The sun is out. But not the heat!

 A look at the next few days.

The surface chart Shows high pressure over the region allowing for a northwest flow. The radar along with regional satellite Shows the region is dry. With most of us seeing a lot of sun. But we do have a few clouds over northern parts of the region.

The temperatures are cool. But north of the Mason Dixon line temperatures are slightly warmer than they were yesterday. However south of the line temperatures are cooler To downright cold.

The continental infrared satellite image shows not much going on overhead. but we do have a disturbance in the Great Lakes and the northern tier of the US is still active. As that disturbance in the Great Lakes continues to drift east It could clip parts of far northern New York State and northern New England with a bit of snow mix showers. Most of y'all will stay dry but cool.

Tomorrow and into Thursday the high pressure is going to slide to our east and move off shore. This is going to allow this northwest flow to change more southernly. Which will allow milder air to work into region. Wednesday's temperatures will be slightly warmer than they are today. But on Thursday a warm front will lift into the region with a stronger southwest flow will ensure they are much warmer. But we will have a disturbance passing to our north, The combination of that disturbance and the warm front lifting north Could set off a few rain showers. With northern areas Especially in the higher elevations seeing rain snow mix showers. Later and Wednesday winds will be picking up.

Later Thursday afternoon into Friday We're going to have a cold front dropping south and east out of Midwest and Canada. This is going to allow colder air to drop back down into the region. With the front we will see waves of rain showers. The steadier and heavier rain will be dropping south and east with the front starting with northern  into central New York State later in the afternoon into the evening. With the rain moving into northern New England Thursday night into the overnight. 

This cold front will continue dropping south and east during the overnight into Friday morning. The southern tier of New York State And southern New England into Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey. It will be primarily rain, But to the north it will continue to be a snow mix with some accumulations likely especially in those higher elevations. 

As the cold front pushes into the milder air, there will likely be a line of thunderstorms accompanying the frontal boundary. There is a chance that some of these thunderstorms could be strong too severe, especially across western New York State and western Pennsylvania Thursday evening into Thursday night.

Conditions will be improving north to south Friday morning into friday evening. With high pressure moving in and setting up overhead by Saturday. Behind the cold front seasonally chilly air is going to move back in for Friday. The high pressure sitting over the top of the region for Saturday and Sunday will ensure temperatures stay seasonally chilly. Over the weekend a couple of weak disturbances will be passing to our north. Bringing the chance that some of us could see some rain snow showers. But for the most part it shouldn't be too bad..

The area of high pressure will be pushing away on Monday ahead of a weak frontal System with a leading warm front and a trailing cold front. This cold front Won't have a lot of moisture to work with what it could kick off a few rain snow showers. Those northern areas,, especially in the higher elevations could pick up some limited snow accumulation. Tuesday high pressure will be building in overhead.

I posted the spring outlook yesterday. I encourage y'all to read it.

What about spring?

 Current surface chart and radar from Penn State E -wall

This week we are going to be on a temperature rollercoaster. While no big storms look likely for the near future. We are going to see several weaker systems move through the region rather unsettled.

Surface chart  shows the cold front slowly moving off-shore. On radar we can see there are a few Isolated rain and snow showers across the region. Most of the region is going to continue to dry out today As colder air works its way into the interior. New York State into Pennsylvania are going to see a few snow showers rotate in out of the northwest. While it is chilly temperatures are going to be warm enough that little to no accumulation  is likely this afternoon into this evening a general coating to perhaps an inch mainly on the grassy surfaces for some.

