It’s cooler, but enjoy Halloween!

Surface Chart, Radar and Satellite

 

 

Today

We have a couple of weak cold fronts dropping through the region, with a few isolated showers over New York State and northern New England. But, high pressure is building back into the region

Satellite shows quite a bit of cloudiness over New York State and northern New England, with everyone else seeing a mix of sun and clouds, with skies becoming mostly sunny the farther south you are.  Winds are out of the west/northwest bringing in much cooler temperatures than we enjoyed yesterday, winds are breezy with gust of 15-30 mph.

For the rest of the week

 

That high pressure will be sticking with us over the Halloween weekend, allowing for cooler seasonal temperatures and dry conditions. Halloween Saturday will feature plenty of sunshine, with the cool temperatures those doing trick or treating might have to ware something warmer under their costume, but the lack of rain will make it nicer than many past Halloweens.  Temperatures are going to fall quickly on Saturday night with clear skies so if you’re doing any late parties make sure to have a jacket.  Don't forget to reset your clocks on Halloween night, as we fall back an hour, with the changeover to standard time. The change will mean sunset will be before 5 pm on Sunday.  

Sunday will still be seasonally chilly but it will end up slightly warmer than Saturday with clear skies.

Monday, Tuesday into Wednesday look to stay mostly dry, as high pressure will remain overhead. But a weak disturbance will be moving across Canada on Election Tuesday, so I can’t rule out a few rain showers, especially across New York State and northern into central New England. For the first half of next week temperatures will be recovering and turning milder.  Winds will be light and variable so all in all it won’t be bad at all. Wednesday will see that high pressure starts to push east as a low-pressure system and a trough approach. Thursday will be our next chance for rain showers as a warm front approaches and moves through.   As the area of low pressure moves out of the Great Lakes into Canada, a cold front will move through for Friday into Saturday, providing an even better chance for rain showers, we will cool down once again behind the front.

 

For the last week, I’ve been trying to show how the pattern is adjusting to the rapidly strengthening El Nino.

I’ve been talking about the current developing major stratospheric disruption for several weeks now. But because of that westerly QBO there isn’t a lot of cold air in Alaska and Northwest Canada. So, while this is an historically early Polar Vortex split, the QBO will help mute its impact.  There is a chance we could see another PV event later in December. The question is how much will the QBO effect that one.  I do expect the region to cool off somewhat for the end of November into December, how cold it will be is unclear, but I do expect to see some snow falling across the Northeast, especially in those higher elevations of New York State and northern New England. If this El Nino generally behaves like past strong El Nino’s the pattern will become colder and snowier for January and February. During this time nor’easters will become an issue.  We could end up seeing quite a few Miller A and Miller D type nor’easters with a decent chance for a few Miller B’s thrown in as well. We’re not going to get away from seeing some Alberta Clippers during the winter. While this Super El Nino will be a dominate feature, providing overall above average temperature profiles, there is going to be enough cold air episodes to ensure accumulating snow, as I said in the Outlook, the major cities in the I-95 will likely end up with above average snowfall for the season.  It’s going to be an interesting and memorable winter.  

Have a great and safe Halloween Weekend!

It's going to be a great Halloween!

 

Here’s a look at the current development of the Sudden Stratospheric Warming event. 

This is going to disrupt the PV. We have a lot of moisture that is going to be injected into the Southwest and Plains over the next few days, as a disturbance brings pacific moisture into the southwest at the same time a cutoff low will be working south from the Pacific Northwest down into California.  

 

 

Right now, most of the CONUS is very warm, the warm temperatures stretch from Texas right up through Maine. We will have a cold front that will drop through the region, but temperatures won’t crash behind it, and we’re going to stay fairly mild for late October standards right through the Halloween weekend. 

 Yesterday I talked about the PV bulging ahead of a likely split, with a piece of that split ending up over Southeast Canada. We can see all of that in these images.

 I’ve circled the two areas that will split in white.

 

When we get out to around Nov 5^th to 6^th, there is a very decent PV disruption. The problem is going to be in spite the historic nature of this SSW, there really isn’t a lot of cold air to be pulled down into the CONUS.

Here’s a look at the Euro thoughts on the temperature pattern over the CONUS from today into next Friday. 

So, in spite of the huge PV displacement, there really isn’t any arctic cold locked up in Northwest Canada and Alaska that can be pulled south. 

As far as rain, after whatever rain we see tonight into Friday morning, the weekend through Wednesday is looking to stay generally dry, then more clouds will build in with some rain showers returning for Thursday and Friday.

