Before we talk about the upcoming winter; let’s take a look
at how summer 2026 generally unfolded.
This Summer saw record heat in a large part of contiguous
United States, with precipitation generally running average to below average.
Summer temperature and precipitation patterns for the
contiguous United States
Warmest Summer on Record
The average temperature for meteorological summer
(June–August) 2026 was the warmest for the CONUS in the 132-year record,
exceeding the previous records, set in 1936 and 2021, by 0.4°F.
Mean
temperature percentiles for CONUS from June-August 2026. The map displays red
colors indicating above-normal temperatures. Cooler than normal areas are
represented by shades of blue. Data Source: NOAA’s National Centers of
Environmental Information.
The national map of the CONUS displays NOAA mean temperature
percentiles for June through August 2026, ranking temperatures relative to the
1895–2026 historical record. The data shows widespread well above-average
temperatures across most of the country, with extreme heat concentrated in the
Southwest and Four Corners region—encompassing Utah, Colorado, Arizona, New
Mexico, and extending into Texas—where conditions ranked as much above average
to warmest on record. Southern Florida also recorded warmest-on-record
temperatures. Eastern New England, Southeast Pennsylvania, Eastern Maryland,
Delaware and Southern New Jersey also saw much above-average temperatures. The
rest of the Northeast saw average to above average temperatures.
Precipitation generally ran average to Below Normal for
Most of CONUS
The CONUS received 8.11 inches of precipitation during
summer, 0.21 inch below the 20th-century average, ranking in the driest third
of the record. Alaska’s June–August precipitation averaged 10.67 inches, 0.67
inch above average, also ranking in the middle third of the record. June–August
precipitation averaged 28.24 inches across Hawaii, 14.83 inches above average,
ranking as the second-wettest summer on record.
Precipitation
departure from average for CONUS from June-August 2026. The map displays green
colors indicating above-normal precipitation. Drier than normal areas are
represented by shades of brown. Data Source: NOAA’s National Centers of
Environmental Information.
Map of the contiguous United States showing NOAA
precipitation departures from average for June through August 2026, compared to
the 1901–2000 historical baseline. Widespread above-average precipitation, with
surpluses ranging from 1 to over 18 inches, spans across much of the Central
Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, and parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and the
Mid-Atlantic. In contrast, below-average precipitation extends across the
Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, Southwest, Deep South, and Southeast,
Maine, Central New York State and part of Northeast Pennsylvania with the most
notable deficits of 3 to over 18 inches concentrated in coastal Florida,
southern Georgia, and coastal North Carolina.
As I mentioned a week ago, we’re seeing the collapse of
the summers most donating feature…the heat dome. So now we’re in a transition
to a cooler and wetter overall pattern for parts of the CONUS.
The hurricane season so far.
The Atlantic hurricane season continues to mosey along at a
record-low pace. September is normally
the height of hurricane season in the Atlantic. We’re only a couple of weeks
past Sept. 10, ordinarily the season’s peak. So far, there have been eight
tropical storms (including the latest TS Hanna) and no hurricanes. This is primarily
due to the very strong El Nino pattern, which created unfavorable conditions
for the formation and growth of tropical storm systems.
This hurricane season has supposedly broken a 112-year
record now that the Atlantic has gone without a hurricane through Sept; If this
year’s Atlantic season has no hurricanes by Nov. 30, that will be only the
third such season on record, preceded by 1914 and 1907, I say supposedly because before the satellite
era we don’t really truly know if those years had hurricanes or not!
In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) the season has been incredibly
uneventful. As of September 29, 2026, the preliminary Atlantic ACE for
the 2026 hurricane season is 10.1, which is only 8% of the 1991–present normal,
classifying the season as well below average.
OK what about the 2026-2027 winter.
