February 14th, 2025

Happy Valentine’s Day!

Today

Lake effect is still around, but the band will move north and weaken. Today is very gusty, but later today into Saturday morning, winds will be weakening, and should be much lower by Saturday morning.

Weekend Storm

The energy for this storm is developing over the Rockies, then move east as it picks up moisture from the Gulf of America (I’m calling it that, because the NWS is now doing the same, this used to be the Gulf of Mexico) From there it will head toward the Ohio Valley. From here will see it jump to the Coast, and redevelop in the Gulf of Maine on Sunday.

The data is looking like the storm is going to slow down a bit, but it will still be moving fairly quick. We’re going to have a decent amount of cold air as the storm approaches. This will be slow to get out of the way of the warm nose trying to come north and east. So, we will see some cold air damming, especially over central into northern New England. With the speed it going to have, generally, a 4–6-hour window for snow before a change over to sleet/freezing rain, then a transition to plain rain for many parts of the region.  

Northern New York State Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine will hold on to the cold the longest, so these areas will see higher amounts of snow

Northern New York State, Northern Vermont, and Northern New Hampshire, western and central Maine could see 6-12 inches. With parts of the Adirondacks, far northern Vermont and far northern New Hampshire along with Northern Maine could end up with 12-18 inches of snow.

Here is a quick map, showing my general thoughts on who sees what.

General timing.

For the Lower Hudson valley, long Island, Maryland Delaware and New Jersey, snow starts late Saturday morning, then there will be a quick change over the mix, change to rain midafternoon /into the evening, then a change to all rain.

Southern Pennsylvania will see a start of snow Saturday morning, but this will quickly transition to a mix, and then likely be all rain by early afternoon.

Northern Pennsylvania and most of New York State will see snow breaking out Saturday mid to late morning, Northern New York State will see snow moving in during the afternoon. Snow will become steady through the afternoon and evening. Snow will change over to sleet and freezing rain during the overnight into early Sunday morning.

For Vermont snow will start during the afternoon changing over to a mix later in the evening, especially for Southern Vermont.

Connecticut and Massachusetts will likely see snow move in late morning, then change over to a wintry mix Saturday evening through Sunday morning

New Hampshire and Maine will see snow start Saturday night, then Southern New Hampshire and southern Maine switch to a mix on Sunday morning.

Ice

For northern Connecticut and Central and Eastern Massachusetts Ice accretion looks to be moderate with significant icing possible in some areas. For central New England and New York State south of the Adirondacks, if enough ice builds up, isolated outages could become an issue. From Central New York State and across Mid-Hudson Valley down into the Catskills and Poconos as well as Western Massachusetts into Southern Vermont could see a hefty amount of Ice accretion which could lead to more in the way of widespread power outages.

Snow/ mix for northern areas, and rain for everyone else will continue for Sunday. Then Sunday night into Monday the arctic front will drive in, allowing temperatures to plunge into the basement.  As temperatures fall rain will make a quick transition back to snow. We will likely see another flash freeze. The northern Tier of Pennsylvania, Northern New Jersey, and areas north and west of New York City will likely see a change back to snow on the tail end of the storm.

Behind the arctic front, temperatures are going to crash, making for very cold conditions for Sunday night and Monday. Winds will also be very gusty. The strong winds will also lead to power issues. Monday and Tuesday will see lake effect falling downwind of Lake Ontario, with temperatures trying to warm a little on Tuesday.  Wednesday will see the lake effect continue. But away from the Big Lake, the rest of us, should see mainly dry conditions for both Tuesday and a large part of Wednesday.  

 

Storm for mid-week

The storm is going to move into the Plains, then ride east along that arctic boundary.  The trough is going to be negatively tilted; so, the orientation will allow the storm to move north and east. This could bring heavy snow to the I-95 Corridor into Southern New England. Based on the historical average, mid-February into early March is the best time for big snowstorms.

The Euro and GFS have a similar look, but they do have slight differences too.

Interior areas away from the Coastal Plain look to see much less snow, with snow amounts dropping off quickly Southeast to Northwest. We still have plenty of time for this to change. Any change in the track will have big implications on who sees what.