I still think the end of November into December is going to cold and stormy. 

When will these quiet conditions end?

 I’ve been talking a lot about the polar vortex, currently the PV is relatively strong. Keeping the cold air and conditions trapped near the North Pole. But as I’ve been saying there are signs that a early season sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event, will lead to a PV disruption; that would weaken the jet stream, sending Arctic air plunging into the lower latitudes, possibly into parts of North America. The stratospheric sudden warming can sometimes cause the jet stream to become kinked, and this tends to create a large area of blocking high pressure, which could lead to same very cold air for someone. The reasons for this are outlined in the winter outlook.

The northern Pacific jet has been very active, with a seemingly endless parade of storms slamming into Alaska. Currently temperatures in Alaska are fairly mild for this point in the season; running in the 20s and 30s. But temperatures over Siberia and Eurasia are running very cold With temperatures running 15-25 ° below 0. That cold pack in Eurasia is going to continue to build; and at some point it's going to spill over into Alaska and then down into Canada and the US.

Over the next few weeks, we’re going to see the storm track move south allowing these storms to start impacting the western CONUS. Part of the reason for the shift south is the seasonal switch to winter, but the El Nino is also playing a big part in what we’re seeing. As I’ve been saying for several weeks, the sub-tropical- jet is starting to ramp up, as the El Nino conditions and atmospheric interaction continue to become more and more coupled; there will be a lot of changes in tropical heating which can strengthen and then shift the Pacific jet stream. So, the sub-tropical jet is going to become increasingly active. The influence of El Nino and the QBO and PDO is going to adjust the jet stream which will determine temperature and precipitation patterns over the CONUS and alters the track of winter storms. Over the next several weeks, the northern Jet is going to send troughs into the Plains, leading to more storms tracking over California and the southern United States. This is the type of pattern that we expect to see during a strong El Nino.

El Nino is strengthening rapidly, the latest weekly SST departures in the equatorial Pacific are: Nino 4-0.0ºC, Nino 3.4-2.5ºC, Nino 3-3.6ºC and Nino 1+2-4.4ºC

All of this is connected.

A low-pressure system will move out of Mexico and will move northeast into the Plains tomorrow into Saturday. Then this will move into the Southeast on Sunday. This is the first low that is enhanced by El Nino, as the waters of the Pacific are warmer, which causes more evaporation over the ocean giving storms more moisture.  This first storm is the opening act. On Sunday while this storm impacts the Southeast a second much bigger storm is going to move out of the Southern Rockies this will move into the Plains on Monday and then will be approaching the Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday. The storm is going to be pulling tropical moisture and Gulf air northward.  Behind this bigger storm, colder air will be pulled southward into the Rockies and Plains.

The Northeast

For the last couple of weeks, the weather not only in the Northeast but the entire eastern seaboard has been incredibly tranquil. Those tranquil conditions are going to continue at least for the next few days, with high pressure in control, today is going to become milder but will stay generally dry. We will have that low pressure system I talked about above in the Upper Great Lakes as it pushes into Canada, the leading warm front will be moving through the region on Thursday, allowing tomorrow to become much warmer than today. Tomorrow during the day will stay dry. Then a trailing cold front will drop in and move through Thursday evening into Friday. 

Those of Y’all who what to see rain, don’t hold your breath. The rain that comes from this will be sporadic and very hit and miss. Rain amounts will end up barely measurable if that! And not all of us will see any rain at all.  Those with the best chance of seeing limited rain will be across the northern parts of the region, with things generally falling apart as it drops farther south and east. Generally, any rain should be over by late morning early afternoon on Friday. High pressure builds back in with sunshine and dry conditions.  We will cool off a little bit for the weekend, but it won’t be all that chilly.

For Halloween Saturday the little ghosts, witches, ghouls and whatever, should have very calm and dry conditions for trick-or-treating.  The slight cool down won’t last. Remember we return to Standard Time on Sunday, so set your clocks back one hour Saturday night. Sunday will be more of the same with dry conditions and seasonal temperatures.  Monday will see high pressure move off the Coast.  We will be watching a slow-moving cold front approaching from the west.  Ahead of this we will become very mild for Tuesday.  Tuesday night into Wednesday morning the cold front will start to move into the region but then stall over New York State and northern New England.  Those northern parts of the region could see some rain, but the farther south and east you are the greater your chance to stay dry.  Generally next week is looking to stay fairly mild for this time of year, with another possible cool down for next weekend!

