It's going to be a great Halloween!

 

Here’s a look at the current development of the Sudden Stratospheric Warming event. 

This is going to disrupt the PV. We have a lot of moisture that is going to be injected into the Southwest and Plains over the next few days, as a disturbance brings pacific moisture into the southwest at the same time a cutoff low will be working south from the Pacific Northwest down into California.  

 

 

Right now, most of the CONUS is very warm, the warm temperatures stretch from Texas right up through Maine. We will have a cold front that will drop through the region, but temperatures won’t crash behind it, and we’re going to stay fairly mild for late October standards right through the Halloween weekend. 

 Yesterday I talked about the PV bulging ahead of a likely split, with a piece of that split ending up over Southeast Canada. We can see all of that in these images.

 I’ve circled the two areas that will split in white.

 

When we get out to around Nov 5^th to 6^th, there is a very decent PV disruption. The problem is going to be in spite the historic nature of this SSW, there really isn’t a lot of cold air to be pulled down into the CONUS.

Here’s a look at the Euro thoughts on the temperature pattern over the CONUS from today into next Friday. 

So, in spite of the huge PV displacement, there really isn’t any arctic cold locked up in Northwest Canada and Alaska that can be pulled south. 

As far as rain, after whatever rain we see tonight into Friday morning, the weekend through Wednesday is looking to stay generally dry, then more clouds will build in with some rain showers returning for Thursday and Friday.

I still think the end of November into December is going to cold and stormy.