A few days of rain with possible flooding.

 Today’s temperatures are coolish. As I said a week ago, the region will finish July on a cooler note.

Next Few Days

Surface chart and radar.

 

 

The surface chart and radar show a warm front approaching with moderate to heavy rain ahead of it. We can also see the cold front dropping out of the Great Lakes and Eastern Canada.

We have a surface low over the Eastern Great Lakes with an Upper-Level Low just north of the border. This upper-level low will drop into New York State, while that area of low pressure over the Lower Great Lakes weakens, a secondary low will form off the Middle Atlantic Coast.  This Coastal Low will pull in a lot of Atlantic moisture.  

For late July this is a very strong storm. It’s going to setup shop over New York State, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms across the entire region.  Some of these thunderstorms will become strong to severe, with strong damaging winds and heavy rainfall being the primary concern. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for severe weather, over Southeast Pennsylvania, Central/Southern New Jersey, Delaware and Eastern Maryland. The Moderate Risk extends across Central/East Central Pennsylvania, Northern New Jersey, into the Southern Hudson Valley including New York City and Western Long Island. While the rest of the region is at a lower risk for strong storms, flooding rainfall will be a big concern. Even storms that don’t become severe will be capable of strong gusty winds.  

This widespread heavy rain will stick over the region through Wednesday into Thursday. Be prepared for winds up to around 30 mph along the coast.

As I said, rain will continue into Thursday, then it should begin to taper off Thursday night into Friday. Right now, general rainfall totals of 1-3 inches are very likely for everyone.  But rainfall of 3-6 inches is in the cards. Rainfall totals of 4-8 inches are very possible across Eastern into Central New York State, much of Western New England down into Eastern Pennsylvania into the Middle Atlantic. Higher amounts are possible we’re we see training (tracking over the same locations) thunderstorms.

Here’s a look at the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) day 1 and 2- and 1-3-day rainfall forecast.

The NWS has a Flood Watch up for western Connecticut, Massachusetts, Southeastern New York State (including New York City and western/central Long Island), eastern Pennsylvania, most of New Jersey into northern Delaware and northeast Maryland.  I do expect this flood watch to expand through a large part of the region.

Wednesday night and Thursday will see the coastal low start to weaken this will allow for lingering rain over the region; this will be especially true over Eastern New York State and New England.  Friday will see the low pressure will slowly move away. New England will see some morning rain, but skies will see clearing and rain tapering off.

Weekend

The weekend will feature average to slightly below average temperatures. Saturday and Sunday will feature a chance for scattered rain showers as a trough will be lingering over the region; but it won’t be a washout. Sunday night and Monday will see a cold front approach out of Canada and track south and east across the region. This will increase the risk for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms.  This cold front looks to stall over the region for Tuesday, allowing showers and thunderstorms to continue.