Back to the polar vortex 

OK what about the polar vortex? I’ve been talking about the PV weakening for several days. There is a chance a sudden stratospheric warming     could even reverse the flow of the PV, which would be the earliest SSW on record going back to the 50’s, which would split the vortex and maybe send down some of that locked up cold into Southeast Canada. Typically, it takes 10 to 14 days or so for the cold air to start to work its way down into our region (the split could impact Europe or Asia) so for now it’s a wait and see.  But the PV is currently bulging with part of that bulge pointed at eastern North America, so the odds do favor we get a piece of it if it splits. My feel of the pattern is telling me, the last part of November into early December is going to get cold with a good chance for winter snow to be falling over parts of our region.   

With the subtropical jet becoming supercharged and becoming very active, the entire Atlantic seaboard will likely get heavier precipitation this winter.

 

It’s dry but we need rain.

 Yesterday I was talking about the developing displacement of the Polar Vortex, what’s going on with the PV is extremely earlier than what is considered average. It’s unusual but not unheard of.  The last time this happen was way back in November of 1968. The winter of 1968-69 was quite an interesting winter. It featured a mostly cold December a very mild January, back to a cold and stormy February, with winter hanging on into March.  1968-1969 was a moderate El Nino year with a peak ONI: +1.0°C.  So that El Nino was much weaker than the one we’re currently dealing with. Could what happened in 1968 be a hint of what could happen during winter 2026-2027? Maybe!  As I said in the Winter Outlook this winter will bring a lot of surprises.  The setup in the Pacific is the reason for the strong storms that have been pounding Alaska and Northwest Canada for the last few weeks. Currently we have a storm impacting Alaska with another just off the Washington State Coast. This is resulting in cold air being driven south bringing snow to the Cascades and Rockies where 6-12+ inches is likely at elevations above 3,000 feet This is also bringing the first snow of the season for parts of the northern Plains. While our region won’t see any snow, the time that we will is getting closer.

The Winter Outlook also talked about the El Nino’s impact on the Sub-Tropical Jet. Because of the interaction and enhancement of the Sub-tropical jet a moisture plume is going to direct rain into Southern California and the Southwest U.S. Moisture from Tropical Storm Vance will also move from Mexico into the Southwest, for the back half of the week.  All of this is likely to lead to a powerful storm that will move off the Pacific and impact the Desert Southwest as we get into the first couple of days of November. The sub-tropical jet is going to become and stay active moving forward.  This pattern will bring storms to the Southeast and move north up the Coast. Our November is going to look very different than we’ve seen the past 10-12 days. Just because the PV is going to weaken, is no guarantee that our region is going to experience an arctic airmass and snow. But that doesn’t mean we can’t see some cold and snowflakes.  

 

 Surface Chart, Radar and Satellite

 

 

Today

We have high pressure centered over the Virginias along with a cold front draped to our south.  We also have a low-pressure system approaching the Upper Great Lakes with a leading warm front and trailing weakening cold front. Our temperatures are coolish for this time of year. But all in all, it’s not too bad. The region is also dry. Which isn’t what some of y’all what to hear, as large parts of our region need the rain.

For the rest of the week

Tomorrow will see the high pressure start to push east; a southwest wind will allow temperatures to climb. Thursday the southwest flow will continue Making Thursday even warmer! as the high pressure continues to push east.  Later in the day on Thursday into Friday a cold front is going to pass through the region. This isn’t going to be a big rain producer. But isolated scattered showers could bring some of us a little rain. How measurable any of this rain will be, remains to be seen

High pressure builds back in for Friday into Sunday. Providing tranquil and dry conditions, making Halloween Saturday fairly mild, so trick or treating should be fairly pleasant. Don't forget after all the ghost, goblins, ghouls and witches are done we fall back at 2:00 am Sunday, so set your clocks back on Halloween night.

Our next chance for scattered rain showers will be Sunday night into Monday as a trough move in. Tuesday will see a warm front approaching.

 

It doesn’t get much better than this!

 A peek at the longer range

The northern Jet has been very active; we’ve had a lot of big storms slam into Alaska. There are signs that the polar vortex is going to become disrupted or even split. Currently we have a very rare November sudden stratospheric warming event occurring. Typically, 10-14 days after an SSW cold air drops out of the arctic into the lower latitudes like the eastern half of the CONUS.  In conjunction with this, we’re about to see the southern subtropical jet become much more active than it has been so far this season. This is due to the influence of the Super El Nino in the Pacific, along with the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).  All of which I talk about in the Winter Outlook. As these pieces of energy move across the southern U.S. They could become entangled with cold air dropping south.  The result of all of this likely will led to a powerful storm right after Halloween during the 1-4 November time frame.

