Another tornado watch!

 Tornado watch 75

Link to SPC

Much warmer and the severe risk is growing!

 Surface chart and radar

We have the warm front lifting into the region Allowing for very mild temperatures for this time of year To move into the region. This afternoon into tonight We are going to see ahead of a cold front Rain showers and thunderstorms move through the region. Winds will become gusty, with gust of 25-30 miles an hour possible. The rain and some storms look to move into northern and central New York State this afternoon. The rain looks to make it into western new England and Hudson valley late afternoon into the early evening.  Then late afternoon through the evening the rain and storms will be moving through the southern tier of New York State into Pennsylvania. The rain looks to make it Into eastern new England and Boston. Late evening and tonight.  It looks to make it into Philadelphia Late this evening into tonight as well.

That low pressure area is going to continue to strengthen Ahead of the cold front we're going to be in a mild and Moderately moist environment The cold front is going to quickly drop in to this. Setting off The possibility of severe thunderstorms. The storm prediction center Has a slight risk for severe thunderstorms Over western Pennsylvania With a moderate risk extending into central Pennsylvania and western New York state. The enhanced risk that's over the Ohio valley Is very close to the Ohio Pennsylvania border It is possible that SPC can extend this later today To include part of western Pennsylvania. Initially ahead of the cold front We will have to be on the lookout for discreet super cells. (Super cell thunderstorm that form independently ahead of the cold front). But the speed of the cold front Change to an environment that supports lines and clusters of thunderstorms Within these clusters there will be a possibility of some tornadoes developing. Even behind the cold front There is still going to be the rest for some severe thunderstorms developing.  More in the way  of general thunderstorms For eastern Pennsylvania into the northern middle Atlantic As well as most of New York state and new England

Here is a look at the SPC day 1 convective outlook.

The main risk will be strong damaging winds and hail, some of this hail could be large to very large (Baseball size). There was also the risk for a few tornadoes There is a chance that some of these tornadoes could be strong. 

As the front is moving through conditions will improve North to south during the overnight Into tomorrow afternoon. Behind the cold front Friday and over the weekend, High pressure is going to approach and move in overhead.  So we will be seasonally chilly to cold. On Sunday the high pressure will shift off the coast allowing for more in the way of a southwest flow and temperatures will start to warm up slightly. Turn on Monday another area of low pressure will approach with scattered Rain and snow showers. Tuesday We're going to have the system come through with the leading warm front and a trailing cold front. With this we will see temperatures warm ahead of the cold front before plunging back down and rain turning over to some snow especially in the northern areas in those higher elevations.

We're warming up!

 Surface chart and radar

We have that front boundary just to our north. With a small area of precipitation  over our southern areas. But most of this is not reaching the ground. Do you have a snow and rain showers up over the Great Lakes that are associated with a system that will come through on Thursday into Friday

The skies are a mix of sun and clouds for most of the region. But we do have sun over western into central New York. As a frontal system slowly approaches Clouds will be increasing as they drop south and east across the region. light rain and snow showers will be dropping south and east into New York State this evening, then moving into northern New England later tonight and during the overnight. Many will see mainly rain with some mix, but the higher elevations will likely see some snow, With light accumulations possible. 

Tomorrow a warm front will be lifting into the region allowing above average temperatures to work in. A few rain showers and higher elevation mix snow showers will be possible with the frontal passage. Any lingering storms mix showers should change over to all rain by Thursday morning. Then later in the afternoon into tomorrow night The trailing cold front will approach and start moving across the region. The front will be slowly dropping south and east. With the cold front We will see a line of Rain showers and thunderstorms. Some of these thunderstorms could be strong to severe This will be especially true over western New York State and western Pennsylvania. Currently the storm prediction center has a Marginal Risk for severe storms over this area. There will be an isolated risk for some damaging winds and hail, The tornado risk is very low But as always it's not zero. General rainfall amounts will likely be 1⁄4 inch to an inch. Expect moderate downpours at times. There will be some risk  for flooding over western parts of the region.  Rain will likely change over to a bit of snow over Northern New York State and northern New England. General accumulations look to be a dusting to an inch. But the higher elevations could see 2 to maybe 3 inches by Friday morning.

