Long Range Outlook

 

We had a disruption in the Polar Vortex last week. This is typically the time of year when the PV breaks down, as the pattern adjust to Northern Hemisphere (NH) Spring. When we look at the height pattern over the NH, we can see high pressure and warming temperatures over the North Pole, with the colder air dispersed into the lower latitudes, again this is normal for this time of year.

 

This supports the idea of the pattern staying overall cool and active.

Other teleconnections

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is currently positive and trending towards neutral. The AO looks to stay near neutral next week. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is currently negative trending neutral. Then the NAO looks to stay near neutral over the next two weeks.

 

 

The AO and NAO are indicating we will see general ridging over the Eastern CONUS and Eastern Canada behind the storm for tomorrow. Then a trough will push in over the region for Next Week, allowing for generally below average temperatures for our neck of the woods.

Madden Julian Oscillation

Currently the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) left phase three into the center circle where no phase is favored. It looks to hang out inside the circle for the seven to 10 days, then emerge into phases six and seven. Phase six and into phase seven favors strong ridging with mild temperatures for the Eastern US.

 

All of this is supported by the CPC 8-14 day, which shows generally below average temperatures over the Northeast into the Northern Middle Atlantic over the next couple of weeks. The CPC is also showing the Northeast into Northern Middle Atlantic seeing above average precipitation over the same time period.  

 

 

SSTs/El Nino/Southern Oscillation

Looking at the equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) anomalies, we can see the SST between the Dateline and Indonesia are still below average at 0.4°C, with the other three Nino areas showing temperatures starting to go positive. This means the La Nina is rapidly waning. I expect we will be officially under neutral conditions over the next 4 weeks.

So, after the cooldown next week into the first week of April, Spring should make a big return and stick around.