The zonal-mean zonal wind (i.e., the west-to-east wind averaged across longitudes) at 10 hPa and 60°N is a common diagnostic of the strength of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex.

 

The EURO and GFS are in close agreement 

The charts show the zonal wind weakening a lot, as we get into November and becoming very weak by the 5^th of November.  This is a good sign that a PV disruption is about to occur.  The models are showing a piece of the vortex moving into Southeast Canada, this could mean the Northeast will get quite cold during the first week of November.

Surface Chart, Radar and Satellite

 

 

Today

Is quiet and tranquil with high pressure in complete control. Temperatures are quite mild for this time of year.  There is a weak cold front approaching from the north – but it is very moisture starved, other than some widely isolated rain showers over northern New York State and northern New England, the vast majority of the region won’t see any rain from it

We can see a couple of frontal systems over the Plains, but as these head our way, they will basically run out of moisture as they weaken.

For the rest of the week

Tomorrow will be cooler than today Wednesday will see temperatures start to warm with plenty of sunshine. 

On Thursday the high pressure will start to exit, leading to a southwest flow that will allow temperatures to climb quite a bit.  We will have another cold front approaching from the north. This cold front will be weakening as is drops south and east through the region on Thursday into Friday.  Those across the northern half of New York State and northern into central New England will have the best chance of seeing more in the way of widespread scattered showers, but many might not see much in the way of rain. As the front continues to drop across the region rain will become very isolated for southern New England, southern New York State, Pennsylvania and the Middle Atlantic. All in all, this won’t be a big deal.

The weather will become beautiful for Thursday, Friday, and Halloween Saturday with plenty of sunshine allowing temperatures to warm, considering the time of year, temperatures won’t be all that bad for trick-or-treating on Halloween!

Remember the clocks fall back this weekend, so remember to set your clocks before you go to bed on Saturday. For Sunday we will have a weak trough hanging around that could lead to a few isolated showers for some of us. Monday high pressure looks to keep conditions nice and mild.

As I talked about at the start of this post. We’re going to have to keep an eye on things during the first week of November into the mid part of the month, as there is a chance for a big pattern change with colder temperatures and the possibility of a storm for someone.

 

Sunny days and cool nights continue!

This will give a brief look at the upcoming week.

Surface Chart, Radar and Satellite

 

 

Something that is very rare this time of year, we’ve had seven to eight consecutive days of clear skies and dry weather. We’re going to see a few weak disturbances move along the northern jet stream. These will try to drop into the region during the first half of this week. These shortwaves will bring intermixing days of slightly warmer and slightly cooler weather, but it will remain mostly dry across the entire region as this pattern persist.  

We’re going to see a few weak disturbances move thorough the region during the first half of this week. These will bring intermixing days of slightly warmer and slightly cooler weather.

But it stays dry and overall, remarkably warm all week, with temperatures running generally 10 to 15 degrees above what's typical for late October. The overnights will run a bit chilly, but during the day’s temperatures will recover nicely, leading to wonderful afternoons.

Today

The high-pressure overhead is keeping our region dry and sunny; it’s keeping most of the East Coast for Maine to Georgia virtually cloud free.    

For next week

A weak cold moisture starved front will approach for Monday ahead of the front a southwest flow will allow temperatures to become fairly mild.  As the front moves in from the north and west it will be weakening even more and end up washing out. So, except for clouds with only a chance for a few stray showers over northern New York State and northern New England; the vast majority of us will stay dry.

The front will cool us off for Tuesday into Wednesday as high pressure moves back in overhead. Winds will become a bit breezy for Tuesday.  Of the two Tuesday will be the chilliest, so you might need a light jacket, Wednesday will see temperatures trying to recover. Both days will remain dry for the entire region.

Thursday another cold front will approach and move into the region bringing a better chance for some rain showers with it. This front is going to end up stalling so other than a chance for some rain showers over New York State into northern/central New England, most of us stay completely dry.

Temperatures are going to become milder ahead of the front with the warming trend continuing into Friday. Friday night and Halloween Saturday will be slightly chilly but once again the region looks to stay dry. So those trick-or-treating can dress warm and have a great evening.

I posted part 2 of the winter outlook yesterday. Make sure you take a look at it, and if you like what you read, pass it on to others.

