The 2024 and 2025 Northeast Winter Outlook Part Two

 Well December is going to be here in a few weeks

So far 2024 has been one of the, if not the warmest years on record.

For the last few years I’ve been releasing the winter outlook in three parts, but for this year, I’m only going to do two parts.

Link to part one.

 

Getting into the outlook:

 

The Outlook will generally focus on the end of November into the first part of March.

The last several winters have seen well above average temperatures and below to well below average snowfall. The question is, will this winter break that trend?

As far as snowfall, it will cover first flake to last flake.

 

Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs):

 

Image Credit Tropical Tidbits 

Looking at the chart we can see the Equatorial Pacific SST anomalies are below average, between the Dateline and the South America coast. This is showing that an La Niña is trying to form. But currently the ENSO is still considered neutral.

It’s important to point out that the SSTs across the Northern Hemisphere are well above average. This is especially true for the northwest Pacific. We can also see are also above average. There are spots where there are below average SSTs, particularly in the South Pacific.

 

What’s going on in the Pacific:

I talked about the developing La Nina in part one. But the La Nina is taking longer than I thought it would, but rest assured it will make impacts on winter 2024-2025.

As I said above, we can see the La Nina signature in the eastern into central Pacific.

Once the La Nina is declared it still looks to be a weak to maybe a moderate central Pacific La Nina (modoki)

La Nina Modoki events are very rare, even rarer than El Nino Modoki. We had a La Nina Modoki in 1989. The winter of 2010-2011 was another La Nina Modoki.

Weak and strong La Nina’s produce less snow in and around the Middle Atlantic Region, with the Middle Atlantic Region seeing more snow on average during moderate La Nina's’

Now if the La Nina becomes more central to west based; it would increase the odds of a strong sustained ridge over the eastern CONUS. If this does occur, we could see the AO and NAO stay more in the way of positive over winter 2024-2025.

If this does become a La Nina Modoki, it would tend to have the storm track a little farther north than when we see an east based La Nina.  This would setup the Northern Mid-Atlantic region as the battle zone. This would mean the Northern Mid Atlantic and those close to it, would see a roller coaster of temperatures fluctuations that could vary from week to week. This could have large implications as to precipitation types during the winter.

 

An interesting fact is that during La Nina years, December tends to become very active

 

Image Credit Climate Prediction Center / NCEP

 

Image Credit Climate Prediction Center / NCEP

 

The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) is based on SST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO.

La Nina is characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC in Nino region 3.4.

The JMA model is showing a stronger signal for a moderate La Nina than the others are.

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)

The SOI is an index used to indicate the development and intensity of El Nino or La Nina events. This is calculated using the pressure differences between Darwin and Tahiti. These pressure differences effect the strength of the Pacific equatorial trade winds.  Negative values favor El Nino, while positive values favor La Nina.

 

Here are the SOI Values from November 10, 2024   

During the summer SOI values showed El Nino as trying to hold on. The monthly SOI value for July 2024 was minus 5.83, very close to the El Nino benchmark. The 30-day running average of the SOI dipped to minus 17.1 on Aug. 3 a strong El Nino signal. And the daily SOI value Aug. 5 was a neutral reading at plus 3.09.  September saw the SOI turn more negative. October showed a shift toward La Nina. Since then, the SOI has been wavering a bit. Currently it’s at 4.31.

 

The IRI plume is predicting a weak and a short duration La Nina, as indicated by the Nino-3.4.

 

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

 

The PDO is one of the major weather drivers for our overall weather patterns. Looking at the SST anomalies, all y’all can see the cool water off of coastal Alaska.  This is showing that Currently the PDO is negative. The PDO has decadal variability negative values were generally observed from around 2000 to the early 2010s, and positive values were generally observed in the late 2010s, the PDO has been negative since around 2020.

 

The PDO is made up of the Kuroshio Current near the Philippines; this moves through the northwestern Pacific Ocean bringing warm water near Alaska and the West Coast.

This sets up a pattern for strong troughing over the Western US and a ridge in the Eastern US. Historically one of the biggest factors for cold and snow in the Northeast is warm water in the northeast Pacific. When we look at the SST Warm northern Pacific with cooler water along the West Coast from the Gulf of Alaska and down the Coast of California. This is looking to be a strongly negative PDO. So, the PDO is showing a warm signal for the eastern U.S.

