Patty has formed, just not where I expected.

Subtropical Storm Patty has formed in the Northern Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is showing, Patty has sustained winds of 50 mph, min central pressure of 986mb, she is tracking ESE at 7 mph. about 400 miles west/northwest of the Azores.

Subtropical storms share the characteristics of both a tropical cyclone and an extratropical cyclone. Subtropical storms are typically larger than their tropical counterparts, with the stronger winds farther away from the center. A Subtropical storm has a much colder core when compared to a tropical storm. Winds must be continuously blowing at 39 miles an hour up to 73 miles an hour.

 To learn more about this, here is a post I did a few years ago.

Conditions are favorable for now, as she heads toward the Azores. But conditions will become hostile late Sunday into Monday.  She should become post-tropical by Monday. As she heads toward Portugal and Spain next week.

The Caribbean

A broad area of low pressure called a Central American Gyre (CAG) is slowly developing over the southwest Caribbean. It could become Invest 97L at any time.  This part of the Caribbean has favorable conditions, Conditions are generally favorable for development over the region, with sea surface temperatures of 84°F to 85°F, a moist atmosphere, with moderate wind shear of 10-20 knots. This supports the idea there is a very high likelihood, that a tropical system will form in this region over the next 24 - 48 hours.

The NHC has the 2-day and 7-day development odds at 60% and 80%, respectively.

A strong ridge of high pressure over Florida, is likely to initially steer this northward toward Jamaica, Then the steering winds should push this northwest and then west toward the Yucatan and Gulf of Mexico (GOM).  The conditions in the GOM will be much less favorable for sustainably with high wind shear and cooler SST. This is going to bring lots of rain and wind to Jamaica and western Cuba. The chances this will be an issue for the U.S. Coast is low. But those on the coast will want to keep an eye on this regardless.  

The next name on the list is Rafael.

The Southwest Atlantic

This area still has development odds of 10%. Any development is rather unlikely, but this will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the Islands in the Northeast Caribbean as well as the southeast Bahamas.  This should eventually be absorbed by the tropical system that will be in the Caribbean.