The cold and
breezy conditions continue. The Upper-Level Low over the Gulf of Saint Lawrence
has shortwave troughs rotating around it, each of these shortwaves bring reinforcing
shots of arctic air. As the cold air moves over the warmer Great Lakes, it is
causing lake effect snow showers and flurries for those downwind of the lakes. As
these little shortwaves move through that could kick off a few snow showers
here and there. The next couple of days will be a general rinse and repeat of
what we see now.
The winter
storm is developing in the Southwest. Then we will see low pressure develop
along the Gulf Coast. Yesterday I laid out the players on the board. And what they
must do to bring a winter storm to the Middle Atlantic into parts of New
England.
Right now,
there is a good chance for a band of heavy snow and ice stretching from Texas
into the Tennessee Valley. This will cause power outages and travel issues for
these areas.
The Euro ECMWF
has the 3rd part I’ve been talking about, from phasing with the
southern storm, keeping the trough on a positive tilt, as a result this stays
mostly south of our region and heads out to sea. The American GFS and to a lesser extent the
Canadian have that 3rd piece phase with the southern storm, but it
is a little farther east when it does so. This would mean the trough would
develop a negative tilt. But the delayed phase, would have an impact on an idea
storm track for the Northeast. As a result, the storm does come up the Coast
and develops off the Middle Atlantic Coast, but it looks to be too far south
and east to bring a large part of our region, a major snowstorm, instead parts
of the Middle Atlantic (I-95) and areas closer to the Jersey Coast would see a chance for some snow. Then to the
north and west of there a sharp cutoff would be likely.
Friday into Saturday will feature less wind and warming temperatures, but these warmer temperatures won’t hang around for long.
Here is a look at the setup map I posted yesterday.
How things look now
When we look at the upper-level pattern. The timing between the 1st disturbance in the southern stream and the 3rd area of energy seems to be off just enough to keep the developing storm suppressed south of most of our region. Those across Maryland and Delaware could see 2-4 inches of snow, while areas north and west of there end up with a general 1-2 inches. Those closer to Lakes Ontario and Erie and the higher elevations would likely see a bit more. Behind the departing system lake effect snow will once again fall downwind of both Great Lakes. So, the Euro wins the latest round of the model wars, for those who are keeping score.
The general timing looks to be Friday afternoon for western parts of the region through Saturday morning as the snow moves west to east, before clearing develops later in the day. Sunday will see breezy conditions return with sunshine; the cold will return for next week.
We will have to watch and see if there is a shift north with the track, but right now this is how it looks to go!
For those wondering we do look to see a clipper come through for next week. As for the rest of January, there are signals for more storms during the month
.
It always seems when it's cold we can't get precipitation here but when it's warm we'll get the rain. We hardly ever seem to have snow and cold. At least we seem to be having a cold winter for a change. Maybe the ticks won't be so bad thus year.
ReplyDeleteWork you're magic and whip us up a 40/70 bomb with 2-4 ft of snow for New England please !
ReplyDeleteSnow please! 🥹🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞
ReplyDelete