Hurricane season is about to start in the Atlantic.

 

Tropical Write UP

The Atlantic Hurricane season is quickly approaching and is just a little more than two weeks away. With the Atlantic Season officially beginning on June 1st. But yesterday marked the release of the first official tropical outlook from the National Hurricane Center. They will be issuing a 2-day outlook. and a 7-day outlook everyday through the season.

Image curtesy of Tropical Tidbits

We are watching a few tropical waves out over the Atlantic as well as some coming off the West Coast of Africa.  The lead tropical Wave has just entered the Caribbean. On average the Atlantic Basin sees Between 50 and 70 tropical waves a season. Some of these will turn into named systems and some won’t. 

Image curtesy of NOAA

Here’s a chart I made that shows how the number of named systems averages out per month, based on the 30-year average.

The Sea Surface Temperatures in the Main Development Region (MDR), Caribbean and Gulf of America…Yes, I know it used to be the Gulf of Mexico, but the NHC is calling it the Gulf of America, So I’m calling it the Gulf of America, that way, no confusion in what I’m talking about. 

Image curtesy of Tropical Tidbits

Temperatures in the western tropical Atlantic and much of the Caribbean are running on average 80° F-82° F, while in the far western Caribbean into the Southern Gulf they are running 82° F - 84° F on average. While it’s very rare to get named systems this time of year, these waters are warm enough to support tropical development, if other conditions line up perfectly. 

Image curtesy of NOAA

But sometimes May can see something develop. So, we always have to keep an eye on things, at this time in the preseason into June, this is where we typically watch for storms that could develop.

Here is a look at the NHC 7-day outlook for today, for the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America; it’s showing there are no immediate concerns in the Atlantic Basin.

 

 

Image curtesy of Tropical Tidbits

I’ve been talking about El Nino and how it might impact our Summer; in several post, including y 2026 Hurricane Outlook, which you can find here. If you’ve seen them then you know what El Nino could do. But there are mixed signals involving Atlantic water temperatures that are complicating the setup a bit. At this point in the year, we have above-average warm water temperatures in the Gulf, Caribbean, and western Atlantic. At the same time, we have below-average water temperatures in the central and eastern Tropical Atlantic. It remains to be seen how this will impact the early hurricane season as we move forward.

That’s it for today, have a great weekend!