We will not see any major storms. But the pattern is going to be very progressive and we're going to see several of these weak cold fronts move through the region over the course of this week. Tomorrow is going to continue to be chilly. Then as we approach and move into Wednesday temps warm a little, then we will see a weak trough dropping in bringing a chance for a few isolated rain or snow showers. The trough will be hanging around For Thursday keeping things unsettled with isolated snow showers or rain showers possible. But many of you all should stay dry. Then on Thursday night into Friday we are going to see another culvert drop in from Canada dropping south and east across the region. This will bring a greater chance for Scattered rain showers and northern snow showers especially in the higher elevations. Temperatures turn chilly again for the weekend As we see high pressure building into the region for Saturday into Sunday. Sunday we'll see a weak system passing to our north That could kick off a few rain or snow showers. Then for next Wednesday Monday another week cold front will drop through bringing a chance for isolated rain and or snow showers.

Here is more in the way of a detailed outlook for what I'm expecting for the long range.

Overall spring thoughts

We're a little past halfway through the month of March. Which means we're already in meteorological spring. But with March acting more like a winter to spring transition; this  post is going to focus mostly on April and May and touch on June. I will cover what's left of the polar vortex, As well as how the El Nino looks to evolve. Both of these are going to be the main determining factors of the pattern as we head towards summer.

When we look at the ECMWF 500 mb pressure anomaly. We can see the polar vortex has a core that was left over from earlier and is sitting over eastern Canada. This is going to be the main driver of our pattern in the northern and eastern US for the rest of March.

This core is going to allow colder than average temperatures to drop out of Canada into The Northeast and eastern US. Below is the EURO 2 meter temperature forecast for the next 6-10 days There is also one  that extends out to the 10-14 day. The 6-10 day does show that cold air dropping out of Canada influencing our temperatures for the next week to week and a half. The 10-14 day does show warmer temperatures are trying to push north, as that PV core tries to pull to the north. But see how eastern Canada and much of the Northeast is still going to be under the influence of this overall colder pattern for the rest of March. Due to that persistent northwest flow. Making it hard to dislodge this cold air pattern.

The climate prediction centers (CPC) 6 to 10 day temperature outlook also shows that they agree with this likely outcome.

In several of my past post I have talked about how La Nina has faded and the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Is more or less in its neutral phase. I've also been posting on how to data shows that we're going to see El Nino quickly develop this spring into the early summer. 

This remaining Polar vortex core sitting over eastern Canada is the result of this rapid transition we're experiencing from La Nina to El Nino. The atmosphere is having a hard time adapting to the rapidly changing dynamic. 

The image below is showing a correlation between SST (sea surface temperature) during the 10 strongest El Ninos and the 10 strongest La Ninas. 

Each phase of the ENSO has a different impact on the the atmospheric pressure and rainfall patterns across the tropics. Overtime this  impact widens and effects the rest of the global weather pattern. Over the  winter of 2025-2026 the La Nina was weak. But it still had an impact on the global weather pattern. So there's no doubt that this developing El Nino is also going to have an impact. The stronger the El Nino the greater the impact.

As I said many times before the ENSO is comprised of three phases El Nino, La Nina and neutral. So El Nino is when the waters in equatorial Pacific are warmer than average. A La Nina is present when the water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are below average. When we're in ENSO neutral, the water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are considered average. Each one of these phases has a different impact on the global pattern. Each one of these ENSO phases can manifest with different strengths. A weak El Nino is when SSTS in region 3.4 are 0.5° C. to 1° C above average, A moderate El Nino is  when SSTS are 1° C to 1.5° C above average. The  El Nino is considered strong when the SSTs are  1.5° C to 1.9 °C above average. A super El Nino is in place w!l. hen sea surface temperatures are 2° C. above average or higher. The opposite is true when it's a La Nina with the temperatures running below average. ENSO neutral is when the SSTs in region 3.4 are running between -0.5° C. to +0.5 ° C.

The image below show now the equatorial Pacific is divided into four ENSO regions

Ocean analysis

Looking at the SST analysis across the equatorial Pacific , We can see there are still some cool pockets in the eastern into central equatorial Pacific But overall the waters in the  eastern Pacific are much warmer than they were over the winter, and are hanging around + 2° C. 

