Sunday’s post for the week

 A large part of the Northeast has seen their first measurable snowfall for this season.

The northwest flow is bringing chilly air into the region. We have a lake rain/snow band on the southeast side of Lake Ontario, bringing snow to the hills south Syracuse and Mohawk Valley. This is going to generally stay here for the remainder of the day, before dissipating this evening. We also have a lake effect rain band coming off of Lake Erie. The radar shows scattered snow showers over northern Maine, with isolated snow/mix showers over New York State into Vermont and New Hampshire.  The rest of the region is mainly dry.

Monday and Tuesday will see temperatures warming, Monday looks to be dry, with rain moving into the region Monday evening and Tuesday ahead of a cold front. With the warmer temperatures this will be primarily a rain event, but the higher elevations of the Adirondacks, Greens and Whites could see some mixing.

Lake Effect snow will be falling across the Tug Hill into the Adirondacks for Tuesday night and Wednesday, the rest of the region shouldn’t be too bad

The Thanksgiving storm:

We have a disturbance off the Northwest Coast, this will move into the Rockies Tuesday and Wednesday, then end up working across the U.S.

The timing is looking for this to be faster than it was looking last week. So, this will have big implications for Thanksgiving travel and impacts.

The track is still in question,

If the track is across Virginia and the Middle Atlantic then out to sea, other than some mountain snow across northern New York State and northern New England. The rest of the region sees little to none.

 If the track is across Pennsylvania into New England, it brings accumulating snow for the northern tier of Pennsylvania, New York State and northern New England. The snow would track north and east from early morning Thursday for western Pennsylvania and New York State then into New England during the afternoon into evening.

Winds will likely pose an issue for the parades flying large balloons on Thanksgiving.  

A look at the longer range.

We have snow pack building across western Canada. This is important as it helps cold air transport that comes down from the north. The pattern will stay active. With high latitude blocking near Greenland and a lot of ridging over the Gulf of Alaska.  

The pattern setting up, allows for cold air near and around the Pole, to get pushed south into the Plains and East Coast. With a lot of overall troughing in the Midwest and East Coast.

Here’s a look at the Euro and GFS showing the 500mb height anomalies

Here is the GFS thoughts on the overall pattern.  The Euro is looking similar. 

So, the end of November and December will likely be overall cold, with the pattern staying active there will likely be snowstorm chances.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center 14 day outlook does support this idea.