The calm before a big change.

 

Today’s Northeast weather discussion…

The surface chart and radar show, a warm front approaching from the Ohio Valley along with a couple of troughs hanging around, with isolated snow/mix showers up over Maine.

Today will be dry with warming temperatures

Dry weather is in store across the region on today as high pressure temporarily builds in. But a system will move into Canada, dragging a cold front through the region, the front will bring rain showers, this evening into tomorrow. Rain could be locally heavy at times. Temperatures will be quite mild, so this should be a rain event, but I can’t rule out a bit of mix in the highest elevations.  As the system pulls away, lake effect rain/snow bands will set up downwind of Lake Ontario, this will likely bring some accumulating snow to places like the Tug Hill for late Tuesday afternoon and through Wednesday. Everyone else should see generally dry conditions for the busy pre-Thanksgiving travel day.  

Wednesday night and Thanksgiving,

We will have the potential for a snowstorm. The Euro is showing the potential for heavy accumulating snow for northwest and northern Pennsylvania, across a large part of New York State and northern into central New England. With those in the coastal plain, southern New York State and southern New England (including the Catskills and the Poconos), across the I-95 along with southeastern and southern Pennsylvania into the northern Middle Atlantic seeing a cold rain. Lingering snow and rain will be around for Friday into Saturday. The American GFS and some other models are showing the storm tracking farther south, this would bring the chance for accumulating snow for central and northeastern Pennsylvania into Southeast New York State, the Catskills and Poconos could see accumulating snow. This would allow for the Middle Atlantic and southern New England seeing rain/mix. The northern half of the region under this scenario, would stay mostly dry.   

I'm leaning toward the Euro, but we will have to see on things trend.

Winds will have to be watched for those cities flying balloons on Thanksgiving Day. Right now, winds across New York City and Philadelphia are looking to be below the can’t fly threshold.

Much colder air will be coming in behind the storm, northwest winds could bring significant lake snow to areas downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

The pattern will turn much colder, starting this weekend and looking to last for at least the first half of December