 

The 2026-2027 Winter outlook part two

Winter is almost here, which officially starts on December 1st, and most of y’all are wondering what to expect and how wintery will it be? So, it’s time to get prepped for winter and what it might bring. which means knowing what the weather is expected to look like. here is part two of winter 2026-2027 outlook. Keep in mind, part one and two of the winter outlook are not a guarantee that will happen. It can only describe the probability that the overall three‑month period will be above‑, near‑, or below‑normal for temperature and precipitation deviations from historical averages. It can’t predict specific weather events like snowstorms or cold outbreaks. So, with that said, it’s time to get prepped for winter—which means knowing what the weather is expected to look like.

As in part one, we will look at factors behind the upcoming Winter 2026/2027, how they work, and how they can bring us colder weather and snow.  I will briefly rehash some of what was said in part one, as well as go into more detail on new factors and take a look at some analogue years with similar sea surface temperature and QBO and other patterns.

Link to part one

OK let’s start part two:

Winter 2025-2026 had a weak La Nina pattern in control, which became neural by the end of the winter. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) was negative and there was an easterly Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). The Arctic Oscillation (AO) during the core of the 2025–2026 winter, was in a negative phase, which favored cold Arctic air and storms moving south into mid‑latitudes, including North America. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) kept fluctuating between positive and negative phases, with periods of strong positive values bringing milder, stormier conditions to parts of the eastern U.S., and negative excursions producing colder, drier spells across the region. All of this allowed much of the U.S. to be colder than average for the months of December, January and February. Generally, in the Northeast, the winter was cold, snowy, and in some instances record‑setting, with above‑average snowfall for most areas, multiple major storms.

Bangor recorded 70.8 inches of snow (slightly below the 30-year average) Boston saw 60.9 inches of snow (9th on record) and Providence set a new record with 68.5 inches, NYC: 43.4 inches total (above average), Albany recorded 58.4 inches (matching the long-term average), Syracuse saw 143.1 inches (slightly above average), Buffalo 92.5 inches (slightly below average)

Snowbelts east of Lake Erie/Ontario: ended up slightly below 2024–25 totals but still above long‑term averages.

It was basically the same across much of the Mid‑Atlantic with notable impacts in Maryland, Virginia, Pennsylvania, much of the Middle Atlantic generally ended up with average to slightly above‑average snowfall. But places like Erie didn’t see as much. Erie saw 74.3 inches (below average), Washington DC 10.6 inches of snow (well below average), Baltimore recorded 17.6 inches of snow (slightly below average). But other spots saw more Pittsburgh received 51.6 inches of snow (well above average) Philadelphia recorded 30.1 inches of snow (above average), Atlantic City, NJ recorded 26.1 inches of snow (well above average)

 Overall, it was the coldest winter since 2014–15.

Winter 2026–2027

The Teleconnections that will govern winter 2026-2027 are almost exact opposites of what we saw last winter.

As I’ve said before, teleconnections are important and provide us with some clues as to the temperature and pressure patterns that can be expected during the upcoming winter. Season. The combination of all these factors and a look at analogue years with similar sea surface temperature and teleconnection patterns to what we’re seeing now, will hopefully gives us some idea what this upcoming winter has in store for the Northeast and Middle Atlantic Region.

Quick overview

 As I’ve discussed since I released part one of the winter outlook, the long wave pattern is becoming active and very amplified.  We have these strong storms crossing the Anadyr Gulf and Bering Sea and slamming into Alaska; so, the Pacific Jet is very active. Because of these strong Aleutian Lows The storm track will adjust southward and more of these storms will impact California; depending on the longwave pattern at the time, some of these storms will move into the Plains and hook back into Canada, but others will move along the Subtropical Jet across the Southern and Southeast, with some of these moving up the East Coast. During the upcoming winter a lot warmer than average air will be hanging around the northern tier of the U.S. But not all the time. As I was saying in the winter outlook, there could be quite a few nor’easters this winter.  This topsy Turvey pattern is going to be the predominate pattern for winter 2026-2027.  Warm and cold spells will impact the lower 48. This could lead to a winter pattern that will surprise many.

A look at the current global sea surface temperatures

Teleconnections

El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

The ENSO is a repeating climate pattern in the tropical Pacific that can warm or cool ocean waters, changing weather worldwide. It comes in three phases

El Nino – Warm phase: This is when Sea surface temperatures (SST) in the central/eastern tropical Pacific are above average. The 2^nd phase is La Nina – Cool phase: SST in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific are below average. The final phase is Neutral – Normal phase: Ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are near average; winds and circulation are typical.

But we have to remember El Nino is much more than just about some warm water thousands of miles away. It’s about the atmospheric response to all that warm water from the troposphere to the stratosphere.

