Over the next few weeks we look to see ridging over the middle of the United States pushing possibly into Canada. This would set the stage for some troughing for the Northwest US into California and troughing into the Northeast US and Middle Atlantic region. We have seen plumes of moisture (Atmospheric River) coming across the North Pacific into the Northwest United States and Southwest Canada. I think we're going to see more of these atmospheric rivers coming off the Pacific. With the pattern remaining very active in the northern jet stream, We're going to be dealing with waves of fast moving frontal systems, moving across southern Canada and the northern United States. This is going to create a cornucopia of different weather types across the northern tier of the United States.
While over the next couple of weeks a large part of the US is gonna become mild, for the Northeast US it will be a bit different It will be a bit different. While we're going to have shots of warmth We're also going to be seeing cold outbreaks as well. For our region I think overall we're gonna end up overall on the cooler side of things than not.
The CPC is showing the Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic somewhat cooler over the next 2 to 4 week. I just think it's going to be cooler than CPC is thinking.
I've been talking about the time around Christmas and a possible storm around that time.
GFS is a little faster than the EURO. The GFS shows a possible storm impacting parts of our region on Christmas day. Whereas the EURO has a storm impacting parts of the region Christmas night into the day after Christmas.
Based on what's going on It's starting to look like Christmas Eve will be cold and dry. Also there's a chance for some snow, mix, rain later Christmas Day. The timing looks to be changing enough that a storm is possible. for the day after Christmas.
There is a chance for some kind of ice event for Pennsylvania Into the northern Middle Atlantic. With snow more likely across parts of New York State into northern and central New England.
So we could see a storm from the 24th through the 26th. It's going to come down to timing.
We just went through one of the reversals...after all that prolonged cold and snow from November to now, all of a sudden it was 50 degrees, raining, blowing like a tempest, and the freaking power went out for a day! But almost all of the snow washed away. We'll be left by morning with icy sheets from the flash-freeze, to be followed by up/down, wet/dry, for what looks like weeks to come. This is what I would call a schizophrenic winter. We get them now and then. Every single season is different, here at 1200-1300 ft., south-central Vermont, in the saddle between northern and southern Green Mountain ranges.
ReplyDeleteAlan
ReplyDeleteHow can canCHRISTmas Eve be cold and dry but there could be a storm from the 24th through the 26th.Ok ,I've been dying to ask this,you keep using the word trough,I was sure that was the opposite of a ridge.I have never seen you use the word as much as you have lately and someone usually gets some snow out of one of these,we don’t but I do not see any change in our weather.3 days of 40+ and 58 today.Much of the weather people are now saying that we had our cold shot,it was earlier but temperatures will now be normal to a little above normal and that the cold from the Polar Vortex is back well to the North.Too many cooks in this kitchen.
ReplyDeleteThat is based on what the models differences are showing and variables in timing. As far as cold. January does look to be trending colder But as I said in previous post to this one. I would hear calls that winter is over. Which it's not! So thank you for that! I can't answer to what other outlets are saying. I don't know where they are getting their information or their data from. I don't know what emphasis to playing on any of the data you're seeing all I know is what I'm seeing and what I'm saying ..
ReplyDelete