For Friday behind the cold front temperatures are once again going to become below average for this time of year. By Saturday morning The cold front will have pushed out of the region. A weak disturbance will be passing through on Saturday bringing the chance for some snow showers across northern parts of the region. But the southern half of the region likely see just sunshine. The unsettled conditions will continue over northern parts of the region on Sunday, With the southern parts of the region staying generally sunny. Sunday will still be seasonally chilly. But we'll see temperatures trying to modify a bit. But any warming in the temperatures will end on Monday as another cold front slides through the region bringing snow showers and rain showers back into the picture. On Tuesday the cold front will have slid out of the region as we see high pressure briefly build in. Then on Wednesday, another frontal system will approach pushing the high pressure away. It will have a leading warm front that will bring back the chance rain. That will be heavier at times, along with a chance for a mix and snow over New York State into northern and central New England. The frozen precipitation will be on the northern edge of the boundary. As temperatures warm any snow mix showers will change over to rain as that warmer air advances. Maine will hang on to the cold air the longest.  There could be some ice accretion in those higher elevations Especially in the northern Greens. with some accumulating snow across northern parts of the region is likely, especially in those higher elevations. The trailing cold front will slide through Wednesday night into Thursday once again bringing the below average temperatures, along rain and snow showers.

The sun is out. But not the heat!

 A look at the next few days.

The surface chart Shows high pressure over the region allowing for a northwest flow. The radar along with regional satellite Shows the region is dry. With most of us seeing a lot of sun. But we do have a few clouds over northern parts of the region.

The temperatures are cool. But north of the Mason Dixon line temperatures are slightly warmer than they were yesterday. However south of the line temperatures are cooler To downright cold.

The continental infrared satellite image shows not much going on overhead. but we do have a disturbance in the Great Lakes and the northern tier of the US is still active. As that disturbance in the Great Lakes continues to drift east It could clip parts of far northern New York State and northern New England with a bit of snow mix showers. Most of y'all will stay dry but cool.

Tomorrow and into Thursday the high pressure is going to slide to our east and move off shore. This is going to allow this northwest flow to change more southernly. Which will allow milder air to work into region. Wednesday's temperatures will be slightly warmer than they are today. But on Thursday a warm front will lift into the region with a stronger southwest flow will ensure they are much warmer. But we will have a disturbance passing to our north, The combination of that disturbance and the warm front lifting north Could set off a few rain showers. With northern areas Especially in the higher elevations seeing rain snow mix showers. Later and Wednesday winds will be picking up.

Later Thursday afternoon into Friday We're going to have a cold front dropping south and east out of Midwest and Canada. This is going to allow colder air to drop back down into the region. With the front we will see waves of rain showers. The steadier and heavier rain will be dropping south and east with the front starting with northern  into central New York State later in the afternoon into the evening. With the rain moving into northern New England Thursday night into the overnight. 

This cold front will continue dropping south and east during the overnight into Friday morning. The southern tier of New York State And southern New England into Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey. It will be primarily rain, But to the north it will continue to be a snow mix with some accumulations likely especially in those higher elevations. 

As the cold front pushes into the milder air, there will likely be a line of thunderstorms accompanying the frontal boundary. There is a chance that some of these thunderstorms could be strong too severe, especially across western New York State and western Pennsylvania Thursday evening into Thursday night.

Conditions will be improving north to south Friday morning into friday evening. With high pressure moving in and setting up overhead by Saturday. Behind the cold front seasonally chilly air is going to move back in for Friday. The high pressure sitting over the top of the region for Saturday and Sunday will ensure temperatures stay seasonally chilly. Over the weekend a couple of weak disturbances will be passing to our north. Bringing the chance that some of us could see some rain snow showers. But for the most part it shouldn't be too bad..

The area of high pressure will be pushing away on Monday ahead of a weak frontal System with a leading warm front and a trailing cold front. This cold front Won't have a lot of moisture to work with what it could kick off a few rain snow showers. Those northern areas,, especially in the higher elevations could pick up some limited snow accumulation. Tuesday high pressure will be building in overhead.