As I’ve said in many posts, this year’s El Nino is already categorized as Very Strong (Super), and it very well could grow even stronger before likely peaking in November or December. This super El Nino is likely going to bring overall warmer-than-average temperatures, and higher-than-average precipitation across our entire region.

So far this Fall, the atmospheric "background state" is already mirroring strong El Nino conditions and will likely do so for the entire upcoming winter, so the pattern has been very El Nino like.

The latest weekly values as of October 15, 2026 of the Nino3.4, Nino3 and Nino1+2 SST indexes are +2.4, +3.4 and +4.4 degrees C respectively. That places them in near to record levels. But while El Nino is the main driver, it’s not the only one!

This super El Nino event is likely to peak during mid-November-to- mid-December period or there abouts. It should stay very strong through the upcoming winter season, then likely start to slowly weaken during the later Spring into Summer, before ending next Fall, where it could start to evolve toward another La Nina.

Super El Nino

Accelerated El Nino growth

The latest analysis from NOAA CRW Ocean data shows the ENSO area covered in very strong anomalies. You can see the peak warmth in the eastern parts reaching well over 12°F above normal over a large area. This is a substantial anomaly, with very rapid El Niño growth. And we haven’t even reached peak strength which could be 2 months away.

The unusually rapid growth shows up very well in graph analysis for the main ENSO region. It compares the evolution of the current versus past Super El Nino events. You can see right away that the 2026 Super El Nino temperature anomaly is much stronger and far above all the previous events.

 

Below is the subsurface temperature anomaly across the tropical Pacific. In the top 200m (650ft) of the ocean, you can see the engine of the 2026/2027 Super El Nino event: a powerful downwelling Kelvin Wave (I talked about Kelvin Waves in a previous post), with peak anomalies over 18°F above average. The warm subsurface water is still pushing eastward and continues to rise toward the surface.

 

 

 

A compilation of computer forecast models suggest this El Nino’s peak in region 3.4 (central Pacific) may not come until sometime during November/December. Plot courtesy NOAA, ECMWF, JAM, Canadian Met Centre, CCSR/IRI 

 

PDO

The PDO, is often described as a long-lived El Niño-like pattern. The extreme phases from the PDO are also classified by sea surface temperatures, either being warm or cool in the interior North Pacific and along the U.S. West Coast. The PDO often tracks along with ENSO, and the effects can be enhanced when both are in the same phase. As I covered in part one, the PDO is currently strongly negative and will likely stay that way through the entire winter.

With a typical negative PDO pattern, ridges of high pressure set up over both coasts, while an upper-level trough of low pressure sits over the nation’s midsection. This usually results in the northern Plains being colder than normal, and the Southwest and Southeast averaging warmer.

Last winter saw the PDO and La Nina work hand in hand. This year the PDO will be at odds with the El Nino.

 

QBO

 

The QBO and its connection to the polar vortex is strong. It has a lot of influence on the circulation pattern in the Stratosphere. In this way, it can lead to episodes of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events, which could cause a disruption of the polar vortex. As I’ve said many times sudden stratospheric warming is a rapid temperature spike above the Arctic that can weaken or split the polar vortex (polar vortex is a large, persistent area of low pressure and extremely cold, rotating air surrounding Earth’s poles, which is strongest in winter) often leading to colder, stormier weather in parts of eastern North America in the weeks that follow.

Winter 2025-2026 saw an easterly QBO. During the easterly phase the polar vortex tends to be weaker, which increases the risk for SSW events. When the PV weakens or splits into multiple pieces (like we saw last winter and during the 2022-2023 winter season) This winter is going to be the exact opposite. Winter 2026-2027 will have a western QBO. So, we’re going to likely be dealing with a stronger polar vortex which will reduce the chances for sudden warmings. Helping the cold air to generally remain bottled up in the Arctic.

All of these factors Super El Nino, strong negative PDO and a westerly QBO are very rare. So, this winter is going to be very unique.  

 

Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcanic eruption

I’ve mentioned this in the last few winter outlooks. This winter won’t be an exception 

Is still having an impact on the Stratosphere and is making long-term forecasting much more complex, due to all the extra water vapor in the atmosphere.  Since January 2022, all that water vapor has had an influence on the polar vortex. It has caused the polar vortex to be much more volatile than it was previously. Over the last few winters there has been a lot more stretching of the vortex.  

With this in mind. We’re already seeing the development of a sudden stratospheric warming; this is an unusually early disruption of the polar vortex. 

