Valentine's day weekend storm?

 Looking at the current surface chart radar in satellite

We have a series of troughs moving across the region Downwind of of the Great Lakes and a few scattered to isolate snow showers or flurries elsewhere. Under the band's 1-3 inches is possible.

Temperatures today will be another cooler than they were yesterday. With winds of 10-15 miles an hour with some gusts of 20-30 miles an hour possible.

For Friday we're going to have high pressure centered near the Ohio valley. This is gonna provide plenty of sunshine and temperatures will be similar to today but most likely slightly warmer. Later friday A clipper could bring a bit of snow across New York State Into new England. On Saturday this area of high pressure is going to drift overhead and end up off the southeast coast. The clockwise flow around the area high pressure will allow warmer air to work into the Middle Atlantic and Northeast.  For the first time in a while Temperatures are going to end up around seasonal to slightly above average for this time of year.

On Sunday we're going to see an area of low pressure over the southern US. As I've been saying The pattern is super progressive and we have a fast flow.  Because of this It still  looks like we're not going to see a phase between the northern energy and the southern energy in the subtropical jet. So this is going to most likely head out to sea. The Southern component could clip the northern Mid Atlantic region with a little rain I can't rule out A few snowflakes or even a bit of a mix over parts of southern Pennsylvania into New Jersey. But any accumulations would be around a dusting I'm not expecting much more than that.   The Northern component could bring a little bit of snow to the northern parts of the region. Any snow showers or flurries should be fairly light. I'm thinking accumulations would be a dusting to perhaps an inch. Northern Maine could pick up a bit more than that.

I'm using these model images to try to give you a visual of what I've been talking about for the last few days.

These 500MB images are courtesy of tropical tidbits.

The first image shows the trough dropping into the west coast

The next couple of images show the energy In the southern sub tropical jet moving across the CONUS. We could also see that energy in the northern jet Moving across Southern Canada and the northern US

The next image shows the southern system Approaching the southeast While the northern system is pushing through the Great Lakes heading towards the Northeast

This is a image shows both systems pushing east with a lot of space between them So there is no phase at least in time to bring the Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic a major storm.

The GFS and the EURO are now quite similar in appearance when looking at the impacts from both of these systems as they move through the region.

Courtesy of tropical tidbits

Behind this weekend storm we're going to enter a warming trend for next week.

This February thaw will allow some snow melt and could lead to some  Ice dam flooding. With the reintroduction of some rain back in the general forecast We will have to be mindful of storm drains and some flooding possibilities. As I've been saying for quite some time we are going to see a cool down again come back into the Northeast and northern Mid Atlantic as we get towards the end of February.

This it for today!

A progressive volatile pattern with wild swings!

 Surface chart, Northeast radar and satellite!

Looking at the surface chart We can see the cold front is starting to push away to the east And we have Snow up over New York State. Scattered showers over Vermont New Hampshire With steady snow up over Maine. isolated to scattered snow showers could work their way into Pennsylvania and northern Middle Atlantic, But they shouldn't amount too much maybe a dusting to an inch at most (but most will likely see nothing). The cold air coming over lake Ontario has started a bit of lake effect Most areas south and east of lake Ontario will pick up a general 1-3 inches of snow today with the areas east of lake Ontario on the Tug Hill picking up 3-6 + inches, Parts of the Adirondacks could pick up another 2-4  inches. There will likely be D-2 inches of snow across Vermont into New Hampshire as far. As far as the Greens and Whites y'all could possibly pick up 2-4 inches of additional snow. Much of Maine will likely pick up another 1-3 inches of snow today but areas around Downeast picking up 2 - 5 or 6 inches.

The low pressure will continue to push east snow ending west to east starting this evening into  the overnight. There could be some lingering snow over parts of New England tomorrow morning. But high pressure will be approaching providing a mix of sun and clouds. Temperatures look to be around seasonal. Friday we'll see high pressure in control with plenty of sun with temperatures continuing to trend upward.