 Solar

The Solar cycle is generally looking to be at its peak, as is evidenced by all the spectacular Northern Lights displays over the last few months.

When we’re in solar minimums we tend to see much more high latitude blocking than during solar maximums.

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO)

The QBO is a band of winds in the upper atmosphere near the equator. The winds generally change direction every year and a half.

The QBO is westerly, meaning it’s positive.

Positive QBO winter can see more high latitude blocking on average.  

Some of our snowiest winters have been during a positive QBO

There is a correlation between solar activity and the QBO, when were near maximum and the QBO is westerly, the polar vortex is more likely to be stronger, keeping the cold air more in the way of being lock up in the arctic.

 

The Indian Ocean:

 

Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits

The cooler water in the Eastern and southern Indian Ocean are going to play a factor in the upcoming Winter season.  Generally, the places where there are colder SST is where there will be sinking air.  The water temperatures in the Indian Ocean are a part of the MJO. That warmer water northwest of Australia will increase the odds for more convection (storms) in the western Pacific closer to the Dateline. This will affect the ridge trough pattern moving forward. This does increase the odd that the SOI will likely stay in the positive numbers for a big part of winter 2024-2025.

 

Other teleconnections and the Atlantic:

The Atlantic

 

Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits

 

AMO

The AMO is an ongoing series of long-duration changes in the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean, with cool and warm phases that may last for 20-50 years. The Warm phase is positive. with the cool phase being negative.  

The AMO is positive

This is very apparent when we look at the SST anomalies in the Northern Atlantic.

 When the AMO is in its positive phase and the sea surface temperatures are warmer,  studies have shown that the main effect in winter is to promote the negative phase of the NAO which leads to "blocking" episodes over the North Atlantic sector, allowing cold weather systems to exist over the eastern US and Europe.

 

Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)

The MJO is a tropical disturbance that transfers wind, precipitation, and pressure changes eastward around the Earth every 30-60 days.

Currently the MJO is in phase one.  From here the MJO is going to quickly move into the center null circle, where it will weaken. When it MJO is tracking through the null no phase is favored.  Phase one favors troughing in western North America and ridging in eastern North America. So, for the rest of November the MJO won’t exert a lot of influence on the overall U.S pattern.

Once it leaves the null during December, it looks like the MJO will rotate into favorable phases as we approach mid-December, so mid to the end of December could be quite cold.

 

Artic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation

 

The AO and NAO are used to try and track high latitude blocking. The AO refers to opposing atmospheric pressure patterns in the middle and high latitudes. A positive AO means the surface pressure is low over the arctic. A positive AO helps keep the mid latitude jet strong enough to keep most of the arctic air locked to our north.  When the AO is negative, there tends to be high pressure over the arctic. As I said above, high pressure in this part of the arctic is called high latitude blocking. It tends to weaken the zonal flow, resulting in greater occurrences of arctic air intrusions into the Northeast CONUS.

 

AO

 

NAO

A negative NAO generally isn’t about pulling cold air down from the north, instead what it does do is lock those colder temperatures in.  The NAO helps enhance what is going on in the Pacific Basin.  Overall, a negative NAO sets up high latitude blocking near Canada and Greenland, which slows down storms, allowing them to become stronger. It also helps promote a stormier pattern here in the Northeast.

Some years see the AO index not bounce around so much; when it stays persistently negative during October the AO is generally more negative during the winter season. During this October the AO and NAO have been going back and forth. When they act like this it sends a mixed signal when it comes to cold outbreaks and high latitude blocking for this winter.

Northern Hemisphere Snowpack:

Snow cover is in white

 from 30 September to 22 October

 

 Graphics courtesy NOAA/NOHRSC

 

Snow cover is in white

Here is a current look at snow cover

 

 Graphics courtesy NOAA/NOHRSC

Judah Cohen has done research that correlates this to below average temperatures over the eastern US and above average snowfall over the Northeast into Mid-Atlantic Region. If the snow pack below 60◦ North is above average and expanding during October into November, there is an increased risk for high latitude blocking the following winter. Right now, snow cover in that part of Eurasia is higher than in many recent years…. So, it’s a good sign for snow lovers. 

