El Nino is about ready to make its presence known!

Here is yet another on our developing El Nino. I know I made several of them But I think it's important to show how things are evolving with our weather pattern this summer and over the coming winter.

Current conditions

The Southern Oscillation Index is based on pressure changes, between Darwin Australia and Tahiti, When the index is positive we're typically experiencing la Nina conditions and when they're negative where typically experiencing El Nino conditions.

The Southern Oscillation Index daily contribution is becoming increasingly negative. The value for '13 April 2026 is -8.6. This is an indicator that shows El Nino is taking hold of the pattern.  

Over the last several post I've been talking about how we're currently in El Nino Southern  Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions In the equatorial Pacific and how we are rapidly transitioning towards an El Nino.

Here is a look at the global sea surface temperature anomalies for April 12, 2026. Image credit Coral Reef Watch.

Here is a look Of what SSTS in equatorial pacific look like during an El Nino

I've said many times The el nino Southern oscillation ENSO Is comprised of A warm phase a cool phase and a neutral phase.  The cool phase is La Nina and the warm phase is El Nino. El Nino is the periodic warming of the waters in the central and eastern equatorial pacific. La Nina is the exact opposite.The

El Nino's Forecasted strength

The strength of the summers El Nino is going to depend on those westerly trade winds and how long they last while driving that warmer water from the West Pacific into the equatorial Central and Eastern Pacific. The model data is showing how quickly this el nino is going to strengthen

Image courtesy of tropical tidbits Showing that Readings in Nino region 3.4 are finally in positive territory.

Here is a look at NOAA's Strength possibilities for this year's El Nino. The color shading within the bars Indicates the relative strength Of the El Nino. Looking at the table we can see the percent chances NOAA has assigned for each of these strengths occurring.

In the last post I did on El Nino I talked about temperature contrast involving SST temperatures across the equatorial globe. I also want to caution that were in what is called the Spring Predictability Barrier ( roughly march to may). During this time weather models can be notoriously unreliable when forecasting La Nina or El Nino events. So for that reason any forecast that relies solely on model input has to be taken with a grain of salt. In the last few El Nino post I've made I've been talking about the parameters and physical properties of what looks to be happening.  I've been showing several parameters How the El Nino looks to develop. I've indicated how this evolving El Nino is looking to be a moderate to very strong one.

Another of these factors I've been talking about Is the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO),

We just came out of the center circle on the MJO diagram. When were in that center circle (Circle a death) The MJO is extremely weak and isn't exerting influence on the pattern. The MJO is still relatively weak. But as we move forward It is going to become much stronger into phases 7 at 8. The ENSO and the MJO can have a love hate relationship. They can work together or they can fight each other. The ENSO and MJO are closely linked . Sometimes changes in the SOI index can be result of the MJO while other times it's a result of how the ENSO Is changing. Because the MJO just recently came out of the neutral center circle. We know the changes were seeing in the SOI index is result of the rapidly changing conditions associated with the ENSO in the equatorial pacific and not the other way around. But with the MJO moving into phases 7 and 8 with high latitude. It's going to really add to the El Nino influence that is developing.

When the SOI's daily contribution is negative the eastern CONUS tends to become much more active and unsettled. This does tie-in with the other contributions of El Nino developing and the MJO forecast and explains my current forecast of very unsettled conditions for the next 7-10 days. 

Looking at how the  equatorial Pacific SSTS are influencing the atmosphere.

We can see that in these satellite images. Showing robust convection starting to develop near the Hawaiian island chain. In the water vapor image we can see how the subtropical jet is Becoming active and ejecting moisture into the 500 millibar pattern over the United States. This is the start of the ENSO and atmosphere coupling together. The conditions will become more profound as we move forward. We're also going to likely see the northern jet become more variable and active. This will allow for some cold outbreaks to invade during the next few months

The subsurface temperature anomaly profile definitely supports the idea of a moderate to strong El Nino

Currently The models are also supporting a moderate to strong El Nino developing. With the Euro Showing the most support for a super El Nino

We're going to start to feel the impacts of this El Nino very soon!

This week we're going to have strong ridge over the eastern half of the CONUS with troughing out west. But  due to the combination of the developing El Nino And evolving MJO.  This warm stretch is not going to have lasting staying power. So in 7-10 days we're going to see the pattern reverse with troughing here in the east. These 500 mb Height images are courtesy of tropical tidbits.

Many weather outlets and sites are talking about 2026 being a super El Nino year. But as I explained in this post and in some of the past recent post I have done that is not a sure thing. Based on the data I've been going over for last 4-6 weeks I've explained how this is likely going to be a moderate to strong El Nino. I've also indicated that a super El Nino is quite possible. But in truth it is still a little too early To say for sure how strong this El Nino is going to be.  Over my last few post on the subject I have pointed out the parameters that could lead this El Nino to be atypical from Past El Nino's especially super El Nino's. You are a few links On some of my post I'm the EL Nino.

My 1st thoughts on the upcoming hurricane season

El Nino post I made on April 2nd 2

Spring thoughts and the ENSO 

I've made several other posts on this developing El Nino. You can go back and find them. For the most part My thoughts on this El Nino have not changed all that much. over the last several months.All of these post show that. I think there are many sites That are trying to scare people in order to get clicks and likes on their pages. Instead I've tried to show you the science and how it all operates in trying to determine what the ENSO is going to do. 

Some broad conclusions we can make from all the data. Is there it's almost a guaranteed certainty that we are going to experience El Nino this summer and through the coming winter. With that idea in mind We know we should see Conditions interfere with hurricane development in the Atlantic basin this year. You can also surmise that this coming winter will Will have a tendency to be warmer and wetter. 

The last El Nino began during the summer of 2023 and lasted into winter 2024.

We can see temperatures anomalies were much warmer than average

The image below shows the typical on average El Nino winter pattern.

Well that's about all I wanted to cover for this installment on this quickly developing El Nino. Please let me know what you think and provide some feedback. It would be greatly appreciated to know all y'all are reading this and getting some benefit from it. Lately these post have not been getting a lot of views .I hope this can change moving forward.