Post
on what to expect this week.
The surface chart shows a low-pressure frontal system approaching. The radar shows an area of leading rain moving across northern New York State into New England. With the approaching warm front, a south wind will bring in much warmer than average air, temperatures are going to continue to warm today into tomorrow and winds will become windy, with winds of 10-25 mph and gust of 40 to 50 mph (especially in the higher elevations). We will also have a chance for isolated gusty thunderstorms. As this progresses, rain will become widespread heavy at times later today into tomorrow.
For the vast
majority of the region this will be a rain event. General rainfall totals look
to be 0.25 to 1.0 inches, with the melting snow, this could lead to some
flooding issues. Parts of far northern
New York State and across northern New England, there could be a mix of sleet/freezing
rain, this will be especially true for the Adirondacks, Greens and Whites, as
well as parts of central and northern Maine. Ice amounts of upwards of 0.2 of
an inch will be possible.
Tomorrow
will see these mild temperatures continue. As the system pulls away, rain will
taper off west to east. Temperatures could cool off just enough for a bit of
snow in some of the higher elevations later Monday into Monday night. But
accumulations will be light. Behind the system it’s looking to be dry for a
short time, then another system will be approaching out of the Ohio Valley on
Tuesday, Rain will move in for western Pennsylvania by the afternoon. This will
move north and east during the day. This is going to be another widespread rain
event. For many of us, New Years Eve evening will be very soggy, but rain could
hold off across eastern New England until the ball drop, (but no guarantee) . So,
dress for the weather.
Cold air is going to come in on the backside of this, changing rain over to wet snow, many of us could see some snowflakes, but those near the Great Lakes and across northern New York State and northern New England, could see some accumulations. How much will depend of the track the storm takes. Lake effect snow will also be an issue for those downwind of the Great Lakes into Friday, significant accumulation will be possible for those under the most proficient bands.
Looking at January, the temperature pattern change I’ve been talking about extensively will be starting the end of this week
We look to
see a storm move out of the Pacific Northwest during the first week of January.
Right now, this looks to move over the Great Lakes into the St Lawrence Valley,
bringing snow/mix. Then behind this system the northern gates open up and very
cold arctic air will move into the CONUS.
A little education.
The deep
trough over the eastern half of the CONUS, looks to dig down near the Gulf
Coast. That could make for a southern storm track, along the warm/moist and cold/dry
air boundary that sets up (baroclinic zone (BZ)). The temperature and moisture gradient
causes instability as the air rises. In the right setup, shortwaves that ride
that boundary, would have the potential to blow up, and then either go out to
sea, or ride up the eastern Seaboard. How these track, will depend on the trough
placement and axis (orientation).
The pattern
that is developing has great potential. And should end up being exciting. The active
patten would mean greater chances of snow storms. I can't talk about individual storms this far out. I can only talk about the overall pattern. But the way things are looking to trend, I expect to be tracking many systems,
how things work out will depend on track, timing and trough placement.
This time of year, the best weather excitement would be clear days, and cloudy nights.
ReplyDeleteI love the weather this time of the year.
DeleteIt’s weird I was watching some weather and while they agree that the pattern will change out in the North West, which eventually will have implications on our weather, they don’t seem to want to commit to extreme cold. They are predicting overnight lows in the around 15 give or take a few degrees and daytime highs around 30. If I’m not mistaken, you are predicting cold like we had just before Christmas when we had one night below zero and three nights in the single members and for more of an extended period of time. I certainly don’t wanna put words in your mouth. That’s just what I am taking from your words. While they agree with January being a snowy month, they can’t predict any snow storms and where they will go and when they will get here just that because of the cold, we will receive snow instead of rain they were going for the cold to last into the third week of January and February right now in their opinion is a tossup. It could be very, very cold or all the lakes could know we had a truck go through the lakes yesterday, but that was just stupidity. There was no way there was enough ice just because of a few days of cold.
ReplyDeleteOf course, I can't speak to the other outlets. But the various teleconnections are hinting at a very amplified with ridging in the west and deep troughing in the east. The overall setup looks to support a return from the Polar Vortex in January, along with a high likelihood for blocking near Greenland. So I believe we're going to end up with a lot of cold for at least the first half to three quarters of January. It's too early to now how the storms will track individually, that will depend on the overall trough placement and orientation (negative or positive tilt). Sometimes the east trough could slide west a bit, while other times it could slide east a bit. With the prospect of an overall deep trough, this would mean storms could track toward the Midwest and interior Northeast; while other storm would track south and east of our region, moving generally out to sea. When the timing works out, a few of these coastal storms could come up the coast heading toward New England, and become Nor'easters. We have to remember, we have to have the cold weather pattern in place before the storms. That does appear to be what is going to happen. So if we want snow storms the pattern will support the idea.
DeleteI don’t remember what your thoughts were on February but I remember you saying that March could be an early spring. Could you remind me what your thoughts are on February please and thank you
ReplyDeleteFor February I indicated that the first part of the month could see a continuation of the cold. But the up and down nature of the temperature setup, would make it so, that snow would be dependent on timing and overall track. Then based on the analogue package I chose at the end of February things could be winding down, with March seeing a good chance for winter to end during the first part of the month.
DeleteI hope Spring does not come early, the late Springs have been the only silver lining in the terrible Winters we've been having.
DeleteI don’t know why I keep getting cut off. I must be pressing the wrong button or something. I remember you saying that here in the northeast this pattern that was setting up for the winter did not indicate that we would see many Nor Easters, but you wouldn’t rule them out. And we could have a storm come up the coast if everything came together, which would fall in place with your winter outlook so the further we go into winter the better your outlook is looking
ReplyDeleteYes, the pattern, at least so far, has been following what the outlook laid out. So I picked the right analogues and other factors for the overall winter pattern.
DeleteThank you.
ReplyDeleteYou're welcome!
Delete