The 2026-2027 Winter outlook part two

Winter is almost here, which officially starts on December 1st, and most of y’all are wondering what to expect and how wintery will it be? So, it’s time to get prepped for winter and what it might bring. which means knowing what the weather is expected to look like. here is part two of winter 2026-2027 outlook. Keep in mind, part one and two of the winter outlook are not a guarantee that will happen. It can only describe the probability that the overall three‑month period will be above‑, near‑, or below‑normal for temperature and precipitation deviations from historical averages. It can’t predict specific weather events like snowstorms or cold outbreaks. So, with that said, it’s time to get prepped for winter—which means knowing what the weather is expected to look like.

As in part one, we will look at factors behind the upcoming Winter 2026/2027, how they work, and how they can bring us colder weather and snow.  I will briefly rehash some of what was said in part one, as well as go into more detail on new factors and take a look at some analogue years with similar sea surface temperature and QBO and other patterns.

Link to part one

OK let’s start part two:

Winter 2025-2026 had a weak La Nina pattern in control, which became neural by the end of the winter. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) was negative and there was an easterly Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). The Arctic Oscillation (AO) during the core of the 2025–2026 winter, was in a negative phase, which favored cold Arctic air and storms moving south into mid‑latitudes, including North America. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) kept fluctuating between positive and negative phases, with periods of strong positive values bringing milder, stormier conditions to parts of the eastern U.S., and negative excursions producing colder, drier spells across the region. All of this allowed much of the U.S. to be colder than average for the months of December, January and February. Generally, in the Northeast, the winter was cold, snowy, and in some instances record‑setting, with above‑average snowfall for most areas, multiple major storms.

Bangor recorded 70.8 inches of snow (slightly below the 30-year average) Boston saw 60.9 inches of snow (9th on record) and Providence set a new record with 68.5 inches, NYC: 43.4 inches total (above average), Albany recorded 58.4 inches (matching the long-term average), Syracuse saw 143.1 inches (slightly above average), Buffalo 92.5 inches (slightly below average)

Snowbelts east of Lake Erie/Ontario: ended up slightly below 2024–25 totals but still above long‑term averages.

It was basically the same across much of the Mid‑Atlantic with notable impacts in Maryland, Virginia, Pennsylvania, much of the Middle Atlantic generally ended up with average to slightly above‑average snowfall. But places like Erie didn’t see as much. Erie saw 74.3 inches (below average), Washington DC 10.6 inches of snow (well below average), Baltimore recorded 17.6 inches of snow (slightly below average). But other spots saw more Pittsburgh received 51.6 inches of snow (well above average) Philadelphia recorded 30.1 inches of snow (above average), Atlantic City, NJ recorded 26.1 inches of snow (well above average)

 Overall, it was the coldest winter since 2014–15.

Winter 2026–2027

The Teleconnections that will govern winter 2026-2027 are almost exact opposites of what we saw last winter.

As I’ve said before, teleconnections are important and provide us with some clues as to the temperature and pressure patterns that can be expected during the upcoming winter. Season. The combination of all these factors and a look at analogue years with similar sea surface temperature and teleconnection patterns to what we’re seeing now, will hopefully gives us some idea what this upcoming winter has in store for the Northeast and Middle Atlantic Region.

Quick overview

 As I’ve discussed since I released part one of the winter outlook, the long wave pattern is becoming active and very amplified.  We have these strong storms crossing the Anadyr Gulf and Bering Sea and slamming into Alaska; so, the Pacific Jet is very active. Because of these strong Aleutian Lows The storm track will adjust southward and more of these storms will impact California; depending on the longwave pattern at the time, some of these storms will move into the Plains and hook back into Canada, but others will move along the Subtropical Jet across the Southern and Southeast, with some of these moving up the East Coast. During the upcoming winter a lot warmer than average air will be hanging around the northern tier of the U.S. But not all the time. As I was saying in the winter outlook, there could be quite a few nor’easters this winter.  This topsy Turvey pattern is going to be the predominate pattern for winter 2026-2027.  Warm and cold spells will impact the lower 48. This could lead to a winter pattern that will surprise many.

A look at the current global sea surface temperatures

Teleconnections

El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

The ENSO is a repeating climate pattern in the tropical Pacific that can warm or cool ocean waters, changing weather worldwide. It comes in three phases

El Nino – Warm phase: This is when Sea surface temperatures (SST) in the central/eastern tropical Pacific are above average. The 2^nd phase is La Nina – Cool phase: SST in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific are below average. The final phase is Neutral – Normal phase: Ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are near average; winds and circulation are typical.