Saturday we will see a weak system passing through, Over northern parts of the region this could cause a few Snow showers or flurries friday overnight and to Saturday. But I don't think they're going to mount too much and many of us should see a dry Saturday. The rest of the region will likely see nothing from this. As we had into Valentine's Day weekend we are going to experience a warming trend.

Then for Sunday and Monday we will be watching a storm. As I've been saying for a couple of days we're going to have an upper level low moving across the southern US.

NAM courtesy of tropical tidbits

GFS courtesy of tropical tidbits

EURO courtesy of tropical tidbits

Sunday We're gonna have high pressure up in Canada That is transferring and extending  off the New England Coast. This is going to allow South and south east flow allowing for warming temperatures in the morning. During the afternoon as this storm is approaching from the south It is moving into a warming environment. The disturbance to the north still to me doesn't look like it's going to have a lot of impact on the southern system . We're going to need a complete phase for the EURO solution to verify. The models are having a hard time with this pattern and the rest of the models are all over the place. But the EURO right now is the most aggressive with this storm. If the euro is correct and I'm not saying it's not ONLY that I highly doubt it. But everything is going to have to come into perfect alignment for it to happen. The pattern coming over the CONUS is very progressive. That fast flow is gonna make it very hard for this system in the southern stream to come north. So for now , I'm still calling for chance for some rain in the southern areas (But if the system stays far enough south Y 'all might not see anything at all). Over the northern areas it's going to be a bit of snow, mix and rain. The northern  lower elevations will be more likely to see rain, While the higher elevations across northern New York State Vermont New Hampshire into Maine will have a better chance of seeing a snow and or mix.

I know there is hype on some parts of social media on how this possibly being a major storm for our region. I'm just laying things out as I see them. So I guess we will see!

Going forward

We're going to see a deep trough drop into the western US. This is going to set up a pattern  that has a lot of volatility with swings going back and forth. This is the kind of pattern we typically experience as we move through March. So we're going to see warm spells move across the region along with cold shots coming in from the north This is going to set up a battleground for possible snowstorms across our region.

A lot of ice on the Great Lakes

The frigid arctic air we've been dealing with for large part of this winter and over this last weekend Has caused a lot of ice build up over all five Great Lakes. Outside of lake Erie The other Great Lakes  aren't completely ice covered and do have some open water. But the amount of ice is well above the historical average for this point in the season. The lakes can still produce some lake effect But it is a far cry from what it would have been when the lakes were completely clear.

Unlike recent past winners just about the entire Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic has snow cover. A large part Of New York State northern and Central new England has a very deep snow pack.

Yes we're going to see some milder temperatures move in. But all the snow and ice is going to help keep things for moderating too much and keep us on the cooler side of things for large part of the rest of February and March. For more details I wants in store for us and why I think we're gonna stay cool Please read my recent detailed post on the pattern.

The pattern is certainly staying active.

 Surface chart, radar and satellite

Yesterday warmed up and today the warming trend will continue. On the surface chart we can see high pressure is exiting to the east as a frontal system approaches from the west. The leading warm front will be pushing through the region today. This will allow temperatures to get even milder than they were yesterday.  Here's a look at the Penn State 24 hour temperature difference.

The temperatures are going to be the warmest we've seen in nearly 3 weeks. But  the milder temperatures will come  with a  price. The clipper over the lakes is going to race across northern New York State into northern New England. Then we will see an energy transfer to a low pressure area out in the Gulf of Maine. From there it's going to move into Nova Scotia. 

 A general 2-4 " of snow Will fall across northern New York and northern new England. With possibly 3-6 inches over parts of the Tug Hill, Adirondacks into the  Greens and Whites. Much of Maine could also see 3-6  inches. 1-3" will be possible across central parts Of New York state Out across the mohawk valley and through Massachusetts Down into the northern part of the Cape. A dusting to an  inch is likely across the New York State's Southern Tier (and up through the Central Hudson Valley), into southern new England and northern Pennsylvania, Add dusting to an  inch will also be likely across Connecticut Most of Rhode Island out onto the far southern Cape and off shore islands. Across Pennsylvania the northern middle Atlantic Into southern New York state and into Connecticut over into the Cape. As temperatures warm you'll likely see some mixing and rain develop. Some localized ice lake effect Is possible during the overnight. But all in all this won't be that big of a deal.

