11/03/2025

A reminder that yesterday, I posted my last post for the winter outlook for 2025/2026. So if you haven't read it, you can do so!

Cool and showerly today with an unsettled week ahead!

Here is a look at the current surface chart and latest radar image.

We have a frontal system sitting off the coast producing scattered rain showers across the middle Atlantic Into southern new England. The steadiest rain is off the coast. The surface chart also shows a cold front approaching out of the Great Lakes and Midwest. The rain ahead of the cold front will move through today. Both of these systems are interacting just enough to produce scattered showers. Rainfall accumulations be fairly light Maybe 0.10 to maybe 0.25 of an inch.  These rain showers will likely be moving across central New York state and into central Pennsylvania this afternoon, Then approach Western New England late this afternoon into this evening. Higher elevation snow showers will also be possible. But most accumulations should be a slushy inch  or less. These scattered rain showers should be approaching and moving across eastern New England late this evening into tonight. The northern middle Atlantic Looks to stay in between these systems And so Rainfall is looking unlikely. Winds will be picking up ahead of the approaching cold front, with winds becoming gusty especially in the higher elevations.

Downwind of lake Erie and lake Ontario as the cool air drifts in over the relatively warm waters for tonight we could see some lake effect rain showers develop. These lake effect rain showers look to taper off by Tuesday morning. again accumulations should be rather light.  Any lingering rain/snow showers across the region should be out of here by early Tuesday morning. The trailing system coming in out of the Great Lakes will eventually catch up to the coastal system as it pulls away into the Canadian Maritimes, Where it will become a bigger deal. So Tuesday into Wednesday will continue to stay breezy.

Tuesday into Wednesday high pressure approaching and moving across the region. Conditions look to stay mainly dry but cloudy. It won't be hanging around for very long, Exiting ahead of a fast moving  Clipper System that will be moving through Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.  As the cold front approaches and moves through we will see winds increase and rain showers develop across the region. Right now I don't think the rain is going to be overly heavy. Then for Tuesday night into Wednesday we will see higher elevation snow showers develop with some accumulations likely. This will especially be true in the higher peaks of the Adirondacks, Greens and Whites. The rain showers and elevational snow showers will likely continue For Wednesday into Thursday morning. Again the higher elevations across the region Will see a chance for some generally light snowfall accumulations. Some lake effect snow will likely be falling down wind of lakes Erie and Ontario. Then conditions will improve going through Thursday, as high pressure moves in overhead keeping things dry but very chilly.

The pattern will remain active as a area of low pressure with a couple of shortwave troughs approaches and moves through for later Friday and Saturday. The rain/snow showers associated with this look to be scattered. Then on Sunday another low pressure area with a cold front will be approaching and moving through during Sunday and Monday. The rain showers with this look to be more widespread than the ones earlier this week. Behind this system we are going to see very cold air move into the region. The cold air could change some of that rain over to snow. Places like the Catskills and Poconos could see some accumulating snow This could also be true for the higher elevations in northwest New Jersey.  Generally accumulations in these areas should be a slushy inch or less. But accumulations in the Adirondacks Greens and Whites, and maybe even the Berkshires could be higher with at least a few inches possible. The accumulating snow across northern New York State into northern New England could get down close to or even into the lower elevations. The snowbelts leeward of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario could end up seeing more in the way of lake effect snow than they have been seeing out of these systems.

All of this talk about snow shouldn't be a huge surprise as I have been talking about the pattern and all of this for quite some time! 

Have a great Monday!