11/25/2025

 Rain  moving and a big pattern change on the way!

Surface chart shows high pressure giving way to approaching low pressure and cold front. Satellite and radar show the thickening clouds and rain moving across the region .

The rain is tracking generally southwest to northeast. The rain should reach eastern New York State and northern Middle Atlantic Late this afternoon into this evening, Then move into new England. 

The continental IR satellite image shows the strong shortwave in the southern stream over the Mississippi river valley. This is going to continue to push north and east. The scattered rain will be an issue today, With the rain showers lingering through tonight and the overnight. March of the region On Wednesday could see some dry time tomorrow morning. As very mild temperatures for this time of year surge in ahead of the approaching cold front. The cold front will be moving Later Wednesday morning A crossed western New York state and western Pennsylvania. This cold front will continue to advance during the afternoon and evening. Where is the cold front We will see strong winds move into the region generally winds of 10-30 miles an hour with gust of 40-50 plus miles an hour at times possible. With  the front we will likely see rain that could be moderate to heavy at times advance across the region, Embedded thunderstorms will also be possible. Behind the cold front Temperatures are going to be in free fall as that very cold air moves into the region.  Thanksgiving day should be mostly dry across the region But it will still be very windy Thanksgiving day parade floats may have some issues. Black Friday is looking to be similar with very chilly and windy conditions. 

I've been talking about this big pattern change for a few weeks now so anyone who follows my weather forecast shouldn't be surprised.

Lake Effect

The general forecast I posted yesterday hasn't changed. As the bands set up they will likely start out as rain or rain snow mix before changing over to all snow.

Lake effect snow warnings are starting to be issued.

Image credit Pivotal weather

Lake Erie

Wednesday evening Lake effect snow should be falling near and over Buffalo The band looks to basically stay here for much of the overnight. The band will start dropping southward on Thanksgiving Day, Making it into the southern tier of New York State And finger lakes by the afternoon. As the winds As the winds change orientation we're going to see a second band set up over the Niagara Frontier and south of Lake Ontario on Thanksgiving Day, Bringing accumulating lake snow to these areas. The southern band should be set up over northwest Pennsylvania Thursday night. Right now it looks like a general 6-12 " of snow with higher amounts possible over western New York State into northwest Pennsylvania. Again the winds will be strong enough that accumulating snow will push inland and could get close to or even into Syracuse. The areas most likely to see the heaviest accumulations will be Chautauqua, Cattaragus, Erie, and Wyoming Counties, Where 6-18 "of accumulation is likely with locally higher amounts very possible. Some of this lake effect could make it even into the Catskills and Poconos at times

Lake Ontario

Wednesday night lake effect should develop over Jefferson into Saint Lawrence counties. Then overnight and much of thanksgiving day This band is going to strengthen on those southwest winds with heavy lake effect snow falling across northern Oswego, northern into central lewis and southern Jefferson Counties.  During this time a general 12-18 " of snow with locally higher amounts is likely to fall, this will include the Tug Hill. Winds will be strong enough that this will extend away from the lake with 6- 12" possible across northern Herkimer county into the western Adirondacks. By 7 to 8 PM the band should start slowly shifting south, This will continue through the overnight with the lake band setting up near and over Syracuse and areas south and west of Utica on Black Friday. Lake snows will likely be falling over Rochester and areas south of Lake Ontario, Right now a general 6-12 " of accumulation is very is likely for these areas. With the higher hills South of Syracuse and south of the Mohawk Valley very likely seeing higher amounts.

All of this is preliminary, over the next couple of days the data gets better. That could change the timing and accumulation amounts. If these parameters  change dramatically I will post another update on the lake snows tomorrow. When dealing with lake effect conditions can go from clear to a white out in a matter of minutes, So those traveling in and around the Great Lakes want to keep this in mind. As travel at times under the heaviest bands could be near impossible and very treacherous.

High pressure will be settling in for Saturday. This should allow the lake snows to dissipate. Then on Sunday we will be watching an area of low pressure leaving the Great Lakes heading into Canada This will have a leading warm front and a trailing cold front move across the region. Scattered showers will move through. We will have to be on the lookout for a possibility of some icing as temperatures will be fairly cool and around that freezing mark. The temperatures will continue to climb and as the bulk of the rain moves in temperatures across much of the region should be warm enough that it will be all rain. As temperatures drop Higher elevation snow showers are likely to develop over New York State and New England. High pressure looks to build in for Monday Before another Cold snap drops in for Tuesday into Wednesday. Tuesday we will have to watch and see if low pressure develops to our south or near the Middle Atlantic coast, If this develops we could have more in the way of snow across at least parts of our region. If it doesn't form then we're more likely to see scattered snow showers.