During October the Eurasia snow cover extent across Eurasia grew quickly. But when we got closer to the end of October snow growth slowed way down. Now the snow extent is lower than average for this time of year.  The black dashed line represents the mean value using October 2009 through 2023.

The snow extent has increased across Alaska and northwestern Canada. Right now, the snow extent is sending mixed signals as far as winter cold goes. But as it continues to grow, it will be a source of colder air, that could get tapped into from time to time, bringing colder air masses into the northern Plains, Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes. Some of that cold air could expand across the Northeast at times.

When the snow extent is greater across Eurasia (especially across Siberia) in October it is a sign that the polar vortex (PV) is likely to be weaker on average, which could signal higher odds of cold air outbreaks in the eastern U.S.

 

Analogues:

For the analogues I came up with, I used a combination of weak La Ninas, and some La Nina years that followed a El Nino. I also included tropical years that had tracks like we saw this year.

 Tropical seasons

Tropical seasons in the Atlantic that see late season activity tend to start off cooler in the eastern U.S. When we look back at similar seasons, we generally saw two predominate corridors one in the western into central Atlantic. The 2^nd had several tropical cyclones tracking through the Gulf into the Southeast US activity tend to see colder first halves of winter.  

Hurricane analogues

1950, 1985 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2020, 2022

Many of these were snowy and colder overall.

Winter 2022 -2023 wasn’t a great winter in spite of 2022’s   Hurricane Ian

2022 saw an early shot of cold air, but it didn’t stick around and most of the rest of the winter was warmer than average.

Both 1995 and 2010 were decent winters.

La Nina’s that followed El Nino’s

1966-1967, 2005-2006, 2007-2008, 2013-2014, and 2020-2021

These winters we’re generally warmer with above average temperatures across the Northeast into Middle Atlantic region.

A winter that was similar had a western QBO and was at a solar max.

1980-1981.

So I will have to factor this in as well, into my overall thinking process.

The years I’ve settled on

1985,1986, 1995-1996, 2005-2006, 2007-2008, 2010-2011. 2013-2014, 2016-2017, and 2022-2023; along with keeping 1980-1981 as something that could occur.

When dealing with analogues, any one of them can show up during the winter.

When we average out these analogue years, we see this general look.

Temperature.

 

Image Credit Physical Sciences Laboratory NOAA/NCEI 

Precipitation 

Image Credit Physical Sciences Laboratory NOAA/NCEI 

The winter temperature and precipitation pattern:

When looking at all the factors, my general thoughts on the temperature and precipitation pattern this winter are still looking sound.

La Nina generally pushes the polar jet stream farther north and causes chillier conditions in the north central U.S, Great Lakes, and Northeast.

I have a lower confidence level in the overall pattern this winter. So I’m sticking to the general zones I established in Part one. December could end cold, this general idea of cold could stick around for at a large part of January. But I do feel winter could start to wind down by the end of February.

Wintertime temperatures will end up varying greatly north to south during the winter. Wintertime Precipitation will tend to be a bit snowier across northern parts of the region, while southern parts of the region will be dealing with greater chances for mix and rain events.

Here is the zone map

 

 

Zone one…

Those of y’all in zone one, will see overall slightly below average temperatures during December. January into February could be cold. As far as general precipitation it should end up being wetter than average. With the cooler temperatures snowfall should end up slightly above average to above average as well.

Lake Effect Snow

The Great Lakes are near or at record water temperatures.

These water temperatures will increase the odds for significant lake snow events during the first part of the winter. So, the typical snowbelts should end up with overall above average to well above average snowfall for the season.

This doesn’t mean there won’t be warm periods. As I said above, this winter is going to end up being highly variable.

Zone two…

This zone looks to see overall near average temperatures, along with average general precipitation. There will be an issue with mix events during the winter. As far as snowfall that looks to be overall average to slightly above average.

Zone three…

This zone looks to see overall average temperatures to slightly above average, along with average general precipitation. There will be an issue with mix events during the winter. So, expect to see many events start out as a mix then switch over to snow, or starting out as snow and changing to a mix. But there will be a chance for pure snow events.  As far as snowfall that looks to be overall average to slightly below average.

Storms will end up being very hit and miss.