The sub surface temperature image above is showing how the La Nina below the surface has faded as the warmer waters have pushed into the eastern Pacific; due to those stronger westerly trade winds. 

While the actual strength of this developing El Nino  is still being determined. There is a growing  consensus in the data and on the models; that support the possibility of a super El Nino developing this year.

Below is a look at most of the major models El Nino forecast. The one on the left is region 3.4.  NOAA monitors this region  because it is strongly linked to tropical rainfall and the atmospheric circulation pattern. Making it  an important indicator of which phase of the ENSO we are in. The image on the right is showing region 3.0. All of these models are showing El Nino quickly developing. With many of them supporting the idea of a super El Nino.

When we look at the multi model forecast for the upcoming summer into the fall. We can clearly see that El Nino signature in the equatorial Pacific. According to the model output the overall SST profile is at or well above the temperature threshold of what is considered a super El Nino.

When we look back at past analogue seasons, that saw similar  rapid transitions from a weak La Nina to an El Nino, an interesting pattern emerged. Combining these seasons we ended up with a temperature pattern that favored overall cooler conditions in the Northeast, northern Middle Atlantic into the Great Lakes. The image shows the general temperature profile for April, May and June.

The other models are a bit different but support the same general thing of a persistent northwest flow dropping in out of Canada keeping the Great lakes, Northeast into Middle Atlantic genuinely cooler than areas to our west and south.

Precipitation patterns are more difficult to determine than overall temperature ideas

April

I do think this April overall is going to experience average to above average temperatures across a big chunk of the US. But for a large part of the Northeast into the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest, I think it's going to be an overly cool spring, with overall Temperatures ending up generally below average across most of Pennsylvania, New York State into southern and central New England As well as northern into central New Jersey. With far northern New York State and northern New England generally ending up with well below average overall temperatures. The areas south of the Mason Dixon line Maryland Delaware in southern New Jersey should be a little better with generally slightly below average to average temperatures for April. As for overhaul precipitation during the month of April, I think overall precipitation across  New England into New York State, most of Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey will be slightly below average to  average. But for parts of western Pennsylvania into western New York State y'all could end up slightly above average  when it comes to general precipitation.

With the likelihood of  troughing generally hanging around. Northern New York State and northern New England especially in those higher elevations will still be dealing with snow chances as we move through April.

May

During May I expect temperatures south of the Mason Dixon line to end up above average. But across Pennsylvania,  northern into central New Jersey and southern New England to become milder, With temperatures here ending up generally around average to slightly below average. However for much of New York State and northern into central New England I expect overall temperatures during the month of May will still end up overall below average to well below average. As far as precipitation I think most of the region will end up with slightly below average to average precipitation during the month of May. But far northern New York State into northern New England could end up with slightly above average precipitation. 

Towards the end of May, the idea of El Nino becoming more involved with the pattern Would increase the likelihood of precipitation amounts picking up a bit for the end of May and likely extended into the summer. I based this on the idea that on average El Nino summers end up being slightly wetter than La Nina summers. But that is highly contingent on how the tropics behave and if we can get some tropical moisture into our region during July, August into September.

June

I still favor the idea of June overall being a bit cooler compared to the average. But overall I expect  the region to see average to slightly below average temperatures for June. When it comes to precipitation I expect the region will generally see average to above average precipitation. With the overall cooler conditions and a greater chance for rainfall, hopefully it will help limit the drought concerns as we move forward.

Well that's it! I hope you found this an enjoyable and informative read.

The week ahead

I normally post a little overview of the weekly weather on Sundays. But tomorrow I'm going to be a bit busy with outdoor activities So I'm posting this now.

This week 

 

The weaker clipper with the rain and snow that came through yesterday into this morning is off the coast. In its wake it left cool temperatures.

