Cool and Sunny, perfect apple picking weather!

This will be a very quick post.

Surface Chart, Radar and Satellite

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Today

We have high pressure in control of our weather. Outside of a bit cooler than the last few days, the weather is going to remain beautiful into much of next week.  The pressure gradient between the high pressure and Josephine will lead to an increasing northerly breeze today with gusts to 25-30 MPH possible this afternoon.

Subtropical Storm Josephine Formed off the East Coast yesterday. She has been plaguing the coast for days with coastal flooding and beach erosion. She will continue to head northeast today heading toward the Canadian Maritimes.  

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For tomorrow into next week.

High pressure will continue to stick around, making for crisp perfect weather to be outside.

Monday the perfect weather continues, but a weak moisture starved cold front will move into northern parts of the region, this will but a dent in the sunshine over parts of the region, but other than a low chance for very widely isolated rain showers that should be it.

Cooler temperatures will dive in behind the front on Tuesday with winds becoming more northeasterly. The chill and north-northeast winds will increase on Wednesday keeping us dry but with temperatures becoming cooler.  Then on Thursday an approaching cold front dropping south and east out of Canada and the Great Lakes will bring a better chance for rain showers Thursday and Friday.

I do think the pattern will become more active and stormy as we get around Halloween into the first week of November.

 

 

Several Days of Sunny and Dry!

Surface Chart, Radar and Satellite

 

Weather systems will become stationary across the Great Lakes and northeastern US as an intense storm does a loop the loop off the eastern seaboard. Luckily for us, with fair weather situated over our area, we’ll maintain uneventful and beautiful conditions through much of this week. The next chance of some rain will probably arrive a week from Tuesday. Even then it will most likely be spotty at most.

Today

High pressure is sitting overhead, providing lots of sun and mostly tranquil conditions. Temperatures started out chilly, but they will moderate as we get farther into today. We can see that coastal storm well offshore. Other than some higher waves that could lead to some coastal flooding, this won’t affect the region.  One thing the powerful deepening coastal storm will do as it meanders off the coast, is stall all those weather systems over the Great Lakes and back into the Rockies. There is a chance this becomes subtropical. The NHC has the 7-day development odds at 40%. So, there's a chance this could be given the name Josephine.

 

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The rest of the week.

With the pattern becoming stagnant the high pressure will be very persistent; allowing what we see today to continue for at least the next seven days, and maybe even a couple of days beyond that.  

I don’t expect any rain right through Wednesday, with temperatures become very mild for this time of year.

Dry weather may even continue for a few days beyond our 7-day forecast, plus we expect a good deal of sunshine most days! Yes, an incredible stretch any time of year, but especially in late October!  Most of the region won’t see much in the way of wind this coming week. But along the coast there could be a somewhat gusty northeast wind,

That coastal will finely start to drift east by Thursday. This will help clear the traffic jam of weather systems, allowing a disturbance to move across Canada. There is a slight chance a few isolated showers could show up over northern New York State and northern New England. That disturbance will have a very weak cold front drop in for Thursday night and Friday, this will allow some cooler air to move into the region. The area of low pressure will be moving into Southeast Canada, keeping the threat for a few rain showers over parts of Maine. But most shouldn’t see them.  We’re going to have another area of strong high pressure build in from the west on Friday. So, with low pressure up over the Canadian Maritimes and pushing east, winds are going to become gusty across northern parts of the region, especially for Maine where wind gust of 20-30 mph will be possible.

As the high-pressure setup overhead for the weekend, temperatures will be slightly cooler, but with the abundant sunshine I don’t think anyone will really mind.  These dry and tranquil conditions could extend into the first part of next week.

With the weather being so quiet for much of the week, I won’t be posting all that much, at least for the first part of the week!

I do have part two of the winter outlook ready, I just fine-tuning things a bit. I will be releasing the outlook some time over the next week or two.

 

 

  

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 687

 

SEL7

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 687
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   350 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Western Connecticut
     Delaware
     Eastern Maryland
     New Jersey
     Far Southern New York
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until
     1000 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

   SUMMARY...A line of storms will continue to progress
   east-northeastward toward the region into this evening, with wind
   damage as the primary severe hazard.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
   statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of
   Poughkeepsie NY to 35 miles south southwest of Dover DE. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 686...

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
   few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
   25035.