 Zone four…

This zone looks to see overall Temperatures above average with precipitation near average.  Snowfall accumulations will be below to well below average, when everything is said and done. Unless a storm tracks just right, I don’t except to see much in the way of snow. some of your storms will be a mix. But generally, many of them could be all-rain events. It is possible some places in zone four, won’t see any snow this winter.

 

Summing it up:

A couple of wild cards this winter will be, the MJO and the Polar Vortex.

The teleconnections are at odds with each other, with a lot of arguing going on! But the general idea is teleconnections point to the warm side of things on average.

MJO is going to be fighting with the other teleconnections. With the mixed teleconnection signals, the PV is another wild card.  

Could see some very cool weather toward the end of November. December could start out cold and be quite active and wintery. From Mid December to beginning of January it could get warm before it gets quite cold, if things set up right. January should continue to be active; depending on the storm track, we could end up with quite a bit of snow in many parts of the region.

For the entire winter, the pattern is going to go back and forth between cold and warmth. 

What ends up happening will depend on week-to-week variability between the MJO and teleconnections like the AO and NAO.

Overall, the warmth should outdo the cold on average.

February could see the return of a colder pattern. Februarys can be snowy, this February will depend on the several factors, so snowfall could go either way. Winter could start to winddown during the end of February into early March.

Winter of 21-22 could show up, which would mean a better chance for a snowier winter overall.

As I said in part one, in the Northeast most of our snowier winters ended up occurring during weak to slightly moderate La Nina's’ The Middle Atlantic on the other hand tend to see less snow.

There is a lot of uncertainty for this winter, with the overall pattern featuring a lot of back and forth.

So northern parts of the region should see some cold and snow, while the Middle Atlantic and I-95 look to see a warmer winter and maybe little in the way of snow. Most of it will come down to how the MJO tracks through its phases and on how the AO and NAO behave.

 

Well, that’s it for this year’s winter outlook.

I want to take time to thank you for reading my thoughts on winter 2024-2025.  If you have questions not covered in this outlook, or general questions about the upcoming winter please don’t be afraid to ask.

The 2023 - 2024 Winter Outlook Part Three.

 

The days and nights are getting colder, most of us have had our killing frost, and some of us have had our first snow of the early season.  So, with the 2023-2024 winter right around the corner, the thought “what is this winter going to be like?” is growing more and more common across the region.  So that means it’s time for my Winter Outlook for the Northeast and Middle Atlantic.  Many of y’all look forward to what could be instore, where I combine a bit of science with pinch of conjecture and a spoonful of past patterns that were similar, and try to come up with the general weather patterns for the coming winter season, trying to show the overall temperature possibilities along with potential snowfall in store for the region.

The last few winters have been lackluster to say the least, many snow lovers would likely say they have been complete disasters. The Northeast has many businesses and communities that rely on winter snowfall for economic wellbeing.  With the idea of a strong El Nino that will impact this upcoming winter, many winter lovers are feeling very antsy.  

Parts one and two laid the groundwork for part three. Part three will go into the El Nino a little bit more, along with some of the different ENSO indexes. I will cover on how the snow extent and ice coverage have been progressing. I will also talk about the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, or QBO. Lastly, I will try to go into the temperature, precipitation, snowfall amounts, and the storm tracks we could see

If you don't want to read the technical stuff, you can skip to the bottom.

Link to part one

Link to part two

 Sea Surface Temperature anomalies:

 

Above is the latest surface analysis of the global oceans. We can see the marked warm anomalies of the El Nino event in the equatorial Pacific, reaching over 4 degrees Celsius.  The well above average water anomalies also stands out across the Atlantic Basin.

The image below, show SST anomalies in the ENSO region of the equatorial Pacific over the last two years. The blue box shows the La Nina last year and how ocean temperatures quickly warmed to become our current El Nino event. The red box shows the forecasted peak values this El Nino could achieve over the Winter 2023/2024.

 

El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO):

ENSO is the most important coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon to cause global climate variability. During El Nino, we typically have a very active subtropical jet stream and an amplified polar jet stream. With the extended and amplified subtropical jet with many areas of low pressure moving along it. The southern U.S. typically sees, several storms with lots of precipitation and cooler weather. This general pattern can lead to frequent strong Gulf and East Coast Storms.

