04/30/2025

 

Welcome to the last day of April!

The current frontal chart shows the cold front pushing east currently sitting over new England back into the northern middle Atlantic Behind this we have high pressure building into the region We do have some low pressure along the front down in Texas that is going to bring them some severe weather today. 

Radar and satellite show some rain down over the cape and off-shore islands with clearing moving in from the west we do have some cloudiness coming in off the Great Lakes but for the most part today will be cool but fairly sunny. Tonight will be clear or almost clear skies, this will lead to temperatures getting very chilly for the end of April. Some parts of New York state and New England could even see some frost so keep that in mind if you have sensitive plants outside.

That system over Texas and Oklahoma will start to play a role in our weather on friday As a warm front lifts into the region ahead of this there could be some scattered showers this could set off some scattered showers and maybe a few thunderstorms

 This high pressure will be with us tomorrow morning. So we should be dry with lots of sun during much of the day. We will have low pressure moving into the Great Lakes heading into Canada Ahead of this we will have a warm front approaching our region This will allow us to warm up a bit  for tomorrow. The warm front could  bring some showers to western parts of the region including a few isolated thunderstorms tomorrow later morning into the afternoon. A couple of these could be on the strong side. The showers and possible thunderstorms will work east across New York State and Pennsylvania during the day.

For friday the warm front will continue to move across the region with the chance of showers and thunderstorms moving along with it during the day. With the frontal passage Our temperatures will once again become above average. Though in the warm sector Thunderstorms will have a greater chance of more in the way of widespread thunderstorms Some of these thunderstorms could be strong to severe. Saturday we'll see the cold front slide through the region  We will find widespread rain showers and isolated  thunderstorms. Some of these thunderstorms could be on the strong to severe side.

For Sunday Into next week things will get a little more complex as we will have low pressure coming out of the midwest that's gonna drop south and east and looks become cut off from the overall flow. We're also going to have another cutoff load developed off over the southwest US. To the north of these cut off lows we're gonna have strong ridging up over Canada. This type of pattern this called a high over low pattern, It's kind of a blocking pattern.  Our weather will depend on where these cut off lows end up setting up; if they migrate further south we would have more influence from that high pressure and have more in way of dry weather and more sun. If the cutoff low is farther north, we could come under the influence of the precipitation rotating around the low, leading to more in the way of rain for at least southern parts of the region. The farther north you are away from the center of low pressure, the less rain you will see. For now the weekend is looking to be a bit chilly and it looks like it will be unsettled with chances for showers Sunday through maybe Wednesday; but again all that will depend on where that cut off low ends up setting up. 

Many times the month of May can experience a pattern that is slow to change. If the pattern I talked about above persist the lack of strong net flow could leave the same general pattern holding on into at least the middle of May. The second part of May could become quite active with severe weather. I'm basing this on how the pattern  looks to evolve. So we will see.

 Looking more at the pattern, we do have the neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the pacific and we have those cold temperatures in the main development region of the tropical Atlantic , both of these will have a big impact on the Atlantic hurricane season. I will be posting a hurricane outlook later in May. One thing we're gonna have to watch is how the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Pacific Merdional Mode ( PMM) teleconnections end up evolving.  If they end up going negative, which means we have colder Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTS) off the West Coast up into the Gulf of Alaska. This set up would mean a general pattern of a prominent ridge in the Plains into the Midwest, which would mean a lot of heat and lack of rain there. For the East Coast, we would see more in the way of troughing, which means we could see more pronounced rain in the Southeast into the Middle Atlantic. northern parts of our region could see overall precipitation closer to average. We could also end up being cooler overall when it comes to summer temperatures across the region. I touched on all of this when I was released the summer general outlook several weeks ago. We will just have to wait and see how this impacts our summer.

 

Severe thunderstorm watch 191

 

The National Weather Service has issued a severe storm watch For western Pennsylvania and through western , central into northern New York until 10:00 PM.

The main dangers will be strong damaging winds up to 70-70 5 mph, large hail up to 1.5", as well as the risk for a few tornadoes. Stay weather aware and heed all warnings given.

