Mesoscale Discussion 2218 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026 Areas affected...Eastern Ohio into central Pennsylvania...western Maryland...and far northern West Virginia Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 649... Valid 032016Z - 032215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 649 continues. SUMMARY...Supercells across eastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania will likely grow upscale and pose a more substantial wind threat downstream into central Pennsylvania through the evening. Downstream watch issuance is expected soon. DISCUSSION...Discrete to semi-discrete supercells are evident in regional radar imagery across northeast OH and northwest PA with a few instances of severe hail noted over the past hour. Regional VWPs continue to sample elongated hodographs favorable for splitting supercells with an attendant threat for large hail for the next hour or so. Given the propensity for splitting cells and tight clustering of convection, upscale growth into one or more organized lines appears probable over the coming hours. As this occurs, the potential for severe wind should increase as convection moves into central PA where air mass recovery has been ongoing through the afternoon (MLCAPE has increased to 1000-1500 J/kg per recent mesoanalysis estimates). ..Moore.. 09/03/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 41068148 41388079 41698017 41397732 41157698 40807689 39967720 39607747 39487796 39527869 40278123 40498158 40728172 40888169 41068148 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
