it
should track northwest then north because of strong steering winds. Those in Europe should keep an eye on this.
