Tropical conditions outlook.

 

We have a developing area in the Atlantic Ocean east of Bermuda that has a chance for tropical development between over the next few days. The rest of the region is still very quiet. The official peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, September 10 is in the rearview mirror without any hurricane forming and well below average activity due to the hostile El Nino conditions.

The National Hurricane Center has a broad area of low pressure at a 40% chance of developing over the next 7 days.

On satellite we can see Convection (thunderstorm) activity already increasing around the broad low-pressure area. This along with Sea Surface Temperatures in that part of the Atlantic that are running 80°F -82°F and the general setup of light to moderate windshear and a fairly moist airmass ahead, I think this has a decent chance of development into a subtropical or tropical storm. Those with Interests in Bermuda will want to monitor the progress of this. But for now, it doesn’t look impact the mainland United States. But I would keep an eye on this.

We do have a couple of tropical waves out over the Atlantic, but the one coming off the West Coast of Africa is the one to watch.

As we go through the next couple of weeks, more moisture will work its way north into the Caribbean and points north. The extra moisture should but a dent into all the Saharan Dust, increasing the odds for something to develop.

Fay in the next name in line this season.