By now just about everyone should know, we’re in a very
strong El Nino (Super El Nino), that hasn’t even peaked yet! A strong El Nino likely
will drive a wet, active southern storm track while the northern tier gets its
cold in short bursts,
The idea of an El Nino winter most likely has many of y’all
thinking of a warm and boring winter season. But that is far from the truth. We’re going to experience a huge atmospheric
shift, that is going to lead to a very active pattern, with a very energized
southern Subtropical Jet. And the northern Jet pushing farther north. With the Pacific Jet (the band of air moving
west to east at high altitudes) becoming very active, storms are going to push
into California, dive into the southwest and then ride that subtropical jet to
the East Coast. The Pacific Jet typically acts like a block, keeping a lot of
the cold air locked up in Canada. This will bring a lot of storminess to the
southern tier of the U.S. The southeast
US could see quite a few winter storms; some of those storms will likely ride
up the East Coast and become nor’easters. Super El Nino’s are highly prone to Miller A type
nor’easters (more on nor’easter type later in the post). El Nino’s like
1997-1998 and 2015-2016 saw very strong, frequent coastal storms. One possible reason? El Nino causes the
Pacific jet stream, to shift south. That provides a supply of energy and
moisture for storms that can take shape off the Southeastern United States then
swing north. This is something that we might have an expectation for through
the rest of this upcoming winter, given the prominence of the El Nino that’s
evolving.
Storms that
follow a classic nor’easter track from south of Cape Hatteras along the East
Coast are the main contributor to this increase. Strong El Nino events are
particularly associated with this increase.
Remember a winter outlook is not a snowfall forecast. It
gives the probability that a three-month average finishes above, near or below
average. However, seasonal averages cannot predict individual storms or totals
months in advance. This is a very long post, but it will give you an overall feel of what I expect how the
winter pattern will generally behave.
What about the El Nino?
The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a large-scale
pattern centered in the tropical Pacific. When dealing with El Nino the equatorial
Pacific Ocean warms and the atmosphere responds, the resulting changes can
influence the position and strength of the jet stream, storm tracks and
large-scale circulation across North America.
We continue to track the growth of this Super El Nino event.
Equatorial sea surface temperatures
(SSTs) are above average across the eastern into central Pacific. As of 21 September 2026, the Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature
anomaly reached 3.11 °C, surpassing the previous daily record of 3.08 °C set
during the last super El Nino in November 2015. There is no reason to suspect
this current El Nino has peaked, all strong El Nino events on record have
continued to strengthen well into the winter There is no doubt that the central
and eastern Pacific Ocean, will be a major global weather driver for 2026/2027.
Here’s a graphic showing the area of strong above-normal
ocean temperature in the ENSO region in the tropical Pacific.
The latest NOAA CRW ocean analysis below shows the ENSO area
covered in substantial warm anomalies. Peak warm anomalies are found in the
eastern parts, now reaching more than 6 degrees above normal (11°F) over a
large area. This is an exceptionally strong anomaly and an indicator of the
strength of this event.
Below you can see the subsurface temperature anomaly across
the tropical Pacific in the top 650 ft (200 meters) of the ocean. This reveals
the core force of the 2026/2027 Super El Nino event: a powerful downwelling
Kelvin Wave, with peak anomalies over 9 degrees (16°F) above normal. It is
pushing eastward and rising toward the surface. Kelvin waves are massive pulses that travel through the
ocean or atmosphere. These downwelling, Kelvin waves have transported
subsurface heat eastward and contributed to the strengthening of this El Nino
event.
In its latest monthly discussion, NOAA's Climate Prediction
Center said El Nino is strengthening, with a greater than 90 percent chance of
a very strong event through the Northern Hemisphere (NH) fall and winter.
This winter’s primary driver is going to be El Nino.
In the post leading up to this first installment of part one
of the 2026-2027 winter outlook. I laid out the similarities and differences
between past super El Nino’s and this one.
In June of this year, subsurface ocean heat was at +2.25°C.
When looking back at June 1997 the subsurface water temperature was also at +2.25°C.
For that reasons many people and weather outlets have made strong comparisons
between 2026 and 1997. So, they are expecting a temperature pattern that looks something
like this. They’re also expecting a similar precipitation pattern
The problem with that idea, is the current super El Nino has
far exceeded that. So, this El Nino is much stronger than the 1997-1998 El
Nino. Based on strength this El Nino could end up being historic. But what many
aren’t thinking about is that the outcome we saw in the 1997-1998 Super El Nino
wasn’t because of the strength of that El Nino. Instead, several factors that
laid under the surface, is what cause that winters temperature and
precipitation pattern. This is why I’ve
been spending so much time talking about how this currently Super El Nino is
different, not only from 1997-1998 but also 1982-1983 and 2015 -2016.
