Another day of stormy weather.

 

Yesterday saw a lot of severe weather over Pennsylvania and the Middle Atlantic Region. 

Temperatures today are warm to very warm, with humidity getting higher the farther south you are. The muggy conditions over Pennsylvania and Mid Atlantic will be very supportive for thunderstorms. 

Images curtesy of Tropical Tidbits

Surface chart and radar.

That stalled frontal boundary just to our west stands out.  On radar we can see several thunderstorm complexes over the Upper Midwest and Midwest. These show up very well on I/R satellite. 

These are going to drop across Pennsylvania, Maryland and Delaware. Bringing the chance for severe weather this afternoon and evening.

These complexes will likely move through Pennsylvania, Maryland and Delaware. Bringing the chance for severe weather this afternoon into tonight. We have that strong high-pressure ridge building out of the Southwest. This is creating a very strong northwest Flow over the upper Plains and dropping through the Midwest. We look to see a Mesoscale Convective Complex (organized complex of thunderstorms) dive out of the Upper Midwest. This could bring damaging winds down through the Midwest and Ohio Valley.  

 This MCC could clip Southwest Pennsylvania. All of these complexes of storms will likely bring a repeat of yesterday's severe weather generally to the same areas. But it could end up slightly farther south.

The Thunderstorms that form this afternoon into tonight, will be capable of strong damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning. And very heavy downpours. The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk for severe storms over central and southern Pennsylvania into New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware, with the Slight Risk clipping southwest Pennsylvania. The Enhanced Risk in the Ohio Valley will have to be watched if the SPC expands this later today.

 

Image curtesy of Pivotal Weather

Tomorrow will see the same general pattern continue, but the severe threat will be dropping south and west. 

Today and tomorrow there will be a risk for isolated showers over New York State and New England, but many won’t see them.  We do have a touch of Canadian wildfire smoke creating a haze in the sky

Changes start to develop tomorrow night into Thursday.   That frontal boundary will move north allowing heat and humidity to surge northward.  This will increase the risk for scattered showers and thunderstorms over the southern tier of New York state, Pennsylvania and the Middle Atlantic. North of there the risk will be more isolated.

A cold front dropping south, will bring in much cooler and drier air for the entire region. This cooler drier weather will continue through the Weekend. The higher elevations across northern New York State and northern New England could become a bit chilly.  

Sunday will see the high pressure start o push east, as a warm front approaches from the Ohio Valley.  As these warm front lifts through we could see a few showers. Then Sunday night into Monday a cold front will drop through, bringing scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms. Depending on timing some of these storms could be on the strong side.  The front will be pushing east by Monday night. Tuesday will see conditions improving with lingering showers hanging around. 

Tropical Atlantic.

We have two areas being watched

The one in the northern Atlantic is unchanged with a 10% chance for development. But as this continues to move across the open Atlantic conditions will become even more hostile, so any development with this is highly unlikely.

The one south and west of the Cabo Verde Islands, is the one to watch. The National Hurricane Center has upped the odds on this tropical wave. They now have the odds of this developing at 30% over the next 2 days and a high 70% over the next 7 days, that it will develop into a tropical depression or named storm later this week.

If this stays on a southern track and heads toward and into the eastern Caribbean, that strong wind shear will rip this apart.  I still think this is going to Try to take more of a north and west track at some point. There is quite a bit of Saharan Dust to the north of the wave.

Saharan Air Layer (SAL) image shows this.  I have a white circle showing the location of the tropical wave.

The SAL is going to give this wave a lot of problems. If it can survive this and move into the warmer SST to the west it will have a chance. As I said yesterday, the ridge and trough interactions over the East Coast should keep this away from the Coast.