Calm before the storm!

 

Today is going to be very nice with fairly mild temperatures and no rain. But looking at satellite, we can see that shortwave disturbance over the northern Midwest in the northern jet and another disturbance in the southern jet near the Gulf.  That area of developing low pressure in the northern jet is going to interact with the southern disturbance and form into a storm over the Tennessee Valley, then move toward the Middle Atlantic Coast. From here it will move into the Atlantic. From here it looks to track south of the Gulf of Maine and stay south of the Canadian Maritimes, with the bulk of the storm offshore and heading out to sea.

Surface Chart, Radar and Satellite

 

This is not a major storm, and the best chance for accumulating snow will be in the mountains. Because of its track this won’t be a true nor’easter, but it will act like one in many ways as it begins to move away.

I have a better idea for where and how much accumulating snow areas will see. This is based on the lack of arctic air, with the storm generating its own cold air as well as the out to sea track. The GFS is moving toward the EURO idea of things.

  

Rain amounts for Maryland including Washington DC, Delaware and southern New Jersey you could see upwards of 0.5 inches of rain. The coastal areas of northern into central New Jersey, lower Hudson Valley (including New York City, Long Island, southern Connecticut, Rhode Island. And Southeast Massachusetts will see all rain, with rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches likely. As the nor’easter type storm develops near the coast Thursday night, temperatures cool, which means a good chance for a change over to some snow for interior area, especially for those over 1,000′ in elevation. Those a little further inland including Philadelphia and Boson along with northern Connecticut and much of Massachusetts, rain amounts of 0.75 to 1.50 inches are likely, no snow accumulation is likely, with a chance for snow mixing in on the back half of all this. The higher elevations in Western Pennsylvania including the Laurel Highlands could see a trace to 0.5 inches. Areas north and northeast of here including northwest Pennsylvania and southeast New York State will see rain on Thursday into the early evening 0.5 to around 1.0 inches with along with accumulating snow, 1 to 4 inches of snow is possible, this will especially be true for the Poconos and Catskills.   For Northwest Massachusetts including the Berkshires 2-4 inches of snow is looking likely at this time.  Outside of the Greens in Vermont across New Hampshire and southern Maine 2-4 inches with 1-2 inches along the coast. For the Greens 4-8 inches. The White mountains could see 3-6 inches of snow. The Adirondacks look to see 4-8 inches; in the mountains the highest amounts will be on the ridges.     The lower elevations of New York State including the Mohawk, Hudson Valleys as well as Albany, and Champlain Valley a trace to 2 inches, most areas north of the Mohawk Valley including the southern Tug Hill 2-4 inches but the highest elevations of the Tug Hill could see 3-6 inches.

This won’t be a big storm, but it will be the first widespread accumulating snow event of the season, so that makes it a bigger deal.

This will be a long duration event, lasting from later Thursday into Saturday. Temperatures will cool behind the cold front becoming below average for this time of year, but as cold as it will be, that cold will be marginal for a major snowstorm.