Tranquil today but it won’t last!

 Surface Chart, Radar and Satellite

 

Today

The cold front has pushed south of the region, and we have high pressure overhead keeping things very tranquil. The cold front has pushed south of the region.  Temperatures will be generally where they should be for this time of year. But we’re going to have a strong storm system move through the Great Lakes bringing big chances for tomorrow

As a cold front approaches this evening. Those in western New York State will see rain move in after sunset.

 

The rest of the week.

The rain looks to move into western Pennsylvania tomorrow morning. As the potent cold front continues to advance west to east widespread rain will advance with it. The rain will continue through the afternoon and into Friday night. scattered and last into the evening. Ahead of the powerful cold front, southwest winds will provide milder temperatures into Saturday.  During Friday winds will be very windy and gusty, 20-30 mph with gust as high as 40-50 mph. We’re likely to see a line develop, bring very heavy rain and some thunderstorms.  Some of these storms could become strong to severe producing the chance for damaging winds, especially south of the eastern Mohawk Valley. The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk for severe storms across Southeast New York State, most of Pennsylvania along with Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey. The SPC has upgraded a large part of eastern Pennsylvania into northwest New Jersey and eastern Maryland to a Slight Risk. As I said, the biggest threat will be damaging straight line winds, but a brief tornado or two will be possible, especially for those in the Delaware River Valley down into the Delmarva.  General rainfall totals across the region look to be 0.25 - 1.5 inches.

The cold front is going to drag in much colder air behind it.  Temperatures will be plummeting Friday night and Saturday.  That influx of fridged Canadian air will support a transition to wet snow across the higher elevations and mountains Friday night into Saturday morning.  Lower Elevations will see snow mixing in with a dusting to an inch, while the higher elevations of the Tug Hill, Adirondacks, Green and White Mountains see generally an inch to perhaps three inches. While the highest peaks seeing a chance for a bit more than that. The elevations below 1500 feet could end up with a a coating, the lower elevations and valley locations could see flakes, but no accumulation is expected.  Saturday is going to be very blustery with temperatures plunging during the day. Most of the precipitation will be over, but a couple of lingering showers will be possible for the first part of the day. High pressure will be building in, providing clearing skies. Saturday night is going to be very cold, with the clear skies and diminishing winds it will likely mark the end of the growing season for the vast majority of the region. Sunday will start out cold, but temperatures are going to recover a bit and winds will be lighter.

For the first part of next week, high pressure will be in control, allowing lots of sun with temperatures becoming closer to average. Overall, it will be a nice stretch of fall weather.