Since 1950, there have been eleven weak, seven moderate,
three strong and four very strong El Nino falls and winters.
Most El Nino events peak in late fall or early winter, like
the forecast above also shows for this year. Its location will bring strong
winter temperature and snowfall pattern anomalies into the United States and
Canada.
The strongest El Nino’s on record Dec1982-Feb1983, Nov 1877-Jan
1878, Oct 1902-Dec1902, Nov 1997-Jan 1998.
When trying to draw conclusions about the upcoming fall and
winter, we're working with an admittedly small sample size. So, surprises are most likely going to happen.
This El Nino is going to be not only strong but long
lasting. It will likely go well into next Spring.
Super El Nino Snowfall Patterns: What Past Winters Show
Usually, the impact of these ocean anomalies comes with
changes to the jet stream. As most of
y’all know, the jet stream is a large ribbon of air at around 5-7 miles above
the surface. It brings moisture and precipitation, so it has a significant
effect on snowfall patterns.
In the image below from NOAA Climate, you can see the
average position of the jet stream during El Nino winters and the resulting
weather patterns over the United States and Canada. What stands out is the
stronger Pacific jet stream across the southern United States.
An extended Pacific jet stream brings along lower pressure,
cooler temperatures, and more moisture. This combination can really increase
the snowfall potential across the central and eastern United States. But that
will depend on if enough cold air is available.
The jet stream changes also shape the snowfall patterns.
Below is a NOAA snowfall composite for all moderate and strong El Nino events.
Above-average snowfall (blue) was recorded across the Sierra Nevada, the Four
Corners, the Southern Rockies, and over parts of the Central Plains and into
the South and for the Southeast up into the Middle Atlantic.
Large snowfall deficits (brown) were recorded over the
Pacific Northwest, the Great Lakes, and the Northeast. This shows that despite
a good jet stream position, the warm Canadian ridge limits cold air intrusions
and can suppress sustained northern storm tracks.
The map below shows winter snowfall departure from average
during the very strong El Nino of 1982-1983. Lake-effect areas of New York, as
well as parts of northern New England, had snowfall deficits exceeding 24
inches. However, the area from eastern West Virginia to central New Jersey,
including the heavily populated Interstate 95 corridor, generally saw a
snowfall surplus of over 6 inches.
El Nino isn’t the only game in town, there are other factors
that drive a winter forecast, such as preceding tropical activity, other
teleconnections, solar activity and Siberian snow cover.
The PDO
In the post leading up to this outlook, I’ve talked a lot
about the PDO. the warm or cold phases can persist for decades. For example, a
predominately cold phase occurred from 1947 to 1976 (blue bars), and a 21-year
warm phase occurred from 1977 to 1998 (red bars).
These decadal cycles broke down in late 1998 when the PDO
entered a cold phase that lasted only five years. This cold phase was followed
by a warm phase from 2003 to 2007 and an abrupt change to a cold phase from
2008 to 2013 (with a short interruption during the moderate El Nino in
fall/winter 2009-2010). The PDO then switched phases again in 2014 and remained
positive until 2018. This period coincided with a large marine heatwave (The Blob) and El
Nino that negatively impacted the marine ecosystem in the NE Pacific during
that time. Since 2020, the PDO has been consistently negative, reaching the
most negative values since 1955 in both 2024 and 2025.
The Blob was a nickname given to an area of very warm water in
the northern Pacific Ocean near the North American coast from Alaska down to
Mexico that warmed beyond typical seasonal temperatures. It started in late
2013 and grew in size for 2014- 2015 and dissipated more or less in 2016. During
its height sea surface temperatures ran as much as 7°F above average.
As I’ve said before the last most recent Super El Ninos, were
positive PDO’s. But this current El Nino is in a negative phase. The last El
Nino that also had a negative PDO was 2023-2024, but that El Nino was much
weaker than the Super El Ninos. In the image above we can see negative PDOs tend to run a bit cooler in the Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic region. Negative PDO also tend to see higher amounts of wintertime precipitation.