   ...Guyer

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 686

 

SEL6

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 686
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   125 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     District Of Columbia
     Maryland
     Southern New York
     Central and Eastern Pennsylvania
     Northern Virginia
     Eastern West Virginia
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 125 PM until
     800 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will continue to develop and intensify
   this afternoon, with the expectation that fast-moving bands/lines of
   storms will evolve with the potential for wind damage.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
   statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north of
   Wilkesbarre PA to 80 miles south southwest of Martinsburg WV. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
   few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
   25030.

   ...Guyer

Wet and stormy today with a look at the long range.

Surface Chart, Radar and Satellite

 

Today

On the surface chart we can see low pressure. This is going to strengthen and travel over the St. Lawrence Valley. We have that attached warm front lifting through the region, bringing milder air out of the southwest but also widespread rainfall that occasionally heavy, there will be a lull in the activity this afternoon. This will allow the atmosphere to destabilize more and create the risk for some thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.  Some of these storms could be strong to severe, the with main risk being damaging winds. Outside of the thunderstorm risk there will also be a risk for isolated strong and gusty winds ahead of the approaching cold front. Which will bring a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Those with the highest risk for seeing of damaging winds, severe thunderstorms and perhaps a tornado or two will be across eastern Pennsylvania into New Jersey and southern New York, where the SPC has a Slight Risk for Severe Weather. There is a chance that western Connecticut gets into some of this. The best time for any severe weather will be midafternoon into 9-10 pm.

 

Behind the cold front winds will be gusting to 30-50 mph, as a blast of cold air moves into the region. This is going to be the coldest air so far this season. These northwest winds will drive in well below average cold air. So tonight, and tomorrow will be quite chilly. Tomorrow will be chilly with the temperatures barely recovering from their morning lows.  With wind gust of 20-35 mph making, it feel even colder.  I still expect the higher elevations of the Tug Hill, Adirondacks, Greens and Whites, to see some snow showers overnight into Saturday morning most across northern New York State and northern New England will see little to no accumulation. But a slushy inch or two is possible in the higher spots, perhaps a bit more than that for some living in the peeks.

To the northwest, temps will fall into the 20s. Locally, we will struggle to drop below 40, but the wind will make it feel closer to freezing here.

The strong wind will begin to diminish as we get into Saturday night as high pressure builds into the region.  This area of high pressure will have some staying power. Leading to moderating temperatures becoming near average and generally dry weather for Sunday.  We will have some low pressure to our south and east on Monday, but other than a few showers along the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England Coast, the day should stay dry.  This warming trend and dry conditions will continue into Thursday with temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday 10-20 degrees above the historical average.  On Thursday low pressure once again looks to be sitting south and east of the region, bringing a chance for some rain showers for those closer to the coast, again everyone else should be dry.  Friday will see high pressure build back in pushing the low out of here leading to a very nice Fall Day.

Long Range

The very strong El Ninno is forecast to be the main driver of weather across the United States this winter, forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center said Oct. 15 in their annual winter outlook.

NOAA’s Updated Winter Temperature Outlook

NOAA’s temperature outlook favors warmer-than-average conditions across much of the northern United States, including the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast.

NOAA’s Winter Precipitation Forecast

NOAA favors above-normal precipitation across much of the southern United States, including California, the Southwest and portions of the southern Rockies. The wetter signal also extends across much of the Southeast and along the East Coast.

 

You can see that southern storm track I talked about in the Winter Outlook. 

El Nino

SST anomalies in the four El Nino zones are Nino 4 at 0.2ºC, Nino 3.4 at 2.4ºC Nino 3 at 3.4ºC and Nino 1+2 at 4.4ºC. This shows we’re definitely in a very strong (super) El Nino.

This is the reason for that strong active Subtropical Jet

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

As I’ve been saying for the last several months; we’re in a negative PDO. This is the first time in recorded history a Super El Nino has seen the PDO in this phase. The temperature difference between the northern Pacific and the cold near to the Arctic Circle, is leading to these near continual Aleutian lows setting up.  The air rotates around them, directing warm moist air into Northwestern Canada, cutting off a lot of the cold air from moving south.

Both of these are the reason for the pattern looking the way it is.  