But we have to remember El Nino is much more than just about some warm water thousands of miles away. It’s about the atmospheric response to all that warm water from the troposphere to the stratosphere.

As I’ve said in many posts, this year’s El Nino is already categorized as Very Strong (Super), and it very well could grow even stronger before likely peaking in November or December. This super El Nino is likely going to bring overall warmer-than-average temperatures, and higher-than-average precipitation across our entire region.

So far this Fall, the atmospheric "background state" is already mirroring strong El Nino conditions and will likely do so for the entire upcoming winter, so the pattern has been very El Nino like.

The latest weekly values as of October 15, 2026 of the Nino3.4, Nino3 and Nino1+2 SST indexes are +2.4, +3.4 and +4.4 degrees C respectively. That places them in near to record levels. But while El Nino is the main driver, it’s not the only one!

This super El Nino event is likely to peak during mid-November-to- mid-December period or there abouts. It should stay very strong through the upcoming winter season, then likely start to slowly weaken during the later Spring into Summer, before ending next Fall, where it could start to evolve toward another La Nina.

Super El Nino

Accelerated El Nino growth

The latest analysis from NOAA CRW Ocean data shows the ENSO area covered in very strong anomalies. You can see the peak warmth in the eastern parts reaching well over 12°F above normal over a large area. This is a substantial anomaly, with very rapid El Niño growth. And we haven’t even reached peak strength which could be 2 months away.

The unusually rapid growth shows up very well in graph analysis for the main ENSO region. It compares the evolution of the current versus past Super El Nino events. You can see right away that the 2026 Super El Nino temperature anomaly is much stronger and far above all the previous events.

 

Below is the subsurface temperature anomaly across the tropical Pacific. In the top 200m (650ft) of the ocean, you can see the engine of the 2026/2027 Super El Nino event: a powerful downwelling Kelvin Wave (I talked about Kelvin Waves in a previous post), with peak anomalies over 18°F above average. The warm subsurface water is still pushing eastward and continues to rise toward the surface.

 

 

 

A compilation of computer forecast models suggest this El Nino’s peak in region 3.4 (central Pacific) may not come until sometime during November/December. Plot courtesy NOAA, ECMWF, JAM, Canadian Met Centre, CCSR/IRI 

 

PDO

The PDO, is often described as a long-lived El Niño-like pattern. The extreme phases from the PDO are also classified by sea surface temperatures, either being warm or cool in the interior North Pacific and along the U.S. West Coast. The PDO often tracks along with ENSO, and the effects can be enhanced when both are in the same phase. As I covered in part one, the PDO is currently strongly negative and will likely stay that way through the entire winter.

With a typical negative PDO pattern, ridges of high pressure set up over both coasts, while an upper-level trough of low pressure sits over the nation’s midsection. This usually results in the northern Plains being colder than normal, and the Southwest and Southeast averaging warmer.

Last winter saw the PDO and La Nina work hand in hand. This year the PDO will be at odds with the El Nino.

 

QBO

 

The QBO and its connection to the polar vortex is strong. It has a lot of influence on the circulation pattern in the Stratosphere. In this way, it can lead to episodes of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events, which could cause a disruption of the polar vortex. As I’ve said many times sudden stratospheric warming is a rapid temperature spike above the Arctic that can weaken or split the polar vortex (polar vortex is a large, persistent area of low pressure and extremely cold, rotating air surrounding Earth’s poles, which is strongest in winter) often leading to colder, stormier weather in parts of eastern North America in the weeks that follow.

Winter 2025-2026 saw an easterly QBO. During the easterly phase the polar vortex tends to be weaker, which increases the risk for SSW events. When the PV weakens or splits into multiple pieces (like we saw last winter and during the 2022-2023 winter season) This winter is going to be the exact opposite. Winter 2026-2027 will have a western QBO. So, we’re going to likely be dealing with a stronger polar vortex which will reduce the chances for sudden warmings. Helping the cold air to generally remain bottled up in the Arctic.

All of these factors Super El Nino, strong negative PDO and a westerly QBO are very rare. So, this winter is going to be very unique.  

 

Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcanic eruption

I’ve mentioned this in the last few winter outlooks. This winter won’t be an exception 

Is still having an impact on the Stratosphere and is making long-term forecasting much more complex, due to all the extra water vapor in the atmosphere.  Since January 2022, all that water vapor has had an influence on the polar vortex. It has caused the polar vortex to be much more volatile than it was previously. Over the last few winters there has been a lot more stretching of the vortex.  

With this in mind. We’re already seeing the development of a sudden stratospheric warming; this is an unusually early disruption of the polar vortex. 