You can see exactly that in the jet stream anomaly forecast below for January 2024. It shows the typical strong subtropical jet stream over the southern United States (red).

 

NOAA bases the phase of ENSO by and large on the Oceanic Nino index (ONI).

The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Nino 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO.

Below is an image showing the Nino Regions across the equatorial Pacific

 

El Nino: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC.

La Nina: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC.

By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Nino or La Nina episode,

these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping

3-month seasons.

CPC considers El Nino or La Nina conditions to occur when the monthly Nino3.4 OISST

departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5ºC along with consistent atmospheric features. These

anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months.

The IRI multi-model image below show the consensus that El Nino will peak around +2 degrees above normal. That is considered a strong event. But the forecasts also agree that the El Nino will start to dissolve somewhere towards Summer 2024.

 

Based on the ONI, we’re in a strong El Nino right now, with SST anomalies in Nino 3.4 being 1.8°C above average. We will likely see this peak around 2.0°C, before it levels off and then drops back toward a moderate El Nino for the 2^nd half of winter.  I don’t think this El Nino will end up as strong as the Super El Nino of 2015 to 2016.

On the Facebook weather pages and in past blog post, I’ve talked about ENSO indexes, such as the SST anomalies like the ONI and Southern Oscillation Index. The ENSO is the biggest climate driver on the planet, for this reason over the years several ways have come up to measure it.  Besides the SST indexes and SOI, there is the wind index, outgoing longwave radiation index, and the multivariate ENSO index. Each of these Indexes have strong points and limitations.

I want to focus on the multivariate ENSO index (MEI).

The MEI, is a method used to characterize the intensity of an ENSO event. Given that ENSO arises from a complex interaction of a variety of climate systems, MEI is regarded as the most comprehensive index for monitoring ENSO since it combines analysis of oceanic and atmospheric variables.

 While NOAA is showing we’re in a strong El Nino, looking at the MEI images below, we can see it’s showing more in the way of a weak to moderate El Nino. Since sometimes we see more cold and snowy conditions during weak to moderate El Nino’s than we typically do during strong El Nino’s.

 

The way the atmosphere is responding to El Nino, is supporting what the MEI is showing.

 In part one and two, I talked about the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).  As I’ve said, The ENSO isn’t the only deciding teleconnection, as other factors have to also be factored in.

Here in the Northeast, the actual correlation from the impact of El Nino is very weak, when compared to many other places. So, it’s very problematic to say El Nino will produce this or that kind of impact here in the Northeast.  So, while the El Nino could likely override the other contributing factors in other parts of the U.S. Here in the Northeast El Nino, might not rule the roost.  For the Northeast our snowfall potential is often driven by the NAO, AO, and other teleconnections including the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). In the previous parts I went into NAO, AO and the PDO. The factors I laid out are still valid. But I do what to talk a bit on the QBO.

 Quasi-Biennial Oscillation:

The QBO, is another teleconnection that is a prime driver of global climate. The QBO is winds in the stratosphere 15km to 50km over our heads. As with all teleconnections the QBO has two phases.  An easterly (negative) phase, when the winds in the stratosphere blow in an easterly direction, and a westerly (positive) phase when the stratospheric winds blow in a westerly direction.  The QBO is very predictable with the phase changes occurring about every 14 months.

The QBO influences the strength of the polar vortex. When the QBO is in a positive phase, the odds for a strong polar vortex increases. During the negative phase the chances increase for the polar vortex to be weaker, increasing the likelihood for some cold air intrusions into the U.S. When the QBO is easterly, there is a better chance for the AO and NAO to be generally negative.

Currently the QBO is negative, this will increase the odds for high latitude blocking along with a better chance for polar vortex disruptions, increasing the odds for cold air incursions during this winter.    

 Eurasian Snow Extent:

In part two, I said, Eurasian Snow cover was below average over Siberia. Since then, more snow as fallen over Siberia.  

 

I’ve placed a box on the Rutgers Snow Extent map, showing the area in Eurasia where we’re concerned with in Siberia. There is a color scale that shows how much above or below average snowfall extent is. The coral tones show where snow cover is below average; whereas, the blue tones show where snow cover is above average. Looking at the map, we can see most of that area is colored in a light shade of blue, which indicates snow extent in Eurasia is slightly above average for this time of year.

