December 30th, 2024

 

Daily forecast discussion…

The surface chart shows low pressure and the cold front pushing to the east. Today winds are still gusty, with temperatures slightly cooler behind the front, but the temperatures will stay above average for the next 36 to 48 hours.

A little shortwave near Lake Ontario will push north and east through tonight, bringing the chance for a few rain and snow showers for Northern New York State and Northern New England.

Another system will be approaching on Tuesday, with the mild temperatures, it will start as rain showers as it moves north and east. Rain will start across southwest Pennsylvania during Tuesday afternoon. These will work across the region during the rest of New Years Eve.

General timing

For the I-95 corridor rain will likely reach Washington DC after midafternoon into the evening, then maybe clearing out by midnight. Philadelphia will see rain moving during the evening, it could be moving out just before Midnight. The showers will move into New York City during the evening likely staying to around Midnight. For Boston rain will be moving in late evening and thru Midnight. For most interior areas it will be raining New Years eve, evening into the night. Northern New York State, northern New England look to see the rain arrive after midnight.   

Rain could be heavy at times. There will also be the chance for a few thunderstorms. So, dress for the weather and bring an umbrella.  

For many of us, rain will linger into New Years Day morning, then colder air will start to move into the region behind the cold front, where it is still raining, will see rain start to change over to wet snow. Wednesday will remain blustery.  For the Middle Atlantic, Pennsylvania, southern New York State and southern New England, there could be a few snowflakes, but little to no accumulation. Northern New York State and Northern New England could see a few inches, this will be especially true for the higher elevations.

Wednesday night, as the cold air moves over the Great Lakes; Lake Effect Snow will be starting to fall downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. At first winds look to be Southeast keeping snow on the southwest side of both Lakes, then for Thursday and into Friday the bands would shift north, before shifting back South Friday night into Saturday. Lake snows should be winding down on Sunday. Under the most persistent bands several inches of lake snow will be possible.  For the rest of the region for Thursday into the weekend, winds will be breezy and there will be a chance for snow showers and squalls, this will be especially true from northern Pennsylvania and points northward.  

Sunday should be generally dry away from the lakes, as high pressure starts to build in. The high pressure won’t hang around for long as low pressure will be approaching for Monday. We’re going to see the primary low move into the lower Great Lakes and Saint Lawrence Valley. Then a secondary low will develop off the Coast, as the primary transfers its energy. Too early to go into impacts, but the cold air will be in place, so this has a lot of potential at least for some areas. Could there be a mix/snow in the coastal plain? … Maybe!

The pattern for January has been well telegraphed, so the idea of prolonged cold and chances for snowstorms should come as no surprise.

This will be my last post until Thursday. So I want to wish all y'all a Happy New Year. The New Year is a blank page waiting to be written.  As we enter the New Year, lead with courage and your heart, to write your story and create your dreams!

    

December 29th, 2024

 

Post on what to expect this week.

The surface chart shows a low-pressure frontal system approaching.  The radar shows an area of leading rain moving across northern New York State into New England.  With the approaching warm front, a south wind will bring in much warmer than average air, temperatures are going to continue to warm today into tomorrow and winds will become windy, with winds of 10-25 mph and gust of 40 to 50 mph (especially in the higher elevations). We will also have a chance for isolated gusty thunderstorms. As this progresses, rain will become widespread heavy at times later today into tomorrow.

For the vast majority of the region this will be a rain event. General rainfall totals look to be 0.25 to 1.0 inches, with the melting snow, this could lead to some flooding issues.  Parts of far northern New York State and across northern New England, there could be a mix of sleet/freezing rain, this will be especially true for the Adirondacks, Greens and Whites, as well as parts of central and northern Maine. Ice amounts of upwards of 0.2 of an inch will be possible.

Tomorrow will see these mild temperatures continue. As the system pulls away, rain will taper off west to east. Temperatures could cool off just enough for a bit of snow in some of the higher elevations later Monday into Monday night. But accumulations will be light. Behind the system it’s looking to be dry for a short time, then another system will be approaching out of the Ohio Valley on Tuesday, Rain will move in for western Pennsylvania by the afternoon. This will move north and east during the day. This is going to be another widespread rain event. For many of us, New Years Eve evening will be very soggy, but rain could hold off across eastern New England until the ball drop, (but no guarantee) . So, dress for the weather.