As I’ve discussed since I released part one of the winter outlook, the long wave pattern is becoming active and very amplified.  We have these strong storms crossing the Anadyr Gulf and Bering Sea and slamming into Alaska; so, the Pacific Jet is very active. Because of these strong Aleutian Lows The storm track will adjust southward and more of these storms will impact California; depending on the longwave pattern at the time, some of these storms will move into the Plains and hook back into Canada, but others will move along the Subtropical Jet across the Southern and Southeast, with some of these moving up the East Coast. During the upcoming winter a lot warmer than average air will be hanging around the northern tier of the U.S. But not all the time. As I was saying in the winter outlook, there could be quite a few nor’easters this winter.  This topsy Turvey pattern is going to be the predominate pattern for winter 2026-2027.  Warm and cold spells will impact the lower 48. This could lead to a winter pattern that will surprise many. The outlook does cover all of this in great detail. So, if you haven’t read it, you should. I will release part 2 in a few weeks.

 

 Have a great weekend 

 

 

Tranquil today but it won’t last!

 Surface Chart, Radar and Satellite

 

Today

The cold front has pushed south of the region, and we have high pressure overhead keeping things very tranquil. The cold front has pushed south of the region.  Temperatures will be generally where they should be for this time of year. But we’re going to have a strong storm system move through the Great Lakes bringing big chances for tomorrow

As a cold front approaches this evening. Those in western New York State will see rain move in after sunset.

 

The rest of the week.

The rain looks to move into western Pennsylvania tomorrow morning. As the potent cold front continues to advance west to east widespread rain will advance with it. The rain will continue through the afternoon and into Friday night. scattered and last into the evening. Ahead of the powerful cold front, southwest winds will provide milder temperatures into Saturday.  During Friday winds will be very windy and gusty, 20-30 mph with gust as high as 40-50 mph. We’re likely to see a line develop, bring very heavy rain and some thunderstorms.  Some of these storms could become strong to severe producing the chance for damaging winds, especially south of the eastern Mohawk Valley. The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk for severe storms across Southeast New York State, most of Pennsylvania along with Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey. The SPC has upgraded a large part of eastern Pennsylvania into northwest New Jersey and eastern Maryland to a Slight Risk. As I said, the biggest threat will be damaging straight line winds, but a brief tornado or two will be possible, especially for those in the Delaware River Valley down into the Delmarva.  General rainfall totals across the region look to be 0.25 - 1.5 inches.

The cold front is going to drag in much colder air behind it.  Temperatures will be plummeting Friday night and Saturday.  That influx of fridged Canadian air will support a transition to wet snow across the higher elevations and mountains Friday night into Saturday morning.  Lower Elevations will see snow mixing in with a dusting to an inch, while the higher elevations of the Tug Hill, Adirondacks, Green and White Mountains see generally an inch to perhaps three inches. While the highest peaks seeing a chance for a bit more than that. The elevations below 1500 feet could end up with a a coating, the lower elevations and valley locations could see flakes, but no accumulation is expected.  Saturday is going to be very blustery with temperatures plunging during the day. Most of the precipitation will be over, but a couple of lingering showers will be possible for the first part of the day. High pressure will be building in, providing clearing skies. Saturday night is going to be very cold, with the clear skies and diminishing winds it will likely mark the end of the growing season for the vast majority of the region. Sunday will start out cold, but temperatures are going to recover a bit and winds will be lighter.

For the first part of next week, high pressure will be in control, allowing lots of sun with temperatures becoming closer to average. Overall, it will be a nice stretch of fall weather.

 

 

One cold front moving through with another on the way!

The views have been dropping off lately, is there something I could be doing differently? 

We have that cold front dropping south across Pennsylvania and southern New England, ahead of the front there will be near to breaking record warmth, behind it’s still going to be fairly mild. We do have a few scattered showers ahead of and along the frontal boundary, with some isolated showers behind it. We will have high pressure set up for tomorrow, providing a dry and tranquil day.

We do have another system approaching out of the Midwest. A leading warm front will bring another surge of warmth for Thursday night into Friday morning; with the front there will be isolated rain showers and a chance for a few thunderstorms. But then the bottom drops out for Friday and the Weekend. A strong cold front will drop in for Friday.  As strengthening low pressure moves across the New York State tracking through the St. Lawrence Valley into Northern New England. Winds will turn out of the north and northwest.  With the cold front scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are likely, isolated storms could become strong to severe, with damaging wind gust the main threat.

Those with the greatest risk of seeing the severe storms will be over Southeast Pennsylvania, into New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware.

The Low pressure will move off the Coast where it will continue to deepen. It could end up reaching bombogenesis (bombing out) over the Canadian Maritimes. A storm bombs out when we see a pressure drop of 24+ millibars over a 24-hour period. If this happens, it could generate some very strong wind gust.  The biggest wind impacts will be along the immediate coast with wind gust up to 40–50 mph possible with 30–40 mph gust inland. The coldest air so far this season will drop in for Friday night and the Weekend, with temperatures running well below the long-term average.  This could be a big snowmaker for parts of eastern Canada. For our region most locations from will get rain and showers. But there will be snowflakes flying across parts of northern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.

