December 30th, 2024

 

Daily forecast discussion…

The surface chart shows low pressure and the cold front pushing to the east. Today winds are still gusty, with temperatures slightly cooler behind the front, but the temperatures will stay above average for the next 36 to 48 hours.

A little shortwave near Lake Ontario will push north and east through tonight, bringing the chance for a few rain and snow showers for Northern New York State and Northern New England.

Another system will be approaching on Tuesday, with the mild temperatures, it will start as rain showers as it moves north and east. Rain will start across southwest Pennsylvania during Tuesday afternoon. These will work across the region during the rest of New Years Eve.

General timing

For the I-95 corridor rain will likely reach Washington DC after midafternoon into the evening, then maybe clearing out by midnight. Philadelphia will see rain moving during the evening, it could be moving out just before Midnight. The showers will move into New York City during the evening likely staying to around Midnight. For Boston rain will be moving in late evening and thru Midnight. For most interior areas it will be raining New Years eve, evening into the night. Northern New York State, northern New England look to see the rain arrive after midnight.   

Rain could be heavy at times. There will also be the chance for a few thunderstorms. So, dress for the weather and bring an umbrella.  

For many of us, rain will linger into New Years Day morning, then colder air will start to move into the region behind the cold front, where it is still raining, will see rain start to change over to wet snow. Wednesday will remain blustery.  For the Middle Atlantic, Pennsylvania, southern New York State and southern New England, there could be a few snowflakes, but little to no accumulation. Northern New York State and Northern New England could see a few inches, this will be especially true for the higher elevations.

Wednesday night, as the cold air moves over the Great Lakes; Lake Effect Snow will be starting to fall downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. At first winds look to be Southeast keeping snow on the southwest side of both Lakes, then for Thursday and into Friday the bands would shift north, before shifting back South Friday night into Saturday. Lake snows should be winding down on Sunday. Under the most persistent bands several inches of lake snow will be possible.  For the rest of the region for Thursday into the weekend, winds will be breezy and there will be a chance for snow showers and squalls, this will be especially true from northern Pennsylvania and points northward.  

Sunday should be generally dry away from the lakes, as high pressure starts to build in. The high pressure won’t hang around for long as low pressure will be approaching for Monday. We’re going to see the primary low move into the lower Great Lakes and Saint Lawrence Valley. Then a secondary low will develop off the Coast, as the primary transfers its energy. Too early to go into impacts, but the cold air will be in place, so this has a lot of potential at least for some areas. Could there be a mix/snow in the coastal plain? … Maybe!

The pattern for January has been well telegraphed, so the idea of prolonged cold and chances for snowstorms should come as no surprise.

This will be my last post until Thursday. So I want to wish all y'all a Happy New Year. The New Year is a blank page waiting to be written.  As we enter the New Year, lead with courage and your heart, to write your story and create your dreams!