Cold air is going to come in on the backside of this, changing rain over to wet snow, many of us could see some snowflakes, but those near the Great Lakes and across northern New York State and northern New England, could see some accumulations. How much will depend of the track the storm takes.  Lake effect snow will also be an issue for those downwind of the Great Lakes into Friday, significant accumulation will be possible for those under the most proficient bands. 

 2025

Looking at January, the temperature pattern change I’ve been talking about extensively  will be starting the end of this week

 The January pattern is not only looking to be very cold, but it’s also looking to be very amplified.  So, this will be a return to what we saw end of November into the first half of December. But I think the temperature anomaly will be even colder, with greater chances for snowstorms.

We look to see a storm move out of the Pacific Northwest during the first week of January. Right now, this looks to move over the Great Lakes into the St Lawrence Valley, bringing snow/mix. Then behind this system the northern gates open up and very cold arctic air will move into the CONUS.  

A little education. 

The deep trough over the eastern half of the CONUS, looks to dig down near the Gulf Coast. That could make for a southern storm track, along the warm/moist and cold/dry air boundary that sets up (baroclinic zone (BZ)). The temperature and moisture gradient causes instability as the air rises. In the right setup, shortwaves that ride that boundary, would have the potential to blow up, and then either go out to sea, or ride up the eastern Seaboard. How these track, will depend on the trough placement and axis (orientation).  

The pattern that is developing has great potential. And should end up being exciting. The active patten would mean greater chances of snow storms. I can't talk about individual storms this far out. I can only talk about the overall pattern. But the way things are looking to trend,  I expect to be tracking many systems, how things work out will depend on track, timing and trough placement.  

 

 

December 27th, 2024

 

Daily forecast discussion…

That weak disturbance that was in the southern Plains, is moving north and east and is heading into the great Lakes, there is also a piece that broke off the disturbance that is passing just to our south.

High pressure is supplying plenty of sun with temperatures a little warmer than yesterday the surface chart and satellite imagery is showing, a weak disturbance is approaching this is heading into the great Lakes, there is also a piece that broke off the disturbance that is passing just to our south.

Clouds will be on the increase, then rain showers will develop late today, these will move north and east tonight into Saturday. We will have a little cold air wedged in, that will allow for a bit of freezing drizzle/rain.  The ice won’t be heavy but some could see upwards of tenth of an inch, especially in the higher elevations and those sheltered valley locations. It doesn’t take much ice to cause issues, so the NWS has issued Winter Weather Advisories for parts of the region. Temperatures will be warming so the ice will change over to plain rain. The 2^nd piece of this system will pass just to our west on Sunday, this will allow for more in the way of widespread rain for the region for Sunday into Monday, there will be a southern flow that will usher in much warmer temperatures for Sunday. These mild temperatures will hang round through Tuesday.

With the rain and snowmelt, flooding will be a concern for some areas.  

Most of Monday into Tuesday looks to be dry, then another system will approach bringing rain showers later afternoon these will be move west to east, by the time for New Years Eve celebrations we can expect rain to be an issue.  The rain will go into New Year’s Day, then cold air is going to wrap in behind the system, changing rain over to a mix and some snow on the backside for parts of New York State and northern Pennsylvania this will be especially true for the higher elevations. We can also expect lake effect snow downwind of the Great Lakes. All of this will move east during the day. Bringing a mix and some snow to northern parts of New England.  Areas south of this should see just rain that will be winding down during the day.

High pressure will be building in behind bringing in colder weather. The weather will be unsettled for Friday into next weekend.

 

 

 

December 26th, 2024, happy Boxing Day.

 

Daily forecast discussion…

Well Christmas and the first day of Hanukkah was very tranquil. I hope y’all had a wonderful Christmas and start of Hanukkah spending time with family and friends.

Looking at the surface chart we can see high pressure centered north of the St. Lawrence Valley pushing into the Northeast. This is the high pressure that kept the weather so nice. It's going to remain overhead, where it will keep the weather nice from the first day of Kwanzaa into the start of the weekend. The next couple of days will see seasonal to slightly below average temperatures.