Friday night into Saturday morning, rain transitions to wet snow above 1,500 feet across the Tug Hill, Adirondacks, Green and White Mountains accumulations of 1-3 inches look likely.  The highest elevations in the mountains could see 3-6 inches of snow, with a rain and wet snow mix extending down into lower elevation valleys with no real accumulation.

 Saturday will be cold with gusty northwest winds.  Wind will be 10-20 mph with gust looking to be 20-40 mph. the morning will be showery, with rain showers clearing late morning into the afternoon.   These northwest winds will usher even colder air into the region. Those winds will make it feel even colder. While the cold temperatures won’t be good for fall colors, the gusty winds will likely bring down quite a few leaves still on the trees. Then high pressure will build in bringing plenty of sunshine for Saturday night and Sunday. Skies will clear leading to a very chilly night. High pressure looks to be in control for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures slowly warming each day. The first half of next week looks to be mostly dry.

Have a great day!

 

Milder, with rain and storms then cold air moves in!

 

We have yet another strong storm is going to move into Alaska and the Northwest Territories. This is the same pattern we’re going to be seeing as we head through the winter. These large Aleutian Lows are the result of the cold air over Siberia into Alaska and those warm SST in the northern Pacific. The temperature contrast is creating a lot of kinks in the Pacific Jet. This is resulting on very deep troughing which ends up driving tropical moisture out of the Central Pacific northward into Alaska, Yukon and the Northwest Territories.  The Pacific Jet pushes the cold air into the Arctic, while warmer air moves into Canada due to the ridge that sets up due to the placement of the trough over the Aleutians. This is the main pattern I think we’re going to see on display for this winter. All of this will lead to a very strong southern Subtropical Jet with the storm pattern having the storm track going into California, instead of British Columbia and the Pacific Northeast. This will allow a lot of energy to track along the southern jet, then as shortwaves travel along the polar jet, these kinks in the stream could lead to phasing chances between the subtropical and polar jets.   Some of those disturbances in the southern stream will move up the East Coast, then if the cold air is in place, big nor’easters will be possible.

I laid all of this out in the first part of my winter outlook, so if you haven’t read it; I encourage you to do so!

Anyway, what about the Northeast this week.

 

 

Today is going to be mild but gloomy with widespread rain and downpours along with isolated thunderstorms, across New York State and northern into Central New England, this will be especially true for the western and northern parts of New York State. Some of these storms could be strong to severe; the main threat will be localized damaging wind gust and possibly a brief tornado. Here’s a look at the Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) thunderstorm outlook, they have a Marginal Risk over Western into Central New York State.  South and east of there will be scattered rain showers. The farther south and east you get the less rain you will see.  With the frontal boundary winds will be gusting up to 30-40 mph along and south and west of the boundary.

For Wednesday the cold front will slowly sag southward later in the day. As this drops south, some isolated showers will be possible across Pennsylvania into the Middle Atlantic. Most of these showers should be spotty and shouldn’t amount too much. We will stay breezy for tomorrow.

Thursday High pressure will make for a mostly dry day, with seasonal temperatures. But the mild weather will be short lived as a strong cold front will drop in for Friday.  Friday will feature not only rain but up to 30 to 40 mph winds. Much colder air settles in behind the front on Friday. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will work through the region; some of these storms could be strong to severe. As the front drops south, a big area of low pressure will set up in the Canadian Maritimes.  As temperatures plummet behind the front, the coldest air of the season will drop in. With the cold air in place, snow showers in the higher elevations of northern half of New York State as well as central and northern New England; it's possible there could be some snow showers even in some of the lower elevations. Those with the best chance of seeing some accumulating snow will be the Tug Hill along with the Adirondack, Green and White Mountains. 

Saturday will stay cold, the colder air moving over the Lower Great Lakes, will allow for some lake-effect rain, and the potential for some mix/snow to develop downwind of both Erie and Ontario over the weekend. Skies will clear and winds will drop across the entire region Saturday night, setting up the potentially for a widespread frost and or freeze, for southern New York State Pennsylvania, and maybe even parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic could see the end of the growing season.

I've been doing a lot of work to get ready for the upcoming winter, So the scope of these posts are smaller than they have been. But I've been working them in for all y'all!