Because of this, the upcoming winter might not be as warm as
many are thinking. It also could mean parts of the region see somewhat higher snowfall amounts than is typical of El Nino, depending on timing and availability of cold air.
Current Northern Hemisphere snow and ice cover
Northern hemisphere snow cover (white) and sea ice (yellow)
22 September 2025 (left) and 2026 (right). Map source: National Ice Center
(NIC).
Europe-Asia snow cover (white) and sea ice (yellow) 22
September 2025 (left) and 2026 (right). Map source: National Ice Center (NIC).
Alaska-Canada snow cover (white) and sea ice (yellow) 22
September 2025 (left) and 2026 (right). Map source: National Ice Center (NIC).
NH Ice extent
Shown above are up-to-date satellite observations of the sea
ice covers of the Arctic, along with comparisons with
the historical satellite record of more than 4 decades. The plots and
color-coded maps are chosen to provide information about the current state of
the sea ice cover and how the most current daily data available compare with
the record lows and record highs for the same date during the satellite era.
Sea ice concentration is the percent areal coverage of ice within the data
element (grid cell). Sea ice extent is the integral sum of the areas of all
grid cells with at least 15% ice concentration, while sea ice area is the
integral sum of the product of ice concentration and area of all grid cells
with at least 15% ice concentration. The dashed vertical line indicates the
date of the latest plotted and mapped data.
NH Arctic Ice Extent map
10-year averages between 1979 and 2018 and yearly averages
for 1980, 2012, and 2026 of the daily (a) ice extent and (b) ice area in the
NH and a listing of the extent and area of the current,
historical mean, minimum, and maximum values in km2.
Right now, snow extent in Siberia is less than it was at this time last year. Ice extent around Alaska is also a little less than it was last year at this time.
December through February Northeast snowfall anomaly for
2026-2027
I found these map tools on Severe Weather Europe. They show
the ECMWF snowfall forecast.
The top plot shows the snowfall accumulation over a season
(or a month) for a specific region or individual states/countries. The snowfall
forecast trend (red line) can be easily seen and when the forecast shows
more/less snowfall during winter compared to the historical baseline (black
line). They will give a good overall look at how the anomalies should behave for the
2026-2027 winter.
Monthly breakdown
December
January
February
Entire seasonal breakdown
December through February
Nor’easters
For this I will have to put my teacher cap on. Why discuss nor’easters?
given how they could impact the region,
I think it’s important to understand how they can and very well could impact the region
this winter.
Meteorologists identify nor’easters based on their paths and
impacts by using the Miller classification system, named after researcher J.E.
Miller, from the 1940s. These storm systems, which typically occur in the fall
and winter months, form when cold air over the continental United States
clashes with warm, moist air from the Gulf and the Atlantic Ocean. Heavy snow,
severe weather, damaging wind gusts, coastal flooding and erosion are all
possible during a nor’easter event.
Originally, only two types of storms - Miller Type A and
Miller Type B – were used for identification purposes, but in the early 2000s, identification
types expanded to three additional types, creating five distinct
categories: Type A, Type B, Type C, Type D and Type E.
Each type of nor’easter has unique characteristics and
impact zones that can lead to devastating conditions for certain parts of our region.
Miller A
This is what is typically called a classic nor’easter. This
event happens when a strong polar jet dips southward and meets a low-pressure
system that develops in the Gulf of Mexico or off the southwest Atlantic Coast. The system’s
origin point is often a frontal boundary that is draped across the Gulf Coast
and Florida. As the low moves up the Eastern Seaboard, the system usually
rapidly intensifies with significant snowfall likely in the mid-Atlantic and
into areas of the interior Northeast.
Miller B
During a Miller Type B nor’easter, a significant primary storm
system usually races through the Ohio Valley only to fall apart around the
Appalachians. The energy transfers to the coast and a new center later
redevelops along the East Coast and produces a more significant storm system
than compared to the primary low pressure. This pattern leads to heavy snowfall
in the Ohio Valley as well as higher elevations in the Northeast and New
England.