The satellite image shows a couple of systems, one is leaving the Pacific Northwest heading into the Rockies, the other is over the Southern Plains. This second one will stay to our west as it moves over the Great Lakes into Canada. This will drag a warm front into the region later on Saturday, so we will see increasing clouds, along with warming temperatures.  With the front there will be isolated to scattered rain showers for many of us. But northern New York State and Northern New England could see some mix of snow/freezing rain, before a change over to rain. Those in Southeast New York State (north and west of NYC), northeast Pennsylvania, into Northwest New Jersey, could be dealing with some freezing rain. This warm front is going to linger overhead on Sunday, the region will have well above average temperatures, that will be keeping the threat for scattered rain showers over the region, I can’t rule out a chance for some mix for parts of the Greens and Whites.

As we get into New Years Eve, another low-pressure system will be approaching, this looks to scoot over the Lower Great Lakes and just to our north, so this will bring rain/mix/and some snow to the region for later Christmas Eve into New Years Day.  For Thursday we will likely be seeing lake effect snow falling downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.  There is a chance for some kind of snowstorm for January 3^rd into the 4th.  But that is going to depend on what the New Years Eve/Day storm does. If it bombs out over the Gulf of Maine, it would suppress any storm trying to come up the Coast, but if it doesn’t get in the way, there is a chance for a Coastal Storm to develop; this is a week away so we will see!

 

I’ve been talking about January turning very cold and stormy. That still looks to be the case. Strong ridging will return to the western US and Canada, with a deep trough over the east US and Canada. There is also going to be a good chance for high latitude blocking up around Greenland. I expect the first half to three quarters of January to be overall quite cold. With the pattern staying active, we can expect the parade of storms to continue moving forward. If these systems can get closer to the Gulf, they could move up the Eastern Seaboard. But the Storms track will depend on the trough placement and axis. But if some of y’all want big nor’easters, the upcoming pattern does look to be supportive to the idea.

 

 

 

 

January snowfall

 

I’ve been talking a lot about the end of December pattern and January pattern a lot. This included analysis on teleconnections like the AO, NAO, and EPO, as well as what the models have been showing.  All of this has gone into how the up and down temperature pattern will continue, along with the pattern looking to stay active, with snow chances during January.

December has gone just as the winter outlook laid out.  Around the Great Lakes, snow amounts of 150%-200% for this time in the season. Northern areas have seen several clippers, resulting in quite a few lite to moderate snow events. At the same time Parts of the I-95 Corridor have yet to see any accumulating snow, again the outlook said these areas might not see much if any snow this winter.

The Outlook explained how this winter would see a lot of Clippers and inland runners. With the chances for big coastal storms low. That doesn’t mean we won’t see any major nor’easters, just that the pattern isn’t all that supportive for them.  

While I can’t talk about exact snow amounts and who will see what for January. The chances for snowstorms are definitely there.  To illustrate this, here is the Euro EPS showing what it thinks for snow extent for January. The model is basing this on analysis of the evolving pattern. The amounts aren’t important, but the idea that accumulating snow is likely across a large part of the region is the thing I want all y’all to take from this.

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December 23rd, 2024

 

Daily forecast discussion…

I hope you were able to keep warm over the weekend. My overnight low was -20, what was yours?

Today is going to be very cold with well below average temperatures, as the high pressure starts to exit the region. temperatures will slowly warm today with tonight not as cold as last night. Then we will see moderating temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday. I will touch on this in a little bit; but first I want to cover the weather over the next couple of days.

Looking at the chart, we can see a weak clipper system is approaching, this will move over the Great Lakes then across the Northeast Monday night into Tuesday, dragging a frontal boundary with it. With the cold air in place, this will drop a snow/mix across the region, even the I-95 Corridor should see at least some snowflakes. The heaviest snow will be falling Monday night into Tuesday morning. Then the Clipper should be exiting, with lingering snow showers during the late morning and afternoon for parts of Pennsylvania, New York State and northern New England, these snow showers should be ending by the evening.

This won’t be a huge snowmaker, but it will bring northern Pennsylvania into southern New York State into western Massachusetts a general 1-3 inches of snow, across northern New York State, most of Vermont, New Hampshire and northern and down east Maine generally 3-6 inches is possible, this will be especially true for the Adirondacks, Greens and Whites, the mountains could see higher amounts in some spots.  For the rest of Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island, back into around Allentown and points north in western Pennsylvania a trace to an inch will be possible.  Philadelphia, New York City and Washington DC could see a few flakes.  Southern Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, across New York City and Long Island into far southern Connecticut, Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts will likely start as a bit of snow before changing over to a mix of snow/sleet/ice and then rain.