We have a stronger clipper approaching the Great Lakes, Associated with that, there is a Leading warm front and a trailing cold front dropping south out of Canada. Where is the warm front We are going to see mild air stream into Pennsylvania and the northern Middle Atlantic. The cold front is going to drop south and east during the day, North of the front Most of New York state And northern into central New England Is conning to stay on the cool side of things. with temperatures becoming above average across Pennsylvania into the northern Middle Atlantic. This is going to set up a boundary over the region. There will also be quite a bit of atmospheric moisture over Pennsylvania into the northern Middle Atlantic as well .

Courtesy tropical tidbits.

With the front we will see some snow and a winterly mix on the northern side. For most of southern New England, Southern tier of New York State into the northern tier of Pennsylvania, northwest New Jersey and through Long Island a general slushy coating is possible on grassy surfaces. Across northern New York State and northern into central New England. Especially in the higher elevations. General snowfall amounts for northwest and northern Massachusetts into much of northern New England and across northern New York State looks to be a general coating to two or three inches. But snow could be rather heavy in the Adirondacks, Greens and Whites. Leading to higher accumulations, the Adirondacks could see 3-6+  inches. While parts of the Greens into the Whites possibly pick up 5 to as much as 12+ inches of snow. Generally most of Maine not in the mountains  we'll see 2-6 inches of snow. With far northern Maine seeing. 1-2 inches.

With widespread rain and some thunderstorms along and south of the front. some of these thunderstorms could be strong too severe. Those with the greatest chance of seeing severe thunderstorms will be across Pennsylvania into western Maryland. The storm prediction center (SPC) has a Slight Risk there. With a Marginal Risk for severe weather Into New Jersey, eastern Maryland and Delaware. Generally the best time for any severe weather will be 2:00 PM to 8:00 PM. After that the severe threat will lessen But we are still likely to see some non severe thunderstorms moving through the Middle Atlantic during the overnight Into Monday morning.

The risk will be damaging wind gust and a chance for large hail. During the afternoon we will have to be on the lookout for discrete  supercells that could develop ahead of the cold front. During the late afternoon into the evening the super cell threat will diminish And we will see an increased chance for a few clusters or lines of thunderstorms that could develop. Besides the risk of damaging winds and large hail; there will also be a chance for frequent lightning, torrential downpours and even a few tornadoes.

High pressure will be building into the region for Monday,as most of the region should be dry but there will be lingering snow out across Maine. Monday  into Wednesday is looking a bit cool with slightly below average temperatures likely. Then on Thursday temperatures moderate a bit and become more seasonal. The seasonal temperatures will extend into Friday But then another cold front will come through and drop our temperatures back down to slightly below average for the weekend. With the the front we will likely see some snow/mix showers over northern parts of the region Especially in the higher elevation, with  rain showers for the southern half of the region.

One thing I want to point out, I'm saying the low average quite a bit. But remember, what is considered average temperatures are higher than the day before. So below average doesn't mean bone chilling cold. At this point in March our general average temperatures are 50's into 60's °F. So our temperatures will be a little lower than that.

More on the long range

Courtesy of tropical tidbits

We still have that monster ridge over the western into central US, that continues to strengthen. This is going to allow that northwest flow to continue across our region. This is the predominant pattern that we've seen for most of this winter. As that continues it's going to continue to keep the Northeast cool. Here's a look at the climate prediction centers (CPC) 10-14 day temperature outlook.

The ridge is going to work its way east over the next several days. As that occurs We are going to see the ridge trough pattern across the US flatten out a bit. For the next several days Temperature should generally remain overall slightly below average. But as we get into the first part of April the overall general setup will make it feel more like spring.

A bit warmer today

 Surface chart and radar

We have an area of low pressure to our north in Canada. This is associated with a couple of front as well as a trough. 

Winds are turning more to the south allowing temperatures to be slightly warmer today than they were yesterday. Skies are going to be a mix of sun and clouds.

Looking at the surface chart we can see there is a warm front approaching that is going to slowly advance across the region today into tomorrow. Even though today is warmer than yesterday temperatures are still slightly below average for this time of year. But tomorrow more milder air is going to be working in and our temperatures Should become average to slightly above average.