Have a great rest of your day.  

Topsy Turvey Week with Snow for some!

This week is going to be up and down and volatile with a chance for many kinds of weather. For the last few days, I’ve been talking about all of this, including the chance for some snow for some of us.

 

Surface Chart, Radar and Satellite

 

Today

We’re watching low-pressure slowly exiting the region. Today will be seasonably cool with just a chance for isolated rain showers. High pressure is setting up overhead. But its stay will be brief for today we’re going to see clearing develop west to east. We do have low pressure approaching the Great Lakes and Midwest.  The leading warm front could bring showers into western parts of the region tonight.  Ahead of that approaching Canadian cold front, those northern higher elevation areas could see some snow or snow/rain mix during the overnight.

The rest of the week.

The warm front will continue to advance through the region tomorrow; gusty southwest winds will bring in milder air. Wind gust of 20-25 mph will be possible. Those in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and NYC into New England, will see only a chance for a few isolated rain showers. But the farther north you are the greater your chance of seeing rain.  With the frontal passage, northern Pennsylvania, New York State and Northern and Central New England can expect scattered rain showers and some downpours along with isolated thunderstorms. These storms will have the potential to become strong to severe. The greatest risk will be damaging winds, but there is also a very slight tornado risk.    The Storm Prediction Center has a Moderate Risk for Severe Storms over western into central New York State.  

 

For our Wednesday, the cold front will continue to drop south through the region keeping things unsettled across New York State and northern/central New England, widely scattered rain showers will be dropping through Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey. Then the front will move back north. Then on Thursday high pressure will build in overhead. Providing clearer skies with seasonable temperatures. Then Friday will bring the chance for widespread wet weather.  We’re going to see a cold front move through on Friday, ushering in colder air for the weekend. The front will bring widespread rain showers and gusty winds along with the chance for isolated thunderstorms. With the cold air moving in, accumulating snow is likely for the Tug Hill, Adirondacks, Greens, and Whites along the northern Maine (especially Aroostook County) for Friday night into Saturday. but even the lower elevations may see some snowflakes Friday night into Saturday.

Tricky week ahead!

 

Surface Chart, Radar and Satellite

 

 

   

Today

We’re dealing with what’s left of Isaias. There are no real changes to what I’ve been saying for the last few days.  

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The rest of the week.

The weather for this current week is going to be tricky. But what happens over the 2^nd half of this week, is going to depend on what happens out west and how two tropical systems interact with an upper-level feature in the Pacific Northwest.

 

Tropical

I typically don’t talk about tropical activity in the Pacific. But in this setup we have to discuss it. 

 

Tropical Storm Rachel made landfall late Saturday night in northern Baja California and is now a remnant low over the Southwest. Rachel will continue to gradually weaken and turn to the northeast later today as it heads into southern Utah.

Hurricane Simon

Simon has strengthened to strong 145 mph Category 4 hurricane. Looking at the satellite image, we can see his eye is very close the coast between Playa Perula and Cabo Corrientes. Will this keep him from reaching Category 5? Maybe, maybe not. But that really won’t matter as far as impacts. Simon is dumping a lot of rain over parts of southwestern Mexico. Rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches will bring a lot of flooding.  Simon should continue to track northward along Mexico's coast. He should begin to gradually weakening and looks to become a tropical storm Tuesday. But if his core moves ashore quicker than expected he could weaken much quicker, as he interacts with the higher terrain. His remnants very well could move north into the U.S.

 

We have an upper-level trough sitting over the Pacific Northwest with a strong cold front pushing across the Divide. This is pulling tropical moisture northward. With the cold air that is in place this is bringing a lot of snow into southwest and west-central Montana, into Idaho and Wyoming. The snow is also making it into Alberta, British Columbia, and Saskatchewan. Most of this snow is above 4,000 feet.  For Montana, general snowfall today looks to be between 6 and 10 inches of snow through Monday morning.  When all is done, this weekend storm will bring 1 to as much as 4 feet of snow in the highest elevations, especially west of the Divide.

 

The upper-level low is going to work its way east. By Thursday what’s left of Simon is going to be pushing into the Central Plains, bringing tropical moisture with it. All of this looks to interact as things push into the Upper Great Lakes.  We’re going to have high pressure building over the Plains. This is going to allow the Middle part of the Country to warm to well above average. While this is going on colder air will be falling down the ridge axis into the Great Lakes, Midwest and East Coast.  The question is how cold does it get?  The GFS model is bringing in a lot of cold, with the trough extending down near the Gulf Coast. The EURO model is much less rambunctious with the dynamics.   The GFS is a bit farther west with the ridge than the EURO. All of this has big implications on what happens in the Northeast and Northern Middle Atlantic next weekend. 