 

High pressure will build in for Christmas Day; this will stick around into the weekend. Keeping us mostly dry. An area of low pressure will be approaching Sunday night moving through on Monday, this will bring moderate to at times heavy rainfall to a large part of the region, but northern areas, especially in the high elevations will have to watch out for a mix. 

 

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are currently positive trending toward neutral. Then they will go negative. This will help setup for the January cold outbreak I’ve been posting on. With the NAO negative it will create blocking across Greenland. As I said the other day, the first half of January is looking quite cold. There is also an increasing data trend of snowstorms impacting the eastern CONUS. I think many of these will end up as Clippers; but depending in how trough axis set up, there will be the potential for bigger storms riding the boundary.

 

I won’t be posting anything for tomorrow and Wednesday. But I want to wish each of y’all a happy Christmas, Hanukkah and Kwanza. This is the season of gift giving, remember kindness is free. But it is also the most valuable gift you can give someone. You never know how your kindness will inspire others. I hope all y’all find joy and happiness, not only during the holiday season but beyond as well.  

 

Welcome to Winter 2024-2025

 

The Winter Solstice arrived at 4:21 this morning.

The surface and radar charts show, the Coastal storm pulling away toward the Maritimes, with an Arctic high building in, Lake effect is falling downwind of the Lakes, with lingering snow over New England behind the departing storm. The Lake and coastal snow will wind down tonight.

Tonight the winds will calm, and temperatures will become very cold tonight. Temperatures won’t recover much tomorrow. The region should generally be tranquil tomorrow into Monday. Then Monday night a clipper currently over southern Alberta, will approach, this will move through on Christmas Eve, bringing blustery winds  and widespread light snow to parts of Pennsylvania, New York State and Northern and Central New England into northwest Connecticut. With a mix over southern Pennsylvania, across southern New England, southeast New York State into Long Island and northern New Jersey.  A mix/rain south of there.

So far, this winter has featured a Pacific strong jet stream dominating the North American pattern. This is due to the well above average SST in the northern Pacific, and the cold air up over a large part of northern Canada

A strong shot of arctic air is descending on the region.

Here is a look at the 2-meter temperature anomaly, showing the arctic airmass over the region.

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There won’t be any big storms over the next 5 days, but a clipper coming through Monday night and Tuesday will bring some snow to parts of Pennsylvania, New York State and Northern into Central New England.

 

This will be followed by a warmup. Then a pattern change looks to bring back the troughing and colder air over the eastern CONUS. I’ve been talking about this pattern for quite some time. I want to show how the pattern looks to trend on the Models. So this shouldn’t be a huge surprise.

 

 

 

Past Christmas we look to have very strong high pressure over the eastern US and Canada, this will allow for warm air transport into the Northeast.

 

 

The 2 meter 5-day temperature anomaly shows the CONUS has plenty of above average temperatures past Christmas.

 

 

 

Looking past Christmas, we can see a high-pressure ridge over both the eastern US and  Canada. The 850mb temperature anomaly is showing warm air over most of North America, with a dome extending up over Canada.

 

 Long Range

This deals with looking at how the pattern looks to set up, and general model trends

 Looking at the EURO extended range, we can see the pattern flipping back to a ridge in the west and a trough here in the east. This is supported by the Eastern Pacific Oscillation looking to go negative. A negative EPO supports troughing in the Eastern CONUS.

 

The GEFS is showing the same general trend, with cold air returning to the eastern CONUS.

 

 

So, for the first half of January, the jet stream pattern looks to support a deep trough over the eastern CONUS. It also looks to support a good chance for cross polar flow events. That could make the first part of January very cold.

During this period, the pattern should stay very active, so we should be seeing more snow events. 

Based on how the pattern looks to evolve and the trends that seem to be setting up. Once we get into the 2^nd half of January, the pattern looks to flip again to one supporting troughing in the west, colder air over western North America, with more in the way of a zonal flow (west to east) and general ridging over the eastern third of the CONUS. If this does happen, then the 2^nd half of January would see more in the way of milder conditions for our region.

My winter outlook laid out the same up and down pattern we've seen so far. A look at the next 4 to 6 weeks, shows that theme looks to continue.