 

The Chart from 1967 to 2023 is also showing snow cover is just slightly above average.  Snow cover is indicating a slightly better chance for a colder and more in the way of snowy winter in the Northeast and Middle Atlantic.  As we saw last winter, snowfall was well below average across the region. When we look at the chart, we can see the snow extent was even lower last winter than now.  

 Sea Ice:

On the map from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, I’ve placed a red box over the Barents-Kara Sea.  The map shows the sea ice extent that is monitored for possible influences on our winter weather. We can see that well over half of the area is ice free. The Charts show Ice extent is well below average

Some meteorologist (myself included) thinks the less sea ice over the Barents-Kara Sea, the more likely the chance for the polar vortex to be weaker, increasing the likelihood for cold air intrusions into the U.S.  

 OK let’s get into the Maps and Idea’s I have for the 2023-2024 winter.

 Temperature Outlook for Winter 2023-24:

Even though El Nino’s impact here in the Northeast is a bit tricky, it does produce general impacts. In general, we expect temperatures to run milder than average in moderate to strong El Nino winters.

 

Based on the data I've shown, this isn't likely to be a downright frigid winter. But we will see cold air outbreaks that extend southward out of Canada from time to time.

Eastern Canada is going to end up with overall below average temperatures -1°F to -3°F. So sometimes we will see cold air outbreaks into the Northeast depending on the timing we could end up with a few major nor’easters.

Around the Great Lakes and far Northern New York State and Northern New England temperatures look to be overall above average

From Pittsburgh up through the Finger Lakes, Central New York State, Northern Hudson Valley, Northern Vermont and Northern New Hampshire into Central Maine, temperatures look to be slightly above average.

For Central Pennsylvania, Central Hudson Valley, Central New England, and Southern Maine will end up with overall average temperatures, +1°F to -1°F for the winter. Southern Maryland, Delaware, and southern New Jersey will end up below average -2°F to -3°F. With the Southeast being well below average temperatures -3°F to -4°F

The upper Great Lakes look to be +2°F to +3°F above average.

 Storm Track Analysis for Winter 2023-24:

The southern subtropical jet is going to stay very active, with a lot of Pacific Moisture moving along it.

There will be frigid air north of the polar Jet

We will have disturbances moving along a fairly active polar Jet. The northern Jet is going to be bouncing around a bit.

The highly amplified and extended subtropical Jet, will support moisture across the southern U.S. The low pressure that will move across the southern U.S. Bringing snowfall across the Southeast. Some of these storms will move up the East Coast, increasing the odds for snowfall across the Middle Atlantic and perhaps Southern New England.

The polar jet is going to be to be just north of the Northeast. Given the pattern that is looking to setup, there is increased chances for sudden stratospheric warming events, that will lead to disruptions in the polar vortex, increasing the odds for cold air intrusions into the Northeast and Middle Atlantic. Given proper timing, there will be snowfall opportunities, especially from Mid-Winter into March.

The image below shows the general pressure pattern during past El Nino events. It shows low pressure over the North Pacific, strong high pressure over Canada and lesser high pressure over the North Atlantic near Greenland. It also shows the low-pressure storm track over the southern U.S. 

  

The pattern will support several snowfall opportunities for the Northeast and Middle Atlantic, we’ve already seeing several coastal storms this fall. So, Miller A and Miller B northeasters could be quite possible during this upcoming winter. While we will most likely see some lake cutters, I don’t think that will be the predominate storm track like we saw last winter.

Given those extremely warm SST in the Atlantic, if we have some cold that drops down from the Arctic, the warm SST could help support a strengthening coastal low. the greater the temperature gradient the stronger the potential of the nor'easter. Depending on the track this setup would also be capable of producing influence of a cold conveyor belt, which would help set up zones of heavier snow. Warm SST's during December can work against big snowstorms, but during the 2nd half of the winter, those warm SST can be a snow lovers’ best friend.

Precipitation Outlook for Winter 2023-24:

Rain, sleet, freezing rain, and snow

Southern and eastern Pennsylvania, Southeast New York State and the Central Hudson Valley, across central New England into southern Maine look to see of generally 10% above average precipitation While Southeast New England, New Jersey, Southeast Pennsylvania, Maryland and Delaware end up generally 20% above average.

