March 15th, 2025.

 

The powerful storm system that brought severe weather including several tornadoes yesterday and last night has moved east into the Mississippi Valley and Deep South for today, several people have already died, and today is going to likely be worst. There is a very high likelihood for a violent tornado outbreak starting this afternoon right through tonight. 

The SPC has issued an exceptionally rare and dangerous level 5 high risk. A risk level 5 means that numerous severe storms will be likely and there is a high confidence of severe weather. All threat modes are possible, including significant tornadoes, strong and damaging wind gusts, damaging hail, and flash flooding. Stay prepared, stay weather aware. Have multiple ways of getting weather alerts. The areas at most risk will be Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, western Georgia, southern Tennessee, southern Arkansas, and the Florida Panhandle, there are likely going to be long-track violent tornadoes so everyone in these areas should stay weather aware.

 

There are five risk categories: marginal, severe, enhanced, moderate, and high.

 

What is a severe thunderstorm?

A thunderstorm is classified as severe if it meets one of the following criteria:

Winds greater than 58 mph

Hail diameter greater than an inch (quarter-sized)

Contains a tornado

If you’re under any kind of risk, there is a chance for severe weather to occur. So always prepare for the possibility of a severe thunderstorm hitting your area.

 

Today is very warm, and tomorrow will be even warmer. Winds will be increasing today, and will become very gusty tomorrow as a strong cold front approach and moves through.  The entire region is going to see widespread rain heavy at times. A general 0.50 to 1.0 inches of rain; this along with snow melt will likely lead to flooding including ice jam river flooding.

The severe weather will push east for tomorrow, but the systems dynamics shouldn’t be as potent. But that doesn’t mean there won’t be any severe weather.  Currently the SPC has a Marginal Risk for strong to severe storms across Pennsylvania. There is also a Slight Risk for severe weather over part of Maryland, including Washington DC.  There will be a couple of lines that will move through, the biggest risk will be damaging winds, but hail and isolated tornadoes will also be possible. Areas that see thunderstorms will have a greater chance of seeing 1.5 to perhaps 3 inches of rain.

St Patrick’s Day will see much cooler air move in. But the lower temperatures don’t hang around for long; as a warming trend starts on Tuesday The region will stay mild into Thursday. Wednesday we will be watching another system drop into the Plains out of the Rockies, this will likely lead to another severe weather outbreak for the Plains and south. The cold front attached to this system will roll through the region on Thursday and Friday. We will be warm enough for all rain, but then as colder air comes in behind the front, rain will change over to snow over New York State and northern and central New England. There looks to be some accumulation, especially in the higher elevations of the Tug Hill, Adirondacks, Greens and Whites.