I posted the spring outlook yesterday. I encourage y'all to read it.

What about spring?

 Current surface chart and radar from Penn State E -wall

This week we are going to be on a temperature rollercoaster. While no big storms look likely for the near future. We are going to see several weaker systems move through the region rather unsettled.

Surface chart  shows the cold front slowly moving off-shore. On radar we can see there are a few Isolated rain and snow showers across the region. Most of the region is going to continue to dry out today As colder air works its way into the interior. New York State into Pennsylvania are going to see a few snow showers rotate in out of the northwest. While it is chilly temperatures are going to be warm enough that little to no accumulation  is likely this afternoon into this evening a general coating to perhaps an inch mainly on the grassy surfaces for some.

We will not see any major storms. But the pattern is going to be very progressive and we're going to see several of these weak cold fronts move through the region over the course of this week. Tomorrow is going to continue to be chilly. Then as we approach and move into Wednesday temps warm a little, then we will see a weak trough dropping in bringing a chance for a few isolated rain or snow showers. The trough will be hanging around For Thursday keeping things unsettled with isolated snow showers or rain showers possible. But many of you all should stay dry. Then on Thursday night into Friday we are going to see another culvert drop in from Canada dropping south and east across the region. This will bring a greater chance for Scattered rain showers and northern snow showers especially in the higher elevations. Temperatures turn chilly again for the weekend As we see high pressure building into the region for Saturday into Sunday. Sunday we'll see a weak system passing to our north That could kick off a few rain or snow showers. Then for next Wednesday Monday another week cold front will drop through bringing a chance for isolated rain and or snow showers.

Here is more in the way of a detailed outlook for what I'm expecting for the long range.

Overall spring thoughts

We're a little past halfway through the month of March. Which means we're already in meteorological spring. But with March acting more like a winter to spring transition; this  post is going to focus mostly on April and May and touch on June. I will cover what's left of the polar vortex, As well as how the El Nino looks to evolve. Both of these are going to be the main determining factors of the pattern as we head towards summer.

When we look at the ECMWF 500 mb pressure anomaly. We can see the polar vortex has a core that was left over from earlier and is sitting over eastern Canada. This is going to be the main driver of our pattern in the northern and eastern US for the rest of March.

This core is going to allow colder than average temperatures to drop out of Canada into The Northeast and eastern US. Below is the EURO 2 meter temperature forecast for the next 6-10 days There is also one  that extends out to the 10-14 day. The 6-10 day does show that cold air dropping out of Canada influencing our temperatures for the next week to week and a half. The 10-14 day does show warmer temperatures are trying to push north, as that PV core tries to pull to the north. But see how eastern Canada and much of the Northeast is still going to be under the influence of this overall colder pattern for the rest of March. Due to that persistent northwest flow. Making it hard to dislodge this cold air pattern.

The climate prediction centers (CPC) 6 to 10 day temperature outlook also shows that they agree with this likely outcome.

In several of my past post I have talked about how La Nina has faded and the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Is more or less in its neutral phase. I've also been posting on how to data shows that we're going to see El Nino quickly develop this spring into the early summer. 

This remaining Polar vortex core sitting over eastern Canada is the result of this rapid transition we're experiencing from La Nina to El Nino. The atmosphere is having a hard time adapting to the rapidly changing dynamic. 

The image below is showing a correlation between SST (sea surface temperature) during the 10 strongest El Ninos and the 10 strongest La Ninas. 

Each phase of the ENSO has a different impact on the the atmospheric pressure and rainfall patterns across the tropics. Overtime this  impact widens and effects the rest of the global weather pattern. Over the  winter of 2025-2026 the La Nina was weak. But it still had an impact on the global weather pattern. So there's no doubt that this developing El Nino is also going to have an impact. The stronger the El Nino the greater the impact.