MSD 605

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Mesoscale Discussion 605 < Previous MD Mesoscale Discussion 0605 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Areas affected...western PA/NY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 291841Z - 292045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and persist into the evening. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard accompanying this activity. A watch may be needed in the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...Persistent southwesterly low-level flow has allowed surface dewpoints to increase by 2-6 degrees F over the past 3 hours across much of the region, with values now in the upper 50s to low 60s F. Additionally, strong heating into the 80s has resulted in steepened low-level lapse rates. Modest instability also is overspreading the region, and a large area of cumulus is evident in visible satellite imagery. Convection is expected to develop across western NY over the next couple of hours ahead of the southeast sagging cold front. Additional development may occur into western PA. Additionally, an eastward propagating severe thunderstorm cluster over central Ohio is also expected to persist. This cluster is tracking east/northeast around 50-60 kt as should arrive at the OH/PA border by 21z. Unidirectional vertical wind profiles will continue to favor clusters/line segments. Steep low-level lapse rates and a mixed boundary layer will support damaging gusts. Modest midlevel lapse rates could support isolated hail if any more discrete cells can develop and be maintained. A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed in the next 1-2 hours for portions of the MCD area. ..Leitman/Hart.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 39957972 40048059 41688036 42048003 43187839 43477743 43597659 43597614 43457579 43147542 42757569 41277732 39957972 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home Weather Topics: Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us NOAA / National Weather Service National Centers for Environmental Prediction Storm Prediction Center 120 David L. Boren Blvd. Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A. spc.feedback@noaa.gov Page last modified: April 29, 2025 Disclaimer Information Quality Help Glossary Privacy Policy Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) About Us Career Opportunities

04/29/2025

 I've been talking about today's severe threat for several days now So by now not too many of you should be surprised.

Here is a look at the current surface chart.

Today is starting out very sunny, out ahead of an approaching frontal system, a warm front will move across the region. The southern flow today Is going to allow temperatures to warm, generally the regional temperatures look to be from the mid 70s into the mid 80s, with temperatures a bit cooler along the Coast. Many of us will be challenging record high temperatures.

Winds are going to be increasing  today winds will be increasing with gust of 40-45 miles an hour possible. The dynamics I've been talking about the last few days are going to set the stage for strong to severe thunderstorms. We could see a few thunderstorms start to pop up late morning early afternoon but the prime time for severe weather is going to be around mid afternoon into around 11PM. 

The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for severe weather across a large part of New York state into northern and western Pennsylvania They also have an Enhanced Risk for severe weather extending from central New York back down into the Ohio Valley.

We're likely going to have two major rounds Of severe weather possibilities today The first will accompany a shortwave trough that moves through during the afternoon with the hot and Moist air ahead of it this will act as a trigger to set off severe thunderstorms. The second round will come as the trailing cold front comes through the region tonight. 

We will likely see a broken blind start to develop Out of the great lakes in Ontario Canada. The edge of the cold front shows up very well on infrared satellite.  At first thunderstorms Will be spotty But they will be increasing as the approaching cold front plows into the warm humid air mass. We will likely see a solid line of thunderstorms develop.  There is also going to be the risk for a few discrete supercell thunderstorms develop. As the day goes on the storm dynamics will allow a change to  globular clusters of bowing thunderstorms, along with these could be embedded supercells. As the cold front moves west to east across the region it is going to be weakening. The lift needed for the severe storms will lessen as the  front approaches  eastern New York State and western New England , along with New York City, Long Island, Delaware, New Jersey and Maryland tonight.. This along with losing the sun and increasing amounts of dry air should greatly diminish the severe threat. But it is still possible for a few strong storms after 11PM into the overnight.

As I've been saying the major threats today will be damaging winds of 60+ mph along with the chance for moderate to large hail. But an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Along with this, there will be the threat for some localized flooding for some.

Make sure you have a have a way to stay alerted the severe weather, and as always obey all warnings from the National Weather Service.

Behind the cold front we're going to see a big cool down for Wednesday. Thursday As the high pressure starts to exit we will see a southwest flow start to increase our temperatures. It will still be a bit cool for this time of year but it will be a lot warmer than it was on Wednesday. Friday a warm front will lift into the region This will allow temperatures to warm even more. With the warm front there is a possibility for a few widely scattered showers and maybe a couple of isolated thunderstorms. A weak cold front will slide through friday night into early Saturday morning With this cold front there will be a rest for scattered  rain showers with a chance for some isolated thunderstorms. 