Tomorrow the cold front will come through. This will bring an end to the warming trend It will also bring the chance for snow showers and flurries. With the cold front we could see 1-3 inches generally across northern areas. But the higher elevations of the Adirondacks, Greens into the Whites could pick up a little bit more than that. Those cold winds Coming in over the great lakes is gonna kick off some lake effect snow. This especially to be true for y'all southeast of lake Ontario where 3 to 6 inches will be possible. 

Thursday high pressure will move in overhead along with northwest winds. Temperatures are going to cool to more what we would expect for this time of year. The high pressure will continue to be in control for Friday providing plenty of sunshine. It will remain cold, but nowhere near as cold as we have been. Saturday we will watch a system work its way across eastern Canada drag a trough into New York State and northern and central New England where they could see some scattered snow showers. Elsewhere there shouldn't be much of anything.

Sunday into Monday we're going to have a complex system approach. We will have energy in the northern jet stream. As well as some energy in the southern jet stream. When we look back up at the infrared satellite; we can see all that green coming into southern California. This is going to be our end of weekend system. This is going to work its way across the southern US over the next few days. The injection of of cold air that is coming as we approach the weekend is not gonna be an arctic air mass. Instead it will just be regular winter cold. We will have to watch the timing of these two pieces of energy. If the northern energy is quicker it will force this southern energy out to sea and away from the Middle Atlantic and Northeast. If it's a little slower; we could see that southern energy try to come north a little bit. Looking up at the GFS and EURO from tropical tidbits we can see this idea. But right now, It looks like the northern jet and the southern jet are gonna stay far enough apart that we will see no phasing develop between these two pieces of energy. So we could have scattered snow showers across northern parts of the region due to the northern system. With scattered rain and mix possible for the southern parts of the region. So for now at least I don't think this is going to be a big deal at all. All of this will be pulling away on Tuesday.

That's it for today!

Could we see a Valentine's Day snowstorm?

 

Just to reiterate What I talked about yesterday Here is a look at the temperature profiles For the last 30 days and the weekend  across Continental US.

As expected today started out very cold. But temperatures did becoming much milder than they have been. Although they are still well below average for this time of year. With the high pressure overhead the region did see a lot of sun.

This warming trend is going to continue tomorrow and we'll see temperatures Become much more seasonal.  This will be due to a system approaching the great lakes with a leading warm front moving across the region. Ahead of the front We could see a few snow showers or flurries. Northern parts of the region Have a chance at seeing 1-3 " of general snow out of this. The higher elevations across northern New York State and northern New England could pick up 3 to maybe 6". There is a chance that things across southern half Of New York state And southern half of new England could start off as a bit of snow Before changing over to a bit of a mix. With perhaps a dusting to an inch or two.. Across Pennsylvania into the northern middle Atlantic There could be a few rain showers. But none of this is going to amount to much.

The cold front will come through on Wednesday Bringing with it a chance for scattered snow showers and some flurries with limited  light accumulations are possible for most, This would be a general dusting to perhaps 3".  With the Adirondacks and parts of northern New York State into the greens and Whites could see 4 to possibly 6 inches. Down around down east main also could see 2-5 " of snow.  We will likely see a bit of lake effect snow start up downwind of lake Ontario It could bring some accumulating snow A general 1-3 " of lake snow will be possible But There could be some localized slightly higher amounts. 

Colder air is going to work in behind the cold front cooling us back to slightly below to below average levels Starting Thursday. From friday into Saturday We are going to see high pressure approach And move across our southern areas. With the high pressure generally to our south and east we will end up seeing a southern flow Come into the region. So So this won't be an article break it will be slightly colder than average But it's going to keep this from being a major widespread snowstorm for around Valentine's Day into Sunday. 

Saturday into Sunday we should see low pressure drop in out of the great lakes This low pressure will then move south and east and likely move off the middle Atlantic coast.

