Friday, November 1, 2024

Welcome to November!

 Today’s Northeast weather discussion…

 Yesterday we saw record heat, today not so much!




The surface chart shows the cold front moving through with the rain over New England and approaching the Middle Atlantic Coast.  Winds will be a strong and very gusty along and ahead of the front, with winds of 20-30 mph, with higher gust possible.  Rain will end west to east by early afternoon.

This weekend is going to be dry with seasonal temperatures, as high pressure moves in overhead.

Monday will see high pressure start to exit the region, as a warm front approaches. A southwest flow will develop allowing for temperatures to warm up for Tuesday, scattered to isolated rain showers will accompany the front. A cold front will move through Tuesday night, Wednesday into Thursday. With the cold front things cool off again.

High pressure moves in for Friday and next weekend with cool and dry conditions.


Tropics…



The Central American Gyre (GAG), has moved into the Caribbean. As a result, the NHC has the 2-day and 7-day development odds at 30% and 70% in the southwest Caribbean.  With favorable conditions we should see a tropical depression develop over the weekend into next week.  There is a decent chance this becomes a named system sometime next week. How it tracks will depend on the location of high pressure to it’s north.  So, this looks to head toward the Yucatan. It could lift northward into the Gulf of Mexico.

We do have two other areas to watch, one is near Puerto Rico, this area of disturbed weather has 2-day/7-day odds of 10%. As this drifts westward, it could become absorbed by the larger system in the Caribbean. The other system is in the open north Atlantic west of the Azores. The odds of this becoming something subtropical are at a 2-day/7-day 10%.

If the system in the southwest Caribbean gets into the GOM 2nd half of next week, high wind shear over the northern and western GOM is likely to be an issue. So the odds of this approaching the US Coast is slim to none.

The next names on the list are Patty and Rafael.




   

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