A second stronger cold front will come through on Saturday with an area of low pressure riding along it. This will spark scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms Some of these thunderstorms could be strong to severe. Sunday behind the departing cold front we will see high pressure start to build into the region this will provide a dry day. Monday is still looking to be dry for most of us. The high pressure will be starting to depart the region. The clouds will be increasing and there is a chance for a few rain showers over the northern middle Atlantic, but the vast majority of us should stay dry. Tuesday is looking to be a bit unsettled.

04/28/2025

We have high pressure overhead that is providing a sunny and dry day over the region. Today developing southern flow is going to provide quite mild temperatures. So get out and enjoy the weather if you can.

The surface chart and infrared satellite, show the system in the midwest That will bring them all the severe weather today and tonight.

Tonight our region will cool off but it won't be too bad. Then southern winds will increase during overnight and tomorrow, warming us up even more for tomorrow. The very warm air and increase dew point will be the catalyst for rain showers and thunderstorms. Rain could be heavy at times providing the chance For localized flooding issues in some areas.

Tomorrow late morning/afternoon into Tuesday evening New York State and Pennsylvania is going to see a cold front approach out of Ontario Canada. But the front should be weaker than it is today. We will also see a jet streak overhead that brings a lot of wind with it in the mid level, there is a chance some of this could try to mix down to the surface. There will likely be 2 rounds of thunderstorms one earlier in the day and one later in the day. Out ahead of the front in the warm sector, we will likely see  a line with discrete singular storm cells develop that could produce  large hail .  As the day goes on the threat should develop more into lines of bowing thunderstorms clusters. That increase the risk for damaging winds. There will be enough turning in the atmosphere to bring a chance for a few isolated tornadoes across the risk area.

The storm prediction center has a Slight Risk for severe weather across most of New York State into northwest New England and down through western and central Pennsylvania. They have also placed and Enhanced Risk for severe weather from central New York back down into northern and northwest Pennsylvania Back through Ohio. The best time for severe weather will be tomorrow afternoon and evening but there is a chance some of this could extend into the overnight. As the front pushes into eastern new England tomorrow night, It should be greatly weakened from what it was earlier in the day.

High pressure will be building in and the front will be pushing east Wednesday morning. Between the departing front and high pressure building in we're going to have a strong pressure gradient resulting in very breezy conditions. Behind the front we will see clearing skies west to east bringing plenty of sunshine but it will be very cool. Thursday is looking to start dry and sunny but temperature still look to be rather coolish. Rain chances will increase later in the day.

Friday a warm front will be lifting through the region bringing warming temperatures along with the chance for a few rain showers and isolated thunderstorms.  Later in the day a weak secondary cold front will come through increasing the risk for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms. Then on Saturday a second stronger cold front will move through bringing the risk for more widespread scattered  rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. For Sunday high pressure will be setting up overhead providing clear skies but temperature will be cool. For Monday, the high pressure will start to exit the region, ahead of another approaching system. 

Tuesday severe threat

 Tomorrow is shaping up to be a very significant severe weather day for the upper midwest into the midwest. To get thunderstorms you need heat, moisture and lift. A warm front lifting into that region tonight is going to supply very warm air with high dew points. That will supply the 1st  two ingredients to the risk for severe thunderstorms.  There will be a strong southwest flow that will help add lift for the storms as they try to form. In conjunction with this there will be a strong jet streak over the region This will further aid the development of severe thunderstorms. The parameters that are in place, look to be more than sufficient for a lot of twist with height of the atmosphere. This means the risk for significant long track tornadoes is very high. A cold frontal boundary will move through Nebraska, Iowa and Wisconsin;  with very warm  humid and unstable air in front of the boundary, thunderstorms with large hail damaging winds and tornadoes will move through that region late morning into Monday night.  The storm protection center (SPC) has a Moderate  4 out of 5 Risk for severe weather across that region. 

This is the kind of setup when I was storm chasing I looked for. It could be a very busy and dangerous day/night across the upper midwest into the midwest tomorrow.