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December 20th, 2024

 

Daily forecast discussion…

The surface chart shows the Arctic Front approaching from the West, along with an area of low pressure developing off the Coast.  The Clipper to our west will be tracking south and east, where it will transfer its energy to the Coastal Low. The Clipper is moisture starved so it won’t bring a lot of snow with it. Western parts of New York State and northern parts of Pennsylvania could see a general 2 to maybe 4 inches out of this with some seeing as much as 3-6 inches especially in those higher elevations. Those in Southwest Pennsylvania into Western Maryland could see a T to 1 inch.   Those across Central, northern into most of eastern New York State and western Massachusetts and Vermont look to see 1-3 inches of snow. But the higher elevations of the Adirondacks and into the Green Mountains could see 2-4 inches.

The air coming in is going to be very cold, As the Coastal develops and moves north and east toward Atlantic Canada, it will work with this cold and become a powerful nor’easter. But it is enough south and east, to keep its impacts away from much of our region.  But as the cold air moves into the Middle Atlantic and southern and eastern New England it will change rain over to snow. Northern Southeast Pennsylvania (including Philadelphia, New Jersey into New York City, and far western Connecticut could see 1-maybe 2 inches. Central Connecticut into Central Massachusetts a T to an inch is likely but there could be upwards of 2 inches in the higher hills. Eastern Massachusetts (including Boston) 1 to maybe 3 inches is possible, but Southeast Massachusetts including the Cape and Offshore Islands 2-4 inches with a chance for locally higher amounts. For New Hampshire and western Maine a T to an Inch or so is likely, Eastern Maine could see 1-3 with Down East Maine seeing 3-6 inches.

The storm will be pulling away tomorrow, heading into the Canadian Maritimes, where it will bring blizzard conditions.

As the storm pulls away it will allow winds to switch to the Northwest, winds will be come gusty, with gust of 20-30 mph. This will make the Arctic air feel even colder, it will also allow for Lake Effect snow bands to setup Southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.  Those under the most persistent bands could see 3-6 inches with pockets of higher amounts possible.

Over the Weekend into Monday a series of troughs will move through keeping things a bit unsettled, with a chance for a few snow showers and flurries.  

Saturday night and Sunday strong high pressure will move in from Canada. This will shut down the lake effect, winds will diminish, but temperatures will drop even more. Northern areas could struggle to get into the teens, while places like Washington DC end up in the upper 20’s to low 30’s.

Monday continues with the Cold, with light and variable winds. For Christmas Eve, a weak system will approach and move through, this will bring light snow showers to parts of Pennsylvania, New York State and Northern and Central New England. Those south of there will likely see a mix. The best chance for any accumulation will be over the interior. Christmas Day, the system should be exiting with clearing developing west to east.      

December 19th, 2024

 

Daily forecast discussion…

Christmas is getting closer, so the travel forecast is important!

The surface chart shows our 1^st cold front is off the coast with another trying to approach the Coast.  Behind the first cold front we’re seeing a change to sun, with breezy winds and cooling temperatures.  The 2^nd cold front over Northern New England down through Pennsylvania is in the process of stalling out. There are a few hit and miss snow showers over northern parts of the region, with a bit of lake effect falling downwind of Lake Ontario.

Another Clipper currently over the Upper Midwest will be dropping South and East. Tomorrow this will be weakening over Southwest Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Virginia. From here we will see energy transfer off the Coast, where a secondary area of low pressure will develop, For later Tomorrow into Saturday.  Gusty winds will bring in frigid Arctic Air, as these winds move over Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, they will allow for lake effect snow to fall downwind of Both Big Lakes. This is going to be the coldest air so far this season for the weekend into the first part of next week.

As the storm develops off the Coast it will be moving North and East heading toward Nova Scotia. This track will keep the bulk of the storm out over the ocean. But as cold air filters in, rain will change over to some snow over interior parts of the Northeast. There are signs that the storm dynamics could allow for measurable snow into southeast Massachusetts, down into New Jersey. An accumulation of a few inches upwards of a foot of snow will be possible over parts of Pennsylvania, New York State, and Northern into Central New England. Where the boundary layer between the cold air pushing in the warm air to the east will be very important. Those along the boundary, in Down East Maine, Eastern Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Southeast and Southern Connecticut, Long Island including New York City, back into New Jersey and Southeast Pennsylvania could see the first snow of the season, with accumulations of a trace to a couple of inches. There could be locally higher amounts as well, along that boundary. Who sees what will depend on the exact track the ocean storm takes.