 

 

This is a Powerful east based El Nino. So, it will be dominated by a southward and eastward shift of the U.S. jet stream. A Super El Nino pattern also strongly impacts the snowfall potential. When an active southern jet stream overlaps periodic cold air drops from Canada, it can shift the primary winter storm corridor farther south than usual. This will make it even more likely that the Jet stream shifts south/east, will send storms along the subtropical jet, steering storms away from the central U.S. and toward the East Coast. With the El Nino so strongly east based, there is a very great chance for an increased frequency of storms coming up and impacting the east coast.

Warm Atlantic

I’ve talked several times about the very warm Atlantic. Those warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic can significantly alter winter weather patterns by modifying atmospheric circulation, ocean–atmosphere interactions, and large-scale climate modes.

All that heat enhances the latent heat, which can help strength low level jet as well as modify the position and intensity of the northern and southern Jets. Because of this it can storm tracks and influence temperature patterns over North America. All of that heat can aid the El Nino effect, by modulate the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), it could also alter the polar vortex and influencing winter storm tracks and temperature extremes. While also influencing the broader temperature and precipitation patterns across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

Analogues

If you’re familiar with my long-range outlooks, you know I place a lot of emphasis on past patterns that were to the current one and try to use those outcomes as a pattern‑matching guide to the upcoming season might look like.

Analog years featuring a similar setup this this winter.

These years had a similar SST pattern to what is going on now in the global oceans. So we had to look at years that featured strong to very strong El Nino’s. during the winter seasons.  Indeed.

 I believe the winter seasons of 1957-1958, 1965-1966, 1972-1973, 1982-1983, 1991-1992, 1997-1998, 2015-2016, 2023-2024 featured somewhat analogous sea surface temperature patterns compared to today’s environment and their average temperature and precipitation patterns during the winter seasons can provide us with a clue as to what we can expect.

Average breakdown of temperature anomalies during the analog years; courtesy NOAA

Average December to March precipitation anomaly pattern for the analog years; courtesy NOAA

These analog years featured winter seasons in which overall average temperatures were above-normal across the northern US and below-normal in southern areas of the US.  The Mid-Atlantic region was sandwiched between these two zones with near normal to slightly above normal conditions on average during these strong El Nino analog years. 

 An interesting finding with respect to temperatures in these selected analog years is revealed when looking at the breakdown of anomalies on a month-to-month basis. There was a clear tendency for the eastern two/thirds of the nation to experience a much warmer-than-normal start to the winter during the month of December, and then colder-than-normal conditions dominated the southern states and parts of the Mid-Atlantic region during January and February.

 Northern Hemisphere snowpack

A review of the northern hemisphere snow cover extent shows a highly variable pattern.

 Northern Hemisphere

Current Snowfall Extent in Alaska and Canada

Alaska

Both Alaska and parts of Canada are currently showing snow cover well below the 1998–2011 historical average, according to the latest satellite and operational data.

The National Snow and Ice Data Center’s “Snow Today” platform shows the western U.S. and Alaska combined far below the 26‑year average. But snow cover across northern Alaska is higher than it was at this time last year.

 Canada:

 The Canadian Cryospheric Information Network shows snow cover extent is below average in many provinces and territories, with some regions showing strong negative anomalies

  

Siberian Snow Cover

While the Siberian snowpack alone does not ensure a warm or cold winter, it is one of the key players behind my winter forecast.

With the exception along Russia’s Arctic Coastline in the north. Snow cover across Siberia has been quickly increasing after September, according to Rutgers University, much of the Russian interior between the Ural Mountains in the west and Pacific Coast in the east has an above-average snowpack. This early-season expansion documented across Northern and Northeastern Russia. is a reversal from what we’ve seen in recent years, where snowpack was generally below average. Russia will likely see a continued increase in snowpack along its southern borders with Mongolia and China with an active storm track. This will further serve to grow the extent of Siberian snow cover as we move through the rest October.

Extra snow and ice cover can allow pools of colder air to be more prevalent. This increased snow cover could help define the pattern I’ve been talking about across North America.  

 What goes on in Baffin Bay, located to the west of Greenland. Will also have a part to play in the upcoming winter; how much ice forms will be another key in how storms along the East Coast.

 

 NOAA’s Winter Outlook

 NOAA’s Updated Winter Temperature Outlook

NOAA’s temperature outlook favors warmer-than-average conditions across much of the northern United States, including the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast.

 

 NOAA’s Winter Precipitation Forecast

NOAA favors above-normal precipitation across much of the southern United States, including California, the Southwest and portions of the southern Rockies. The wetter signal also extends across much of the Southeast and along the East Coast.