As I said on Saturday The same system that's bringing the severe weather to the midwest Is going to be approaching and moving through the northeast And northern mid Atlantic on Tuesday The SPC Has raised the risk for severe weather to an enhanced level This is a 3 out of 5. Looking at the current SPC Chart we can see that the SPC has placed this Enhanced Risk level right over the same areas I mentioned on Saturday that I felt was at the highest risk for severe weather.

The risk on Tuesday Will include damaging winds moderate to large hail and a chance for isolated tornadoes. Heavy rain could lead to some localized flooding. The timing looks to be that Afternoon into the evening will have the highest risk for seeing severe thunderstorms But it could extend into Tuesday night as well. l will know more tomorrow as we get closer I just want to give you a quick update on what is going on

04/26/2024

 

  Here is a quick run-down on how this week looks to unfold.  

I want to thank those of y'all who follow my post here, You're the reason I'm continuing to post these weather outlooks and seasonal forecast here on the WX forecast blog. I appreciate you more than you possibly know. As you know, I am a degreed actual meteorologist and I do enjoy weather and all the stuff it brings about, you can call me a weather nerd as far as all of this goes. I've done extensive severe weather and tornado storm chasing including being at landfall of a few hurricanes, in the past. I've I've taken all of this knowledge and experience and tried to turn it into a Site where I can provide accurate and educational meaningful weather information for all  y'all. As many of y'all also know I have several horses that I have to maintain and take care of along with a ranch that requires work to keep it running. I also have a small business with a few clients that I run. In addition to all of this I have a son and family that requires my attention; so finding time to do this weather stuff is difficult to say the least. Again as many of you know I left Facebook due to personal reasons between me and Facebook I've explained the reasons for this and I will not go into them again;  but when I was on facebook I had 8-10,000 followers and hundreds and sometimes thousands of views on my weather post. Now that I am posting only on my blog website my views have fallen to less than 100 every day, sometimes It's only a handful of views. To make these weather post I take a couple hours each day to look over the data and the pattern and try to come up with a forecast that you can trust. But it is hard to justify the time I spend on this when I have to pull that time from other things that probably need my time more. So for this reason I really need you helping to spread the word and share my post and what I'm doing with your followers and friends and bring them over to the blog site. Your help is really needed if you want to keep these weather post I do available.

Anyway let's go back to talking about the weather.

Today has been gloomy, coolish and damp, as a system moves through the region we will run the risk for widespread showers and thunderstorms. ahead of the cold front with tapering to scattered showers behind the system. Lingering rain could last into Sunday morning. I can't completely rule out a few higher elevation snow showers across parts of New York state and northern and central new England tonight into Sunday. Sunday Will feature Tomorrow will feature clearing skies west to east but it will remain breezy and cool. Maine will likely be dealing with showers through most of tomorrow as it will take the low pressure until Sunday night to exit the Coast.

We have a system moving onto the west coast today that is going to impact our weather for Tuesday and Wednesday. This system will move out of the Rockies and into the Plains tomorrow causing rain and some severe weather. The system is going to be pulling up a lot of southern and golf moisture and warmth out ahead of it Setting the stage for bigger severe event as we Head towards Monday.

The warm unstable air mass over the Midwest and Great Lakes along with a jet streak over the same area; means, Monday is going to be a big severe weather day for the Upper Midwest and Midwest Including the possibility of significant long track tornadoes.

 For the Northeast and Middle Atlantic Monday is looking to be seasonally warm, sunny and dry. 

The severe threat for Tuesday will shift east into Northwest New England, a large part of Upstate New York down through western and central Pennsylvania, As the cold front responsible for Monday's severe outbreak to the west drops into the northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Out ahead of the system a warm front will slide through our region bringing very warm temperatures and gusty winds for Tuesday. As the trailing cold front approaches it should be weakening, but we can expect rain showers and scattered thunderstorms. Some of these storms will likely be strong to severe. How widespread the severe weather is remains to be seen.Right now those with the greatest risk of seeing any severe storms will be across central New York down into northern and northwestern Pennsylvania. The greatest time for the severe weather possibility will be Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Right now, the risk looks to be primarily for the possibility of damaging winds and hail but a few isolated tornadoes can't completely be ruled out. I will know more as we get closer. I just wanted to give you a heads-up. Some of this could continue into the predawn hours Of Wednesday. 