 

 

This is a Powerful east based El Nino. So, we will be dominated by a southward and eastward shift of the U.S. jet stream. A Super El Nino pattern also strongly impacts the snowfall potential. When an active southern jet stream overlaps periodic cold air drops from Canada, it can shift the primary winter storm corridor farther south than usual. This will make it even more likely that the Jet stream shifts south/east, will send storms along the subtropical jet, steering storms away from the central U.S. and toward the East Coast. With the El Nino so strongly east based, there is a very great chance for an increased frequency of storms coming up and impacting the east coast.

Warm Atlantic

I’ve talked several times about the very warm Atlantic. Those warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic can significantly alter winter weather patterns by modifying atmospheric circulation, ocean–atmosphere interactions, and large-scale climate modes.

All that heat enhances the latent heat, which can help strengthen low level jet as well as modify the position and intensity of the northern and southern Jets. Because of this it can affect storm tracks and influence temperature patterns over North America. All of that heat can aid the El Nino effect, by modulate the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), it could also alter the polar vortex and influencing winter storm tracks and temperature extremes. While also influencing the broader temperature and precipitation patterns across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

Analogues

If you’re familiar with my long-range outlooks, you know I place a lot of emphasis on past patterns that were to the current one and try to use those outcomes as a pattern‑matching guide to the upcoming season might look like.

Analog years featuring a similar setup this this winter.

These years had a similar SST pattern to what is going on now in the global oceans. So, I had to look at years that featured strong to very strong El Nino’s. during the winter seasons.  

 I believe the winter seasons of 1957-1958, 1965-1966, 1972-1973, 1982-1983, 1991-1992, 1997-1998, 2015-2016, 2023-2024 featured somewhat analogous sea surface temperature patterns compared to today’s environment and their average temperature and precipitation patterns during the winter seasons can provide us with a clue as to what we can expect.

Average breakdown of temperature anomalies during the analog years; courtesy NOAA

Average December to March precipitation anomaly pattern for the analog years; courtesy NOAA

These analog years featured winter seasons in which overall average temperatures were above-normal across the northern US and below-normal in southern areas of the US.  The Mid-Atlantic region was sandwiched between these two zones with near normal to slightly above normal conditions on average during these strong El Nino analog years. 

 An interesting finding with respect to temperatures in these selected analog years is revealed when looking at the breakdown of anomalies on a month-to-month basis. There was a clear tendency for the eastern two/thirds of the nation to experience a much warmer-than-normal start to the winter during the month of December, and then colder-than-normal conditions dominated the southern states and parts of the Mid-Atlantic region during January and February.

 Northern Hemisphere snowpack

A review of the northern hemisphere snow cover extent shows a highly variable pattern.

 Northern Hemisphere

Current Snowfall Extent in Alaska and Canada

Alaska

Both Alaska and parts of Canada are currently showing snow cover well below the 1998–2011 historical average, according to the latest satellite and operational data.

The National Snow and Ice Data Center’s “Snow Today” platform shows the western U.S. and Alaska combined far below the 26‑year average. But snow cover across northern Alaska is higher than it was at this time last year.

 Canada:

 The Canadian Cryospheric Information Network shows snow cover extent is below average in many provinces and territories, with some regions showing strong negative anomalies

  

Siberian Snow Cover

While the Siberian snowpack alone does not ensure a warm or cold winter, it is one of the key players behind my winter forecast.

With the exception along Russia’s Arctic Coastline in the north. Snow cover across Siberia has been quickly increasing after September, according to Rutgers University, much of the Russian interior between the Ural Mountains in the west and Pacific Coast in the east has an above-average snowpack. This early-season expansion documented across Northern and Northeastern Russia. is a reversal from what we’ve seen in recent years, where snowpack was generally below average. Russia will likely see a continued increase in snowpack along its southern borders with Mongolia and China with an active storm track. This will further serve to grow the extent of Siberian snow cover as we move through the rest October.

Extra snow and ice cover can allow pools of colder air to be more prevalent. This increased snow cover could help define the pattern I’ve been talking about across North America.  

 What goes on in Baffin Bay, located to the west of Greenland. Will also have a part to play in the upcoming winter; how much ice forms will be another key in how storms along the East Coast.

 

 NOAA’s Winter Outlook

 NOAA’s Updated Winter Temperature Outlook

NOAA’s temperature outlook favors warmer-than-average conditions across much of the northern United States, including the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast.

 

 NOAA’s Winter Precipitation Forecast

NOAA favors above-normal precipitation across much of the southern United States, including California, the Southwest and portions of the southern Rockies. The wetter signal also extends across much of the Southeast and along the East Coast.