As the ocean storm approaches Atlantic Canada, strong high pressure will push down from Canada, this will bring even colder air for Sunday and Monday. Skies will clear and winds will subside, leading to a very cold Sunday night into Monday morning. The high pressure will also shut down the lake effect snow bands.

Tuesday a warm front will be lifting in, this could allow for snow showers, for Christmas Eve for a large part of the region. Light snow accumulations are possible. Christmas Day, looks to see lingering snow showers. But these shouldn’t cause travel issues. Thursday, another coastal storm looks to develop, this will be another complex setup, with rain, mix, and snow for the region.

 

 

December 18th, 2024

 

Daily forecast discussion…

Today’s temperatures are mild

The surface chart and radar show a Clipper system approaching from the west. Ahead of the cold front rain will move over the region late today into tonight, This will change over to wet snow for parts of Pennsylvania, New York State and Northern into Central New England, this changeover will occur first in the higher terrain.

This is going to be a quick mover, so rain/snow amounts will be light, generally 0.25 to 0.75 of an inch of rain. With those that changeover to snow, seeing a T-an inch in the valleys, then a general 1-3 inches of snow elsewhere, with the higher terrain of the Adirondacks, Greens, and Whites seeing 3 to around 6 inches. expect brisk winds with the system. The system will be pulling away on Thursday morning, allowing for clearing skies and slowly falling temperatures. Behind the departing Clipper, limited lake effect will be falling downwind of the Great Lakes, accumulations should be light.

For Friday, another disturbance will move through, this will bring widespread light rain and snow showers and windy conditions across the region, again snow amounts will be light, with perhaps a few inches in the highest elevations. Behind the front, limited lake effect will once again be falling. We’re going to see low pressure develop offshore from here it looks to track towards Nova Scotia Friday night into Saturday. The ocean system looks to stay far enough  offshore for the bulk of this to stay to the east. But it could get close enough for a bit of rain/mix/snow over parts of New England. There could even be a few snow showers over the northern Middle Atlantic and I-95 corridor, there is a chance for very light accumulations for eastern north Maryland,  north Delaware, and part of New Jersey into NYC and Long Island.  Any westward shift in the track, could bring more impacts for the region. Behind all of this Arctic air will invade the region. This will be the coldest air so far this season, just in time for the Winter Solstice which starts Saturday at 4:21 am. Saturday will be cold and windy, with Sunday being even colder but with less wind. The cold will stick around for Monday, before starting to lift out. For Tuesday into Wednesday it will be warmer, but temperatures don't look to be as warm as they did a few days ago.  There is a chance for another Clipper like system looks to move through on Christmas Eve, bringing a chance for rain for southern parts of the region, and a chance for light snow along the New York State/Pennsylvania border and northward across New York State and Northern and Central New England. Snow amounts don’t look to be impressive.  Time for this to change so we will see. After Christmas it looks to turn quite mild. But I don't think it will last; as January still looks to be very cold. 

 

 

Will there be a White Christmas?

My winter outlook said, this winter would see a seesaw temperature pattern; so far, that has certainly been the case.  The pattern has been very active. The outlook said how an active December was likely. My outlook also said this winter would see a fight between the MJO and other teleconnections. That too has been the case so far this winter.

Snowfall has hit parts of the region hard, while other areas haven’t seen any snow yet.  The reason for this has to do with that battle between the various teleconnections. The pattern hasn’t supported Major snowstorms coming up the Coast. Instead, we’ve seen a parade of Clipper systems, with the cold air in place these have brought snow to parts of Pennsylvania, New York State, and Northern into Central New England.  The Outlook said, the typical snowbelts should end up with overall above average to well above average snowfall for the season. So far, the snowbelts downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario have done very well, with snowfall running well above average for this point in the season. The Outlook said, how the Middle Atlantic and I-95 look to see a warmer winter and maybe little in the way of snow.

We’re only in December, so there is plenty of time for more areas to see snow, due to the active pattern looking to continue. Snowstorms of course will depend on available cold (we must have the cold in place before the snow) as well as the storm track.  I can tell you winter isn’t over.

So far, my winter outlook is going very well. The question is, will that be the case come Spring? I have a lot of confidence that the pattern I thought would occur, is indeed happening, so I guess we will see.

White Christmas?

The National Weather Service defines a white Christmas as having at least one inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning. It doesn’t have to snow on Christmas Day to have that distinction.