The Northeast will see clearing develop west to east tomorrow. Tuesday and Wednesday will turn milder, but as low pressure develops it will turn breezy (gusts of 20 to 30 mph) for Tuesday and Wednesday as the cold front approaches the region. Tuesday will see a few showers and isolated thunderstorms, as some of the moisture from Rachel gets mixed in. Then things will begin to cool off as Canadian air moves into the region. As the air gets colder Tuesday night rain showers will change over to a rain/snow mix over northern parts of the region, this will be especially true in the higher elevations above 2000 feet. The highest elevations could see a bit of accumulation. After a cold start on Wednesday temperatures will moderate and become quite mild.  This will clear to the east. As a trough builds in from the west.  We will cool back off again for Friday into the weekend. Then we will see another storm approach, this one will have moisture from Simon and likely some of Rachel enhancing things. How it turns out will depend on which model is correct. It will end up being a mix of what the GFS and EURO are thinking, but right now I think the EURO has the better handle on things. So, the northeast into the northern Middle Atlantic will become cool, likely cool enough for snow to mix in across New York State and northern into Central New England. Accumulating snow will be possible in the higher elevations of the Adirondacks, Greens, and Whites.  

 

 

Nice today but we deal with Isaias tomorrow!

 Hurricane Isaias made landfall into the U.S. Gulf Coast as a dangerous Category 2 storm on Friday, at 9:30 PM EDT near Destin, Florida (around 48 miles east of Pensacola). With maximum sustained winds of 105 mph, just below major hurricane status.

Isaias was the strongest hurricane to hit this part of Florida/Alabamia since September 2020. Sally made a landfall in Gulf Shores, AL at 5am on Wednesday, September 16th as a strong Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph. Isaias is also the first hurricane to strike the U.S. in two years.

He degenerated very quickly once moving inland and became a post-tropical cyclone with 35 mph winds

what’s left of the storm is bringing driving rain through the midsouth and southeast. The storm will keep pushing north over the next 36 hours.

For today 

Surface/radar/satellite chart

Severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes remain possible in Georgia, the eastern Florida Panhandle, and the Carolinas through tonight. Today South Carolina into East Georgia is under a Slight Risk. For our region, today will be very pleasant, dry but cool day. Skies will be sunnier the farther north you go.

Sunday

The SPC brings the risk for severe thunderstorms and perhaps a few tornadoes into Northern Georga and the Carolinas tomorrow.  There is a chance for very isolated thunderstorms across southern New York State and southern New England and points south. 

Isaias's remnants will still bring rain and breezy conditions into the region for Sunday

 Wind

Across southwest Pennsylvania wind gust of 30-40 mph with gust upwards of 55 mph across the higher terrain.  Southeast Pennsylvania, Maryland Delaware, New Jersey, into New York City and Long Island Sunday look to see gust upwards of 30-40 mph. The rest of Pennsylvania and much of New York State into southern and central New England look to see wind gust of 10-30 mph. Farther north gusty winds of 5-20 mph will be possible

 

Rainfall

I went over rainfall in yesterday’s post. But generally, rainfall across southern Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, up into New York City and Long Island along with far southern New England including the offshore Islands 1-2 inches of rain is likely Sunday into Monday morning.  North of there up through central New York State and Central New England rainfall amounts of 0.50 to 1.00 inches. Northern New York State and northern New England .0.25 to 0.50 inches look likely.  

In all of these areas there could be locally higher amounts. Those that see the higher rain amounts could see some minor urban and poor drainage flooding.

General timing has a chance for rain showers working into Southwest Pennsylvania this evening, with rain working north from there tonight and Sunday. Rain would make it into Southern New York State Sunday morning. Then into Central New York State late morning early afternoon, into southwest New England between noon and midafternoon then Southeast New England mid to late afternoon. And northern New England Sunday evening to Sunday night.

Lingering rain will last across eastern New England into Monday morning (Columbus Day).

 

Monday will not be a washout, with clearing developing during the day. Then a cold front will come through for Tuesday bringing cooler temperatures and scattered rain showers. Northern parts of New York State and northern New England could see a rain/mix with some light accumulations in the highest elevations of the Adirondacks, Greens and Whites.