If the storm forms And yes there's a chance it doesn't but if it does It won't bring widespread snow like you might be hearing on social media But it will bring A little bit of snow and some mix and possibly southern parts of region seeing just rain. As the warm air Infiltrates further north, Areas that see snow and or mix could see some of this change over to rain. How far north that warm air can infiltrate is unclear at this time. The storm will be pulling away on Monday with some Precipitation continuing over parts of northeast New England. Northern parts of New York State and northern New England Will have the best chance of seeing mostly or all snow out of this. The exact track of this will determine who gets the snow, ice or the rain .

I encourage you to read Sunday's post as it goes into a lot of detail on what looks to occur over the next several months.

The Northeast is not done with cold and snow!

 

This is going to be a long post and how I think we're generally gonna stay cold right through march. I know many  of y'all are tired of all the cold and the snow we've seen so far. Like  what  Punxsutawney Phil said, we're not done with winter by a long shot!

Yesterday and today have been very cold. Between the air temperature and the wind chills this has been the coldest stretch we have seen during the winter. I doubt temperatures are going to get quite this cold during the rest of the winter. But I still think overall the rest of the winter will end up generally below average as far as temperatures go. Later in the post I will go into some reasons why I think this is the case. I've been saying this for a long time and regardless of those who disagree with me I haven't changed my mind.

A quick look at the rest of this week!

As I said this weekend has been extremely cold. Tomorrow we'll start out very cold and then temperatures are going to moderate slightly. We are going to see Milder temperatures during the coming week but they still will likely be slightly below average for  this time of year. But after these bone chilling cold days and nights It might feel quite balmy.

We are going to see a weak wave moves through around midweek. That could produce some light snow and wintery precipitation across parts of the region. And then Friday  into Valentine's weekend. We will have to be on the lookout for possibly a bigger event that could bring some snow and mixed precipitation to the region.

Here is a look at the persistent pattern we've experienced over the winter of 2025-2026.

Current 500MB pattern

The trough that's going to be digging into the West Coast Is going to change the pattern we've seen for big part of this winter. This winter has seen a lot of persistent troughing over the Eastern US. As the trough builds into the west, we are going to see the ridging work its way east and move over the East Coast around the 14th to the 18th or so. We could see fairly milder temperatures here in our region during that time. But I don't think it's going to last (I will touch more on this later in the post); I think the trough thats going to be out over the Atlantic is going to try to push back east into our region;  which will cool us back off As we move past the 20th.  After that brief warm up I do think that for the rest of February into at least mid March, we are  going to see overall temperatures that are slightly too moderately below average.

As that trough builds over the western US; It will likely force the storm tracks south, where we are  gonna see storms coming in off the Pacific, working there way over the Southwest US and then move east across the southern states. With this setup there is a much better chance than we see some of these storms  work the way back up north and east, tracking into the Great Lakes or along the Appalachians and moving over parts of the Northeast  or move up the Coast. The pattern could lead to some severe weather outbreaks in parts of the Plains and across the southern US. But it would also increase the odds of storms for the Middle Atlantic and Northeast. With the cold air still looking to persist at least in my opinion. We would have increased chances for more snowstorms as we move through the end of February and into March. We can still see a surprise major storm impacting our region moving forward.

Around the end of February there are some storm signals that show a possible storm impacting at least part of the region.

February and March 2014 analogues

Top three analogues going forward.

As I 've said, 2014 was the top performing analogue for this winter. When we look to the current teleconnections, the upper level pattern that looks to be developing and things like the polar vortex 2014 is still predominant. But two other analogues are also good matches. Those analogue years are 2009 and 2018.

The winter of 2008-2009 also saw a weak La Nina develop late in 2008. This La Nina went into the winter. Then dissipated and became neutral during the March to May time frame in 2009. The winter of 2017 and 2018 also saw a weak La Nina develop. This also formed towards the end of 2017 and became neutral during the first half of 2018. 2009 and 2018 also saw El Nino developed during the summer of those years. Both of these years saw significant snowstorms here in the Northeast.

