December 23rd, 2024

 

Daily forecast discussion…

I hope you were able to keep warm over the weekend. My overnight low was -20, what was yours?

Today is going to be very cold with well below average temperatures, as the high pressure starts to exit the region. temperatures will slowly warm today with tonight not as cold as last night. Then we will see moderating temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday. I will touch on this in a little bit; but first I want to cover the weather over the next couple of days.

Looking at the chart, we can see a weak clipper system is approaching, this will move over the Great Lakes then across the Northeast Monday night into Tuesday, dragging a frontal boundary with it. With the cold air in place, this will drop a snow/mix across the region, even the I-95 Corridor should see at least some snowflakes. The heaviest snow will be falling Monday night into Tuesday morning. Then the Clipper should be exiting, with lingering snow showers during the late morning and afternoon for parts of Pennsylvania, New York State and northern New England, these snow showers should be ending by the evening.

This won’t be a huge snowmaker, but it will bring northern Pennsylvania into southern New York State into western Massachusetts a general 1-3 inches of snow, across northern New York State, most of Vermont, New Hampshire and northern and down east Maine generally 3-6 inches is possible, this will be especially true for the Adirondacks, Greens and Whites, the mountains could see higher amounts in some spots.  For the rest of Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island, back into around Allentown and points north in western Pennsylvania a trace to an inch will be possible.  Philadelphia, New York City and Washington DC could see a few flakes.  Southern Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, across New York City and Long Island into far southern Connecticut, Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts will likely start as a bit of snow before changing over to a mix of snow/sleet/ice and then rain.

 

High pressure will build in for Christmas Day; this will stick around into the weekend. Keeping us mostly dry. An area of low pressure will be approaching Sunday night moving through on Monday, this will bring moderate to at times heavy rainfall to a large part of the region, but northern areas, especially in the high elevations will have to watch out for a mix. 

 

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are currently positive trending toward neutral. Then they will go negative. This will help setup for the January cold outbreak I’ve been posting on. With the NAO negative it will create blocking across Greenland. As I said the other day, the first half of January is looking quite cold. There is also an increasing data trend of snowstorms impacting the eastern CONUS. I think many of these will end up as Clippers; but depending in how trough axis set up, there will be the potential for bigger storms riding the boundary.

 

I won’t be posting anything for tomorrow and Wednesday. But I want to wish each of y’all a happy Christmas, Hanukkah and Kwanza. This is the season of gift giving, remember kindness is free. But it is also the most valuable gift you can give someone. You never know how your kindness will inspire others. I hope all y’all find joy and happiness, not only during the holiday season but beyond as well.