We have a few Rain showers and or snow showers associated with the warm front. But any accumulations will be extremely light. 

A cold front will be sliding through Friday into Saturday This will bring more in the way a widespread rain showers and high elevation snow showers. Rain could be steady at times. General rainfall accumulation looks to be half of an inch to an inch.

The warming trend with these above average temperatures will be with us through the weekend. Saturday will see lots of sun with temperatures that are above average and  only a slight chance for a few showers. But for the vast amount it looks like we'll be dry.  But on Sunday a cold front will be approaching and moving through the region. This could bring a bit of accumulating snow to northern parts of our region, especially in those highest elevations. With this we are going to have a trough move into the region that is going to cool our temperatures back down to below average for Monday into Wednesday. But the good news is the first half of next is looking mainly dry across the region.

I won't be posting tomorrow. So have a great weekend.

Was this winter's last hurrah?

 

A look at the surface chart, current radar and satellite

High pressure is overhead, but it's drifting east. This is providing chilly conditions with plenty of sunshine and some clouds mixed in.  The lake effect that set up yesterday and last night has fizzled out. But not before dropping several inches of snow underneath the most persistent bands. Other than a few widely isolated snow rain showers today is tranquil.

Compliments of tropical tidbits

Currently the East Coast is sitting under a polar trough, with a monster ridge out west.

These chilly conditions are gonna last for a couple of days. But the temperatures will be progressively warming as we  head towards the weekend. Thursday and into Friday we'll see a chance for rain /snow showers. Later Friday into Saturday morning an area of low pressure will be passing through.  we'll see a warm front lifting through the region allowing a stronger southern flow to direct milder temperatures into the region. With the front there will be a chance for scattered rain and snow showers. On Sunday A cold front will be approaching out of Canada. Ahead of that cold front We will see very mild air move in, as that southwest flow continues. But as the front drops north to south temperatures will drop during the day on Sunday The front will continue to be dropping south and east Sunday overnight into Monday morning. Behind this front we will go back to reality with much cooler temperatures. Along with the drop in temperatures will come the risk for snow and rain showers. High pressure is gonna set up For later Monday into Tuesday . But then But another area of low pressure Will move through on Wednesday bringing back the chance for rain and snow showers. This temperature rollercoaster is typical for this time of year and it is going to continue as we move forward. So when will real spring arrive? 

Yes the Spring Equinox arrives this Friday at 1046AM. But this tug of war between winter and spring is going to continue for a bit longer. 

In yesterday's post I touched on how we're currently in an El Nino Southern oscillation (ENSO) neutral setup. With El Nino looking to be quickly developing, as the pattern evolves I do expect us to be in an official El Nino by the time we reach early summer. But before that, we still have to stay on this rollercoaster, with frequent shifts in temperature.  

We had that sudden stratospheric warming event that occurred earlier this month. We had high pressure sitting over the pole. With the polar vortex split, half over North America and the other half over Asia. This has led to the current generally below average temperatures we are seeing now. There is still plenty of  cold air in the pattern. I expect we're still going to be seeing effects of that sudden stratospheric warming event as we head into at least mid-april. 

Courtesy of tropical tidbits

Over the next few days We're going to see that western ridge expand eastward. Looking at the 24 hour temperature change From Penn state's E. wall We can see temperatures are warming up nicely in the central US. The East Coast is going to be experiencing some of this warmth as we get into the weekend. 

 

The Madden Julian Oscillation  looks like it's going to move from phase 7 into phase 8. Then eventually into phases 1 and phase 2. Closer to the end of March into the 1st week or so of April. This is a sign that during the end of March into April the pattern could become quite active. With the idea that we're not completely done with cold air excursions coming out of Canada; that leads to the possibility of perhaps a few more snowstorms over the next few weeks. So I wouldn't be putting away those shovels and snow blowers for now.