What about the first half of Summer?

 

I’m thinking of making changes to the way I report the near-term forecast. Due to the lack of views, I’m considering not posting so often on the weekly outlook. Based on the few views they get, I can only assume most of y’all don’t want them. But my seasonal and longer-term outlooks fare much better with many more views.  So, any feedback y’all what to give, would be great, as I do these post for all y’all.

This post is going to touch on El Nino and global SSTs along with the idea if of what the pattern is showing for the first half of Summer.

 This week is looking to continue this persistent overall coolish temperature profile.

 El Nino

 

Image Credit Coral Reef Watch.

 Probabilistic strength forecast

NOAA is getting increasingly bullish on the idea of a very strong El Nino

The Climate Prediction Center has us in an El Nino watch with SSTs in the equatorial Pacific at average to above average levels. Its sill looks very likely that they will soon declare an official El Nina in June or maybe July.

El Nino is highly likely to develop soon, with an 82% chance during May–July 2026. The CPC has a 96% chance it continues through winter 2026–27

Remember El Nino is characterized by a positive Relative Oleanonic Nino Index (RONI) greater than or equal to +0.5ºC. while La Nina: characterized by a negative RONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC.

Also, it’s important to remember that to be classified as a full-fledged El Nino or La Nina episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons. The CPC considers El Nino or La Nina conditions to occur when the monthly relative Nino 3.4 departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5ºC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months.

 

Image Credit CPC

Looking at the current conditions in the four Nino zones. We can see that El Nino thresholds have been reached.

 

Image Credit WeatherBell Analytics

The westerly trade winds have increased in the eastern and central Pacific; this is another favorable El Nino signal. As they push the warm water due to the recent La Nina back to the east.

 

We can see that warm SST anomalies dominate the central/eastern Pacific. While cooler SST anomalies persist in the western Pacific.

 

Image Credit CPC

This is all showing upper‑ocean heat content is above average and is consistent with early El Nino development.

 

Image Credit CPC

Positive subsurface temperature anomalies have strengthened in the east‑central and eastern Pacific.

Cyclonicwx

 

Images Credit Cyclonicwx

We can see those subsurface temperature anomalies are quickly heading for the surface, once they do, El Nino is going to take off like a racehorse.

Alex Boreham has a great site, if you like that kind of info, check it out!

 

Pacific SST Analysis

 

Image Credit Coral Reef Watch.

A large part of the Pacific is seeing above average SST.

This winter could see the subtropical jet become very active. If that is the case, there could be an increased risk for Coastal/Nor’easter type storms, making things more interesting for sure!

 

Atlantic SST Analysis

 

Image Credit Tropical Tidbits 

The Atlantic basin is warm with the Gulf, northern Caribbean, and western Atlantic seeing slightly to above average temperatures, the eastern tropical Atlantic into southern Caribbean is cooler than average closer to Africa, but that is going to continue to warm as we move through hurricane season.  This is why, my 2026 hurricane outlook is calling for average to above average activity this season, in spite of it being an El Nino year.

Link to my HurricaneOutlook.

 A sidebar

NOAA’s National Weather Service release their 2026 hurricane outlook a few days ago. They are predicting a below-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic basin

The agency is forecasting a total of 8-14 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 3-6 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1-3 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges. An average season has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

NOAA’s and most of the other outlooks are showing a slightly less active season than I’m showing.

 

MJO

 

The MJO is looking to head into Phase 8 and Phase 1. This means we will likely see ridging develop over the Great Lakes as well as off the Eastern Seaboard. This is going to help us stay a bit coolish for the foreseeable future

The pattern

 

We’ve seen a very persistent Pattern during the entire Spring. This pattern looks to be extending into the Summer.

So, far this year we’ve seen a lot of ridging over the western U.S., with stubborn troughing over the eastern U.S.

 

The Bermuda High has been expanding west.  We’ve also had the western flow moving over and under that western ridge due to several shortwave troughs coming off the Pacific. This has resulted in all the rain and severe weather in parts of the Plains and Midwest.

 

June and July

Link to my SummerOutlook

In my Summer Outlook I said, this Spring into the Summer is likely to be overall cool. So far that is been the case. So far, I see nothing that is changing my thoughts. Here is what the EURO weekly is showing for June into July.  

 The next 7 days

 

Over the next couple of weeks

 

 

End of June into July

 

Images Credit WeatherBell Analytics

The model is supporting the idea that I’ve been talking about for the last few months.

That doesn’t mean we’re not going to see warm to hot days. It just means that overall temperatures will favor the cooler side. This will be based on the 30 year temperature anomalies for this time of year.

Conclusion

The Pacific is transitioning from ENSO‑neutral and quickly toward El Nino, with strong supporting signals in SSTs, subsurface heat profiles, and atmospheric patterns.

There is very high confidence that El Nino will dominate the 2026–27 winter, with potential for a strong event.

U.S. seasonal patterns are already showing early atmospheric shifts consistent with this transition.

Have a great rest of your Sunday