January 7th, 2025

 

Looking at the surface chart we see a couple of shortwave troughs over the region along with an area of low pressure to our east. Today is going to be cold with northwest winds of 10-25 mph, with gust of 30 to near 50 mph, especially in the higher elevations. These winds are causing snow showers and flurries as they move over Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. There are also a few snow showers over northern New England along the northern trough boundary. Snow accumulations will be rather light with a trace to a couple inches or so. The rest of the week will generally be a copy of what we see today, keeping things a bit unsettled with it being generally dry, with snow showers for some of us.

The end of the week setup…. a bit of meteorological science.

We have strong low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska, which is pumping that western ridge. On the GFS 500mb height and vorticity chart we can see the three shortwaves I’ve been talking about.  I’ve circled the one in the Southwest U.S, the one in the Pacific Northwest and the one farther north in Canada. How and when these interact will determine how the storm in the southern stream develops and tracks. #2 looks to drop south and merge with #1; acting as a kicker that will have #1 move east along that polar front boundary in the southern CONUS. The flow along that western ridge, will have #3 move into the CONUS. The timing and track of this move will be the key on if #1 can really develop into a strong storm and how it will track.  If #3 drops into the Plains and phases with #1 all of this will blow up into a major storm, but if #3 heads toward the Great Lakes, it will get ahead of #1 and no phase will occur.

#4 is our current pattern over southeast Canada, and Northeast U.S. causing our wind flow as the air stream flow aloft converges which is resulting in all this confluence leading to how the air is rising and falling over the region. #4 and the Greenland Block will keep #1 from becoming an inland or lake cutter, giving us a shot at an East Coast Snow storm.  If the timing works out just right, the trough dropping in out of Canada will turn negative, this would have the storm move north and east up the Coast, turning it into a Nor’easter. If the timing is off just a little then the trough will stay in a positive axis, and eject the storm out to sea.

So yes we have a chance for a major Middle Atlantic Northeast Storm, but only if everything goes just right.