January 4th, 2025

 

A quick look at the weekend, and my latest thoughts on the next storm. 

Here’s a look at the current frontal chart, radar and satellite imagery

 

Today is cold and breezy, making for very cold windchills.

Lake Effect snow is continuing to fall South and east of Lake Ontario, as the winds shift to the west, the lake band will move north into the Mohawk Valley, then over areas east of the lake. By Tonight it will be up over the Southern Tug Hill where it will stay into Sunday morning, then the band will shift back south weakening and eventually dissipating Sunday night.  The areas under the most persistent bands will see another 1-2 feet, with localized areas higher than that.

Our Sunday night Monday storm is starting to develop, later today/night it will be over over the southern Plains, then this will deepen as it continues East. Right now, snow will be moving into the Middle Atlantic Sunday evening, say around 8 PM. This will push north and make it into Southern Pennsylvania 11 PM to 1 AM.

This could bring a stripe of heavy snow along the Mason–Dixon line. Far southern Pennsylvania Maryland, Delaware, and southern New Jersey could see 4-12 inches with higher amounts possible.  This will include Philadelphia, Baltimore, Washington DC. South of those areas 2-6 inches of snow will be possible, but snow amounts are less, because there is also going to be a mix of sleet and freezing rain.  Southern Maryland and Southern Delaware could see accumulating ice of 0.10 to 0.33 inches. There will be a sharp northern cutoff of the heavy snow, north of those closer to the Pennsylvania/Maryland border; say north of 1-70, 2-4 inches of snow is likely (This will include Pittsburgh) With 1-2 inches possible across the twin tiers of Pennsylvania and New York State.  As for New York City and Western and Southern Long Island you will be on the northern fringe, so right now y’all could see a trace to an inch. It is unclear if Southern Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts will see any snow out of this.

Behind the departing storm Arctic high pressure will drive in, very cold air will move into the Central and Eastern CONUS.