The Great Lakes, northwest Pennsylvania and western New York State look to see slightly below average precipitation at -10%

The rest of New York State and northern Vermont, northern New Hampshire and northern Maine ending up with generally average overall precipitation.

 

 

Snowfall Outlook for Winter 2023-24:

These snowfall amounts are overall general ideas for the Northeast and Middle Atlantic for this winter. I base this on the general teleconnection pattern and what I anticipate to be the general storm tracks.

As for how much snow we should expect this winter, well, specific numbers are hard to nail down but with a weak to moderate El Nino in the picture, along with the pattern I describe above, I see support for an above average snowfall season for Southern New England, Southeast New York State (including New York City and Long Island into the Middle Atlantic, With the area around the Appalachian’s ending up as the jackpot, with good odds for well above average snowfall.

Slightly above average snowfall for most of Northern New England into Northwest Massachusetts, Hudson Valley and the Catskills, along with the Twin Tiers of New York State and Pennsylvania, back through most of Western Pennsylvania

Northern and Central New York State and the Adirondacks into Northern Vermont, looks to see near average snowfall. Northwest Pennsylvania away from Lake Erie could also see average snowfall.  

Slightly below average lake effect snows off of Lake Erie. With around average lake snow off of Lake Ontario.

 

A general look month by month:

December:

Temperatures…

Past Thanksgiving into the first week of December is looking to generally be below average, then we should see some warming, resulting in slightly above to above average temperatures up through the time around mid-month, then we look to see general temperatures become slightly below to below average for the end of December.

Overall temperatures should generally end up fairly mild with above average for the month of December.

Snowfall…

For the month I expect generally slightly below average snowfall.

 

January:

January is going to continue to see the up and down temperature roller coaster. The month could start slightly below average. Then there would be the chance for temperatures to warm back up near average to above average, before falling back to average to below average during the 2^nd half of January.

The subtropical jet, will stay active during the month. We could see many of the southern storms head out to sea; but we could see a few of these storms come up the coast. While Western Pennsylvania up through Western New York State, see generally below average snowfall, for Eastern Pennsylvania the rest of New York State into New England see generally average snowfall typically for the month of January.  

 February:

The last half of the winter, is likely going to be colder and snowier than the first half.  February as a whole should see Western parts of the region with slightly below average overall temperatures. The temperatures across Northern into Central New York State and the Northern half of New England, end up with overall temperatures near average, Southern New England, back through Southeast New York State, Eastern Pennsylvania, and the Middle Atlantic should see below average temperatures.

Based on this being an El Nino winter and climatology, February should end up a big snow month. The Southern and Northern jets should stay active. During past El Nino’s, nor’easters are common off the Coast. So, I will be very surprised if we don’t see at least a couple big coastal storms come up the coast, bringing snow across the Eastern half of Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, into New York State along with New England. As we saw during the Super El Nino of 2015-2016, Coastal storms can bring significant snowfall into the Middle Atlantic and Northeast, even during El Nino years.

As far as snowfall, Western New York State, and Western Pennsylvania should generally see slightly above average snowfall With Central into Eastern Pennsylvania and New York State seeing above average snowfall, with possibly well above average snowfall for the Middle Atlantic into Southern and perhaps Eastern New England.  

 March:

Temperatures should be overall above average in the Northeast and Middle Atlantic Region, especially during the 2^nd half of the Month.  With generally below average snowfall across Western Pennsylvania and Western New York State, with average to slightly below average snowfall over Eastern Pennsylvania, Eastern New York State, into the Middle Atlantic and New England.

 Closing thoughts:

.Remember seasonal outlooks are deterministic in nature, so with the overall idea of randomness in mind, different outcomes are always possible. Afterall the law of averages, insist that everything must level out, so these different outputs are expected.

This winter is going to see wild swings between warm and cold temperatures, So snowfall is going to depend on the overall pressure pattern and the timing of the individual storms. So, get ready for a wild ride.  Also with the temperature going back and forth, it will be more difficult to develop a deep snowpack. So while snowfall may indeed end up above average, we might not see long lasting snow banks.  

Well, that’s it

I hope you found this multipart outlook interesting and educational. As always, I can’t answer questions about the outlook from other outlets. But I will always answer all y’all’s questions in regards to my outlooks and forecast.