As I said many times before the ENSO is comprised of three phases El Nino, La Nina and neutral. So El Nino is when the waters in equatorial Pacific are warmer than average. A La Nina is present when the water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are below average. When we're in ENSO neutral, the water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are considered average. Each one of these phases has a different impact on the global pattern. Each one of these ENSO phases can manifest with different strengths. A weak El Nino is when SSTS in region 3.4 are 0.5° C. to 1° C above average, A moderate El Nino is  when SSTS are 1° C to 1.5° C above average. The  El Nino is considered strong when the SSTs are  1.5° C to 1.9 °C above average. A super El Nino is in place w!l. hen sea surface temperatures are 2° C. above average or higher. The opposite is true when it's a La Nina with the temperatures running below average. ENSO neutral is when the SSTs in region 3.4 are running between -0.5° C. to +0.5 ° C.

The image below show now the equatorial Pacific is divided into four ENSO regions

Ocean analysis

Looking at the SST analysis across the equatorial Pacific , We can see there are still some cool pockets in the eastern into central equatorial Pacific But overall the waters in the  eastern Pacific are much warmer than they were over the winter, and are hanging around + 2° C. 

The sub surface temperature image above is showing how the La Nina below the surface has faded as the warmer waters have pushed into the eastern Pacific; due to those stronger westerly trade winds. 

While the actual strength of this developing El Nino  is still being determined. There is a growing  consensus in the data and on the models; that support the possibility of a super El Nino developing this year.

Below is a look at most of the major models El Nino forecast. The one on the left is region 3.4.  NOAA monitors this region  because it is strongly linked to tropical rainfall and the atmospheric circulation pattern. Making it  an important indicator of which phase of the ENSO we are in. The image on the right is showing region 3.0. All of these models are showing El Nino quickly developing. With many of them supporting the idea of a super El Nino.

When we look at the multi model forecast for the upcoming summer into the fall. We can clearly see that El Nino signature in the equatorial Pacific. According to the model output the overall SST profile is at or well above the temperature threshold of what is considered a super El Nino.

When we look back at past analogue seasons, that saw similar  rapid transitions from a weak La Nina to an El Nino, an interesting pattern emerged. Combining these seasons we ended up with a temperature pattern that favored overall cooler conditions in the Northeast, northern Middle Atlantic into the Great Lakes. The image shows the general temperature profile for April, May and June.

The other models are a bit different but support the same general thing of a persistent northwest flow dropping in out of Canada keeping the Great lakes, Northeast into Middle Atlantic genuinely cooler than areas to our west and south.

Precipitation patterns are more difficult to determine than overall temperature ideas

April

I do think this April overall is going to experience average to above average temperatures across a big chunk of the US. But for a large part of the Northeast into the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest, I think it's going to be an overly cool spring, with overall Temperatures ending up generally below average across most of Pennsylvania, New York State into southern and central New England As well as northern into central New Jersey. With far northern New York State and northern New England generally ending up with well below average overall temperatures. The areas south of the Mason Dixon line Maryland Delaware in southern New Jersey should be a little better with generally slightly below average to average temperatures for April. As for overhaul precipitation during the month of April, I think overall precipitation across  New England into New York State, most of Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey will be slightly below average to  average. But for parts of western Pennsylvania into western New York State y'all could end up slightly above average  when it comes to general precipitation.

With the likelihood of  troughing generally hanging around. Northern New York State and northern New England especially in those higher elevations will still be dealing with snow chances as we move through April.

May

During May I expect temperatures south of the Mason Dixon line to end up above average. But across Pennsylvania,  northern into central New Jersey and southern New England to become milder, With temperatures here ending up generally around average to slightly below average. However for much of New York State and northern into central New England I expect overall temperatures during the month of May will still end up overall below average to well below average. As far as precipitation I think most of the region will end up with slightly below average to average precipitation during the month of May. But far northern New York State into northern New England could end up with slightly above average precipitation. 

Towards the end of May, the idea of El Nino becoming more involved with the pattern Would increase the likelihood of precipitation amounts picking up a bit for the end of May and likely extended into the summer. I based this on the idea that on average El Nino summers end up being slightly wetter than La Nina summers. But that is highly contingent on how the tropics behave and if we can get some tropical moisture into our region during July, August into September.

June

I still favor the idea of June overall being a bit cooler compared to the average. But overall I expect  the region to see average to slightly below average temperatures for June. When it comes to precipitation I expect the region will generally see average to above average precipitation. With the overall cooler conditions and a greater chance for rainfall, hopefully it will help limit the drought concerns as we move forward.