We’re going to be warm tomorrow. But then a system will come through, that will start to cool us off. But over the weekend, temperatures are going to be frigid. The system that comes through Wednesday night and Thursday will produce light snow for parts of Pennsylvania, New York State and Northern into central New England. As we get into Christmas week, temperatures are going to turn mild again. There is no widespread snowstorm, looking likely, as the storm track looks to push its way near the Canadian border. But a weak system could bring a bit of snow for some.

If there is enough cold air in place (which is a big if), those with the best chance of seeing snow on the ground are going to be across far northern New York State and Northern New England, especially in the higher elevations.   While those south of there will likely be only dreaming of a White Christmas.

 

December 17th, 2024

 

Daily forecast discussion…

The surface chart shows a weak cold front crawling across the region, with another cold front up over the Upper Great Lakes down through the Midwest.

Ahead of the 1^st cold front winds are a bit breezy with very mild temperatures for this time of year. This cold front will continue to move east today into tomorrow, providing isolated to scattered rain showers.

The 2^nd system associated with a northern disturbance, with low pressure developing along it in the Tennessee Valley. As this area of low pressure moves north and east It will bring rain for most of Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, into Southern New England. The cold air on the backside will cause rain to change over to a mix and snow in the higher elevations of Pennsylvania. This will also occur across New York State and Northern into Central New England. This will result in a general 2-4 inches of snow/mix across these areas, with the lower elevations and valleys seeing a T-1”. And the higher elevations of the Adirondacks, Greens, and whites seeing 3-6” or so.

The cold front will be pushing east on Thursday, behind the front winds will become gusty, and temperatures will become colder. With the colder air moving over the Great Lakes, lake effect snow will be falling on Thursday, but right now this looks to be limited.

Friday we will see low pressure develop off the coast, this looks to develop too far south and east to bring snow to the I-95 corridor and the Coastal Plain.  This Low will move toward Atlantic Canada Friday night into Saturday. Right now, this looks to stay far enough away, to prevent the Northeast from seeing a major snowstorm. But any westward shift in the track could bring impactful snow to parts of New England into parts of Interior New York State.

For Saturday through Monday, Arctic air is going to move into the region, this will be the coldest air of the season so far. This cold won’t stick around, as temperatures will turn mild next week. But as I’ve been saying cold air will be making a return for January. With the Northern Jet staying active, we can expect more snow chances for at least part of our region moving through next month.  

So far, the pattern I laid out in the Winter Outlook, looks to be playing out as expected.

Remember, winter on the Calendar officially starts at 4:21 a.m. Saturday, with the arrival of the winter solstice.

 

December 16th 2024.

 

Today’s Northeast weather discussion…

Our latest system that brought the rain and snow is exiting to the east, other than some lingering rain mix the region is going to be dry. But another system over the Ohio Valley is approaching. This will push north and east and head into Canada, this will allow for a warm front to bring in milder air for the next few days. The trailing cold won’t have much cold air behind it. So, tomorrow and Wednesday will be quite mild.

A disturbance in the northern stream will interact with a weak disturbance with moisture in the southern stream, the leading warm front will allow mostly rain to move across the region, but there could be some mixing in the highest elevations. The trailing cold front will move through later Wednesday into Thursday; this will bring mostly rain for most of Pennsylvania and the Middle Atlantic, with rain changing over to a snow/mix over the Appalachians, higher elevations of Pennsylvania, into New York State and Northern into Central New England.  Mostly rain is likely across southern New England.  Chiller air will start to move in behind this system, so there could be a few snowflakes in the I-95 and closer to the coast, but no accumulation is expected.

We have a system moving onto the Northwest Coast. This will head toward the Upper Midwest, from here it will move over the Great Lakes as it dives south and east. Behind this arctic air currently locked up over Northern Canada, will drop into the Eastern CONUS.  On Friday we look to see low pressure to our south that could develop off the Coast. How this interacts with the arctic front will depend on track and timing.  There is a chance for an impactful winter storm to bring accumulating snow to interior parts of the Northeast. But the timing of all this has to be worked out. One thing is certain much colder air will work into the region over the Weekend into Next week, this could be the coldest air so far this season. The lake effect will be falling behind the system, so those downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, will be adding more snow.  

The Winter Solstice, gets here this Saturday at 4:21 a.m.