Quick look at this week, Tropics and soon to be Rafael.

 

Today is sunny and a little warmer than yesterday. We have a warm front that is approaching and will move through on Monday and Tuesday. There could be isolated rain showers with the frontal passage.  This will usher in a strong southern flow, that will bring well above average temperatures for the 2^nd half of Monday and Election Day Tuesday.  For Tuesday night and Wednesday a moisture starved weak cold front will pass through bringing a chance for a few rain showers, but most should stay mostly to all dry. Out ahead of the front temperatures will still be very mild. Behind the front high pressure will build back in, meaning temperatures will cool slightly, but they should still be slightly above average for Thursday and Friday.

Tropics…

Subtropical Storm Patty, did pass over the Azores and is now pulling away.  Right now, she is heading east at 16 mph, with max sustained winds of 45 mph, and a central pressure of 992mb. She will become post tropical by tonight.

Invest 97L

The NHC has the 2-day and 7-day development odds at 80% and 90%. I expect I-97L will become Rafael sometime tomorrow.

Tomorrow afternoon he will be approaching Jamaica, with winds picking up. Conditions will go downhill and the worst of it will be during the evening/night.  Then Tuesday it will be moving toward the Yucatan Channel and should be approaching the Cayman Islands, and Cuba late Tuesday and Tuesday evening/night.

The conditions in the western and central Caribbean are quite favorable for development. Wind shear is low and SST are very warm with a lot of deep-water heat content, atmospheric moisture is fairly robust. So, the likelihood of a strong tropical storm or possibly a hurricane is fairly high.

8-12 inches of rain will lead to flooding and mudslides to this part of the Caribbean.  Tropical Storm Force winds with gust to hurricane force will be possible for Jamaica, Cayman Islands, and western into central Cuba.

It remains to be seen how much the land interaction and the chance for some dry air will impact the circulation of I-97L. Once past Cuba, he will come close to the Keys.

By Thursday it should be in the Gulf.  The windshear will start to increase over the Yucatan Channel, and looks to become hostile over the GOM, water temperatures in the GOM have been cooling the last 7-10 days.

  Once in the GOM, we will have a front dropping out of the Central U.S. High pressure to it’s north and east. This steering pattern would suggest a track toward the Central GOM or the Yucatan. But, a track more generally toward the Florida Peninsula is possible. The conditions in the GOM are such that he should weaken fairly quickly as he heads over the Gulf. But everyone should keep an eye on him.

We do have that disturbance near Hispaniola. The development odds are a low 20%. The chance this will become a tropical depression is low, but it will be a big rainmaker for the northeast Caribbean. It is still a good possibility this will become absorbed by the circulation of I-97L in a couple of days. 

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