 

 A look at temperature and precipitation anomalies

Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic temperature anomalies

A breakdown of temperature and precipitation anomalies

In the top panel, you can see snowfall accumulation for a specific region. The red line shows the snowfall forecast trend. While the black line shows the historical baseline. It makes it easy to compare them to each other.

The bottom panel shows the same timeline for that part of the region as in the graph. This can help break down differences in snowfall across that area. 

First, we will look at the two panels for winter 2026/2027 snowfall over time for New York State and New England, compared with average

The entire season

 

Month by Month

 

Second, we will look at the panels for the Middle Atlantic Region, compared with average

 

 

The entire season

 

Month by Month

 

Regional temperature and precipitation thoughts!

This is the part of the outlook, I’m least sure about

New York State and New England

For the 2026–2027 winter New York State and New England forecast it will be very tricky and volatile. Overall, it will be an El Nino‑driven season. But other teleconnections like the PDO, QBO and others, will make things interesting with frequent heavy, wet snow episodes—especially in the last half of winter—alongside rapid freeze‑thaw cycles and above‑normal precipitation risks.

El Nino tends to shift storm tracks offshore, increasing the number of nor’easters, but whether they bring rain or snow depends on temperature profiles.

When I looked at the past super El Nino’s of 1982–83, 1997–98 and 2015–16, with a somewhat similar setup.

every one of those El Nino years, overall were several degrees warmer than usual.

I tried to come up with some idea of what snowfall could look like in some of the cities across our region.

Buffalo looks to see overall seasonal snowfall of 55 to 75 inches. Syracuse likely sees between 85.0 to 140 inches.  Albany 40.0 to 70 inches, Boston 15 to 50 inches

The Mid-Atlantic region

As far as temperature, winter 2026-2027 will likely end up slightly warmer than the long-term average.

 But due to the storm track looking to favor an active southern jet stream, with several coastal/nor’easter storms likely. I do think the seasonal snowfall amounts in the I-95 corridor (major cities) are going to be slightly above to above average. New York City could see 5 to 18 inches above their general long-term average of around 30 inches. Philadelphia   could see 7-20 inches above what is considered their average of 23.1 inches.  Washington DC could see 6 to 18 inches above their 13.7-inch average.

The region as a whole

The Polar vortex will lead to at least one arctic air outbreak for the region to deal with; especially, during the second half of the winter. The entire region will likely see winter get off to a slow start, before we start to get colder for January and February.

Precipitation is likely to end up above the long-term average. But temperatures are going to be highly changeable, means what type of precipitation the region sees will depend on that volatile temperature profile. The entire region will see rain, ice/mix events, and snowfall, the analogue years show a strong prospect for at least on blockbuster event. With the idea of nor’easters being above what is considered average there will likely be surprises with how much snow ends up across the region. Who sees what will be highly dependent of the individual storm track of those nor’easters.  So, the seasonal snowfall ideas I presented could end up completely wrong, especially across the eastern half of the Northeast and Middle Atlantic.

The southern Appalachians could end up well above average when it comes to snowfall

 Lake-effect snowfall just downstream of the Great Lakes are likely to be below-normal this winter season given the expected overall warmer-than-normal conditions and reduced temperature contrast with the water temperatures.

 Summary

The current El Nino event will be the primary driver through the Spring 2027 season But the QBO and its relationship with the stratospheric polar vortex along with Atlantic SSTs in some areas as well as the negative phase of the PDO will also be major players in what unfolds.

The 2026-2027 Winter will be erratic and feature sharp contrasts, due to the active southern storm track. We can expect the temperatures to fluctuate, leading to periods of cold interspersed with milder breaks quick bursts of snow and cold along with a mix of rain, sleet/ice, and heavy wet snow in the Northeast and Middle Atlantic

I used the winters of 1957-1958, 1965-1966, 1972-1973, 1982-1983, 1991-1992, 1997-1998, 2015-2016, 2023-2024 as analogues.

This is likely to end up being the strongest El Nino in the written history. So, most are expecting a very warm winter. given the very strong El Nino events of 1982-1983, 1997-1998 and 2015-2016 all occurred during the positive phase of the PDO, where this winter will be the first recorded super El Nino with a negative PDO. So, relaying on those past super El Nino’s very well could lead us down the wrong path, with a negative PDO and westerly QPO thrown into the mix complicates the seasonal forecast to a huge degree, we’re basically in uncharted territory.  

Keep in mind, this outlook is not a guarantee how to season will exactly play out. The entire season see warm and dry periods, with cold weather and snowstorms mixed in.