When we make a composite for these analogue years we get the following

February through March analogues

Spring temperature correlation with the three top analogs

We still have plenty of cold in the pattern and I think we're still going to be able to tap into that over the next several weeks. The pattern does support the idea for more cold during the rest of this winter. That doesn't mean there won't be warm periods with milder temperatures. As I've been saying for quite some time We are going to see warmer temperatures move in for the February 15th to the 20th time frame. But also as I've been saying the deep snow pack and all the ice on the Great Lakes is going to keep us from getting super warm, so it will not be a torch. Instead we are going to see temperatures slightly above average during that time.  But we're going to see more cold outbreaks. I have no doubt about that.

So with the idea of us still having a chance for more cold weather and the storm track favoring phasing between the northern and southern jets and a favorite snow track possibly for our region. I'm still counting on some snowstorms.

La Nina

La Nina continues to rapidly weaken. In fact when we look at the data. We are already in neutral conditions. 

The trade winds have switched and they are driving warmer water eastward.  The waters east of the dateline are not only warming at the surface there's also a deep pool of warm water that is developing. There is no doubt that as we move into spring the la Nina is going to become neutral. When this happens it will continue to lose it's influence on the pattern. What were seeing is undoubtedly leading to the development of a El Nino. If El Nino forms it very well could occur during the summer into the fall of 2026. It's too early to talk about the strength of a possible El Nino. But we could start to feel its effects During the summer. If we do end up with an El Nino It very well could have a big impact on the 2026 hurricane season. El Nino typically increases wind shear over the Atlantic basin; which could help inhibit tropical cyclone development. This could reduce the overall number of hurricanes this coming season. With the possible development of El Nino It would likely last through winter 2026-2027. This would make for a very different pattern than we saw for this winter. El Nino's typically see low pressure in the eastern Pacific with the northern jet further to the north. This can make El Nino winter here in the Northeast milder and less snowy. But the northern Middle Atlantic can fair quite well as far as snow The storm pattern typically sets up so that from the central Appalachians down into the Delmarvia Peninsula can see quite a bit of snow.

Even though the Climate prediction center hasn't officially declared ENSO neutral yet. As I just stated above, we are no longer in a La Nina background state. As we get into the end of this month We will probably start to see more of that neutral influence in the patten, with the southern sub tropical jet becoming more active allowing more Gulf moisture into the pattern and with the Northeast remaining colder. Which is typical for neutral ENSO conditions. We will have more opportunities for snowstorms, possibly big storms, towards the end of February and through a large part of March.

The madden Julian oscillation

Looking at the diagram We can see currently the MJO is on the border phase 1 and the null phase (center circle) . Then it looks to move into phase 2 then phase 3

During the winter Phases 8, 1 and 2 are considered cold phases. Phase 3 typically sees warmth in the southern part of the United States But the Northeast and to some extent the Middle Atlantic Stay cold. Then phases 4, 5 and 6 are warmer phases at this point in the year. And then Phase 7 acts as a transition back to a colder phase.

The euro ensemble Looking out towards the end of February Is showing the same idea where warmth is in the south but over the Northeast into the Middle Atlantic it's staying cold.

NOAA is also supporting this idea. Showing increased moisture in the pattern as we move into the end of February and march

So to sum all this up So far this winter has been very cold here in the Northeast and Middle Atlantic. The region has been inundated with clippers but we've also seen a few Moderate and even big widespread snowstorms. Because of the cold the vast majority of us  have seen close to average and most of us seeing above average snowfall so far for the season; leaving a deep stone pack across a large part of the region The last part of February and most likely the entirety of march is going to be below average in temperatures. With an active subtropical jet increasing allowing and abundant moisture into the pattern. This is going to increase the odds for snowstorms moving forward through March. I can't guarantee every one of them will be snow storms But there will be a mixture of snowstorms, some mixed storms and maybe southern rainstorms at times. But I think the snow that will be coming is going to guarantee the entire region ends up with above average snowfall for the 2025-2026 winter season.

Well I hope you enjoyed looking through this and maybe learned a few things but I definitely hope you learned that what I've been talking about is very much within the realm of the science of meteorology and not wishcraft.