 

 A look at temperature and precipitation anomalies

Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic temperature anomalies

A breakdown of temperature and precipitation anomalies

In the top panel, you can see snowfall accumulation for a specific region. The red line shows the snowfall forecast trend. While the black line shows the historical baseline. It makes it easy to compare them to each other.

The bottom panel shows the same timeline for that part of the region as in the graph. This can help break down differences in snowfall across that area. 

First, we will look at the two panels for winter 2026/2027 snowfall over time for New York State and New England, compared with average

The entire season

 

Month by Month

 

Second, we will look at the panels for the Middle Atlantic Region, compared with average

 

 

The entire season

 

Month by Month

 

Regional temperature and precipitation thoughts!

This is the part of the outlook, I’m least sure about

New York State and New England

For the 2026–2027 winter New York State and New England forecast it will be very tricky and volatile. Overall, it will be an El Nino‑driven season. But other teleconnections like the PDO, QBO and others, will make things interesting with frequent heavy, wet snow episodes—especially in the last half of winter—alongside rapid freeze‑thaw cycles and above‑normal precipitation risks.

El Nino tends to shift storm tracks offshore, increasing the number of nor’easters, but whether they bring rain or snow depends on temperature profiles.

When I looked at the past super El Nino’s of 1982–83, 1997–98 and 2015–16, with a somewhat similar setup.

every one of those El Nino years, overall were several degrees warmer than usual.

I tried to come up with some idea of what snowfall could look like in some of the cities across our region.

Buffalo looks to see overall seasonal snowfall of 55 to 75 inches. Syracuse likely sees between 85.0 to 140 inches.  Albany 40.0 to 70 inches, Boston 15 to 50 inches

The Mid-Atlantic region

As far as temperature, winter 2026-2027 will likely end up slightly warmer than the long-term average.

 But due to the storm track looking to favor an active southern jet stream, with several coastal/nor’easter storms likely. I do think the seasonal snowfall amounts in the I-95 corridor (major cities) are going to be slightly above to above average. New York City could see 5 to 18 inches above their general long-term average of around 30 inches. Philadelphia   could see 7-20 inches above what is considered their average of 23.1 inches.  Washington DC could see 6 to 18 inches above their 13.7-inch average.

The region as a whole

The Polar vortex will lead to at least one arctic air outbreak for the region to deal with; especially, during the second half of the winter. The entire region will likely see winter get off to a slow start, before we start to get colder for January and February.

Precipitation is likely to end up above the long-term average. But temperatures are going to be highly changeable, means what type of precipitation the region sees will depend on that volatile temperature profile. The entire region will see rain, ice/mix events, and snowfall, the analogue years show a strong prospect for at least on blockbuster event. With the idea of nor’easters being above what is considered average there will likely be surprises with how much snow ends up across the region. Who sees what will be highly dependent of the individual storm track of those nor’easters.  So, the seasonal snowfall ideas I presented could end up completely wrong, especially across the eastern half of the Northeast and Middle Atlantic.

The southern Appalachians could end up well above average when it comes to snowfall

 Lake-effect snowfall just downstream of the Great Lakes are likely to be below-normal this winter season given the expected overall warmer-than-normal conditions and reduced temperature contrast with the water temperatures.

 Summary

The current El Nino event will be the primary driver through the Spring 2027 season But the QBO and its relationship with the stratospheric polar vortex along with Atlantic SSTs in some areas as well as the negative phase of the PDO will also be major players in what unfolds.

The 2026-2027 Winter will be erratic and feature sharp contrasts, due to the active southern storm track. We can expect the temperatures to fluctuate, leading to periods of cold interspersed with milder breaks quick bursts of snow and cold along with a mix of rain, sleet/ice, and heavy wet snow in the Northeast and Middle Atlantic

I used the winters of 1957-1958, 1965-1966, 1972-1973, 1982-1983, 1991-1992, 1997-1998, 2015-2016, 2023-2024 as analogues.

This is likely to end up being the strongest El Nino in the written history. So, most are expecting a very warm winter. given the very strong El Nino events of 1982-1983, 1997-1998 and 2015-2016 all occurred during the positive phase of the PDO, where this winter will be the first recorded super El Nino with a negative PDO. So, relaying on those past super El Nino’s very well could lead us down the wrong path, with a negative PDO and westerly QPO thrown into the mix complicates the seasonal forecast to a huge degree, we’re basically in uncharted territory.  

Keep in mind, this outlook is not a guarantee how to season will exactly play out. The entire season see warm and dry periods, with cold weather and snowstorms mixed in.