Well that's it! I hope you found this an enjoyable and informative read.

The week ahead

I normally post a little overview of the weekly weather on Sundays. But tomorrow I'm going to be a bit busy with outdoor activities So I'm posting this now.

This week 

 

The weaker clipper with the rain and snow that came through yesterday into this morning is off the coast. In its wake it left cool temperatures.

We have a stronger clipper approaching the Great Lakes, Associated with that, there is a Leading warm front and a trailing cold front dropping south out of Canada. Where is the warm front We are going to see mild air stream into Pennsylvania and the northern Middle Atlantic. The cold front is going to drop south and east during the day, North of the front Most of New York state And northern into central New England Is conning to stay on the cool side of things. with temperatures becoming above average across Pennsylvania into the northern Middle Atlantic. This is going to set up a boundary over the region. There will also be quite a bit of atmospheric moisture over Pennsylvania into the northern Middle Atlantic as well .

Courtesy tropical tidbits.

With the front we will see some snow and a winterly mix on the northern side. For most of southern New England, Southern tier of New York State into the northern tier of Pennsylvania, northwest New Jersey and through Long Island a general slushy coating is possible on grassy surfaces. Across northern New York State and northern into central New England. Especially in the higher elevations. General snowfall amounts for northwest and northern Massachusetts into much of northern New England and across northern New York State looks to be a general coating to two or three inches. But snow could be rather heavy in the Adirondacks, Greens and Whites. Leading to higher accumulations, the Adirondacks could see 3-6+  inches. While parts of the Greens into the Whites possibly pick up 5 to as much as 12+ inches of snow. Generally most of Maine not in the mountains  we'll see 2-6 inches of snow. With far northern Maine seeing. 1-2 inches.

With widespread rain and some thunderstorms along and south of the front. some of these thunderstorms could be strong too severe. Those with the greatest chance of seeing severe thunderstorms will be across Pennsylvania into western Maryland. The storm prediction center (SPC) has a Slight Risk there. With a Marginal Risk for severe weather Into New Jersey, eastern Maryland and Delaware. Generally the best time for any severe weather will be 2:00 PM to 8:00 PM. After that the severe threat will lessen But we are still likely to see some non severe thunderstorms moving through the Middle Atlantic during the overnight Into Monday morning.

The risk will be damaging wind gust and a chance for large hail. During the afternoon we will have to be on the lookout for discrete  supercells that could develop ahead of the cold front. During the late afternoon into the evening the super cell threat will diminish And we will see an increased chance for a few clusters or lines of thunderstorms that could develop. Besides the risk of damaging winds and large hail; there will also be a chance for frequent lightning, torrential downpours and even a few tornadoes.

High pressure will be building into the region for Monday,as most of the region should be dry but there will be lingering snow out across Maine. Monday  into Wednesday is looking a bit cool with slightly below average temperatures likely. Then on Thursday temperatures moderate a bit and become more seasonal. The seasonal temperatures will extend into Friday But then another cold front will come through and drop our temperatures back down to slightly below average for the weekend. With the the front we will likely see some snow/mix showers over northern parts of the region Especially in the higher elevation, with  rain showers for the southern half of the region.

One thing I want to point out, I'm saying the low average quite a bit. But remember, what is considered average temperatures are higher than the day before. So below average doesn't mean bone chilling cold. At this point in March our general average temperatures are 50's into 60's °F. So our temperatures will be a little lower than that.

More on the long range

Courtesy of tropical tidbits

We still have that monster ridge over the western into central US, that continues to strengthen. This is going to allow that northwest flow to continue across our region. This is the predominant pattern that we've seen for most of this winter. As that continues it's going to continue to keep the Northeast cool. Here's a look at the climate prediction centers (CPC) 10-14 day temperature outlook.

The ridge is going to work its way east over the next several days. As that occurs We are going to see the ridge trough pattern across the US flatten out a bit. For the next several days Temperature should generally remain overall slightly below average. But as we get into the first part of April the overall general setup will make it feel more like spring.