January 5th, 2025

 

Here’s a look at the current frontal chart and radar imagery

Lake effect continues to fall downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, during the course of today into tonight, the lake snows should dissipate. The areas hardest hit by this 4-day lake effect event have been across northern Onida and southern Lewis Counties where 60 to near 72 inches have fallen. The lake snowbelts have been getting hit hard this winter, just as the winter outlook said they would.

We have our storm approaching. The dry air over New York State and New England will cause a sharp cut off. There isn’t much change from what I said yesterday

The track and setup will keep the heaviest snows near the Mason Dixon line and points South. For southern New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware and Southern Pennsylvania, including Washington, D.C. and Baltimore 4-12 inches with southern part of Maryland and Delaware having the best chance of seeing spots of over a foot. North of there up across the middle of Pennsylvania, including Pittsburgh through central Pennsylvania into Central New Jersey a general 2-4 inches, for northern Pennsylvania a chance for 1-2 inches. With the into the New York State Southern Tier having a chance for a trace to around an inch. For far southern Connecticut, New York City and Long Island, you’re on the fringe, but you could see some snow showers/flurries with a chance for a trace to an inch possible. Each of these zones could have areas that see higher amounts. But generally, this is how it is looking. There is still a chance for accumulating ice across southern Maryland and Delaware with an accretion of 0.10 to 0.33 of an inch. How much Ice will be dependent on how much warm air pushes in from the south and how strong ocean flow is coming in from the east. North of these areas little to no snow is expected.

Timing looks to be generally the same as I laid out yesterday.

The storm will be exiting the region Monday night into Tuesday. Then Arctic High pressure will build in, bringing much colder temperatures as a piece of the polar vortex looks to drop south for much of the week. We will have a few shortwaves moving through that could kick off a few snow showers and flurries. But the most likely spots for any accumulations will be in the higher elevations of New York State and Northern into Central New England.

The Euro and GFS model images come from Tropical Tidbits.

Behind this storm on Tuesday, there is a chance for some energy to develop in the Rockies. From here it looks to track south and east and interact with a disturbance in the southern stream over the Southwest. The polar front will be down near the Gulf Coast, so this will likely track along that. From there it could track out to sea, or it could move off the Southeast Coast and track toward New England later Friday into Saturday. Right now, this is something to watch, with no guarantee that this will become a nor’easter. Who sees what will depend on the exact track and how strong the storm is, We have a week to see if it develops. 

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