Miller C
Miller C events begin as an area of primary low pressure in
the Plains or the Rockies, which moves Plains into the Tennessee and Ohio
valleys. In the meantime, a much weaker secondary area of low pressure develops
along the Gulf Coast and works inland. The two areas eventually interact and merge,
with the primary low-pressure system taking control over the Tennessee Valley
and the Appalachians before exiting to the north and east. Due to this track, a
significant precipitation shield can extend from Missouri through the Ohio
Valley and into major cities in the Northeast.
Miller D
Unlike most other types of nor’easters, Miller Type D events
most often occur during an El Nino phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation.
Because El Nino is known to increase the activity of the southern tropical jet,
which aids in moisture and storm development. During a Type D setup, the
northern jet is usually well displaced with little to no phase from the storm
system to the south, with the greatest typical snowfall occurring from the
Georgia mountains, through eastern Tennessee, the Carolinas, through Virginia
and the Delmarva Peninsula. Unlike other types of nor’easters, this event only
involves one area of low pressure, which begins in the western Gulf and slowly
organizes and strengthens over the Southeast US
Miller E
During this setup, two areas of low pressure often exist
east of the Rockies: a fast-moving clipper system over the Great Lakes in the
polar jet and a much stronger low-pressure system in the subtropical jet that
rapidly deepens along the coast. The two
systems eventually phase over the Northeast and New England, but the nor’easter
wouldn’t exist without the powerful coastal low. Due to significant moisture,
heavy snow often falls from the Deep South through Canada, but the exact area
of heavier snow depends on the trajectory of the main area of low pressure. A
track over the Eastern Seaboard allows warm air to stream northward, creating
the potential for mixed precipitation along the coast. A track offshore puts
much of the I-95 corridor directly in the path of the heaviest snowfall.
NOAA Climate Prediction Center Winter Temperature and
Precipitation Outlook
The Climate Prediction Center issued its updated seasonal
outlook on 17 September 2026, covering December 2026 through February 2027.
Regional Breakdown
Northeast
A split and highly variable pattern: Southern inland areas
colder and snowier; northern areas warmer with below‑normal
snowfall. Winter weather will depend on storm tracks, available cold air, and
short-term patterns.
Early/mid‑January expected to be the coldest
periods; snow most frequent mid‑Dec, mid‑Jan then
again in early/late March.
Coastal Northeast likely to see more rain or mixed
precipitation due to marginal temperatures. But snowstorms will be possible
depending on the extent of cold air.
Mid‑Atlantic & Appalachians
The Appalachians may face a very harsh winter, with below‑normal
temperatures and heavy snowfall, during mid‑January and February.
The region could see an active nor’easter winter, especially
later in winter, types of nor’easters could vary a little.
Great Lakes
Temperatures near to above normal overall, but with quick
cold snaps and fast‑moving clippers.
Lake‑effect regions off of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, will
likely see generally below average snowfall compared to the 30-year
average.
Summary
The Dominant Driver this winter will be a Very Strong El
Nino, with NOAA estimating a 69% chance of a historically strong peak in
Oct–Dec 2026. The El Nino will last through the entire Winter into next Spring
El Nino typically shifts the Pacific jet stream southward,
favoring wetter, cooler conditions in the southern U.S. and warmer, drier
conditions in the northern tier.
The weather pattern across the region is going to be active
with mixed snow, ice, and rain events, but overall, it should be a rain‑leaning
winter in the Northeast. But Northeasters (especially Miller A and Miller D)
will be an issue especially for the last half of winter. I do think winter
2026-2027 will feature at least a few nor’easter’s (maybe a lot) again especially
during the 2nd part of winter. These could result in big snow events for some.
With the very strong El Nino and the negative PDO; the combination
of the two should mean that while northern Pennsylvania, New York State and New
England will see generally warmer than average temperatures. The PDO should mute
the impact of El Nino leading to temperatures being cooler than they would be
if we were dealing with a positive PDO. This might surprise some forecasters
That’s it for part one, part two will likely be released end
of October or first part of November. If you liked what you read, or thought it
was interesting, please let others know about or share the link.
