12/03/2025

A very quick post for the next 5-7 days. 

Surface chart and regional radar.

The nor'easter That brought widespread impacts is now up over the Canadian maritimes. The storm has intensified quickly And it is bombing out. Earlier today I posted a write up on bombogenesis. So those who don't know what it is or wanna refresher. You can check it out.  High pressure that is overhead is sliding east ahead of our next approaching system.

Today is very chilly and as we can see on the visible satellite there is a mix of sun and clouds over the region.

Looking at the infrared satellite We can see the fast moving pattern With one system in the northern stream moving into the Great Lakes. And another system to the west That will be impacting our weather for Friday. 

The arctic cold front That is going to come through tonight and tomorrow. Is going to usher in very cold air. The air temperatures over northern New York state and northern new England are going to be in the negative digits. With single digits into the teens over the interior, with teens into the 20s for the larger cities and along the coast. This will be the coldest year we've seen since last winter. Winds of 10-25 mph are going to be very gusty with gust of 30-45 mph, allowing a wind chill to make it feel even much colder! Tonight The leading add to this Will be moving over Lakes Erie and Ontario. This will allow lake effect to develop with a general 1-4  inches with 3-8 inches under the most intense parts of the band. Some of this lake snow could make it into the Catskills and poconos as well as parts of new England. The arctic front will come through tomorrow bringing a couple bouts of snow showers and snow squalls. These squalls could drop a quick inch or two of snow. With those who see the snow squalls ending up with a total of 2-4 inches. These squalls could make driving very difficult as they will quickly lower visibility to near zero at times.

We're going to have high pressure move in and sit over us for Friday during part of the day. But it should start sliding east during the afternoon. The western disturbance in the southern sub tropical jet stream over the Four Corners; is going to head towards the Tennessee river valley, A long a stalled frontal boundary. Then we're going to see more low pressure develop along this boundary and then track towards the Middle Atlantic for Friday afternoon and Friday evening, as it weakens.  Who sees accumulating snow will depend on how strong This area low pressure Is. The models are in rough agreement But the European ECMWF (euro) shows a slightly stronger system than the American GFS. With the GFS also a little further south with the system. Based on how things look to me right now, For central southern Pennsylvania and southeast Pennsylvania. Including the Philadelphia metro, central New Jersey, New York City and Long Island into southern Connecticut,, And maybe for the southern half of the Cape into the off-shore islands.  There could be a trace to an inch, with a chance for a few localized areas seen as much as two inches of snow. South and east of this will likely be just a rain mix or plain rain.

Saturday this system will be pulling away. With a chance for some lingering snow showers. But there will be a northern component tracking across Canada that could bring snow showers and some flurries to northern New York State and to northern New England, later in the afternoon into Saturday evening. This could bring some accumulating snow. Especially downwind of lake Ontario.  For everyone else It should be fairly dry.

Sunday a weak shortwave trough will be moving across the region. Most won't see much if any precipitation out of it. But it will again likely kick off lake effect snow downwind of lake Erie and lake Ontario.

Then for Tuesday through the rest of the week We are going to see a series of clipper like systems move through. Bringing the chance for snow showers and bouts of lake effect setting up downwind of the Great Lakes.