Right now, Wednesday is looking to be a breezy dry day with sunshine and cool temperatures. Thursday will start out sunny with temperatures becoming milder. As the day  goes on clouds will be increasing.  On Friday we'll start out dry; but a frontal system will be approaching that will bring a chance for rain and thunderstorms as the day goes on.

04/24/2025

 The high pressure anchored over the region Is bringing a gorgeous day. Temperatures are very mild and winds are light. We have that disturbance moving across southeast Canada Producing a few isolated showers over northern New York and northern New England But Vast majority of us will stay dry today. I can't rule out A few very isolated thunderstorms over northern New York and northern new England today. Air quality Pennsylvania and the mid Atlantic region Is at a moderate level. This is especially true where we  have forest fires in New Jersey That is creating some wildfire smoke across New Jersey into New York city Long island and parts of Connecticut. This will keep the air quality messed up enough that those of y'all with Asthma or other breathing conditions will want to stay indoors as much as possible.

 The surface chart does show a warm front nosing into the region This will bring even warmer temperatures tomorrow and it will feel very summer like, a cold front will be approaching from the west out ahead of the front there will be a prefrontal trough. This will bring increasing clouds and then rain and thunderstorms during the afternoon into friday night. Rain and thunderstorms, will work into western Pennsylvania and western New York late morning early afternoon working its way west to east during the day; Preaching western new England Late friday night/overnight. As the day goes on winds will be increasing with gust of 25-30 mph possible. As the actual cold front gets closer and starts to move through rain will be increasingly becoming more steady Friday night for western parts of the region. The cold front will slide across the rest of the region on Saturday rain will be widespread, steady and heavy at times, Winds will also remain very gusty.  It won't be a complete washout but it won't be a pleasant day .Behind the trough There will likely be a period of clearing, then the second round will come through with the actual cold front. How much clearing we see will be the determining factor  on how severe our chances will be for severe weather Right now The setup doesn't look to be widespread severe storms But there could be a few strong severe cells here and there. The rain will be lightning up and ending west to east, first across western parts of the region by Saturday afternoon and then ending across New England Saturday night into the overnight. 

 There could still be some rain up over Maine Sunday morning. But for most Sunday will be much cooler but dry. Winds will still be an issue so they will make the cool air feel even chillier. Monday will see high pressure remain overhead providing a nice day ,With a suddenly flow with a southern flow that will bring mild air back. This high pressure will start to exit the region on Tuesday, The southern flow will increase allowing for temperatures to become even more summer like. We will have a disturbance approaching on Tuesday there will be a chance for rain to be working south and east across the region later Tuesday and Wednesday there will be a chance for isolated thunderstorms as well. High pressure will be setting up Overhead For Wednesday night and Thursday Cooler with seasonal temperatures and dry conditions.

04/23/2025

 

A quick weather update.

Image credit tropical tidbits.

When we look at the 500 mb pattern over North America.We can see the western ridge and the building eastern ridge over the CONUS. This overall pattern is very warm for 2⁄3 of the US. but we do have an upper level low off the West Coast that will bring us big changes in our weather here in the Northeast over the weekend into next week.

The current surface chart shows high pressure dominating over the Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic. We can see that frontal boundary well to our south As well as a low pressure frontal system over the Upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes. For most of the rest of this week our region is going to be under the influence of this high pressure providing nice and tranquil springtime weather. Today it will be warm with light winds. All the rain we see well to our South is gonna stay well to our south, as that moves east and then head out to sea.

 Tomorrow and Friday are gonna be even warmer. The system up over the Great Lakes is going to push north and east tomorrow; but it will be weakening as it slips to our north. Most of our region will stay dry but northern parts of New York state and northern New England could see a few isolated rain showers out of it. That system currently off the West Coast Is going to move into the Plains. Then on friday as high pressure slides east The low pressure will be approaching our region.  The frontal  system will bring increased clouds , The leading warm front will jump up our temperatures to well above average for this time of year Then as Get into Saturday A prefrontal boundary, will move through Friday night into Saturday bringing some rain and thunderstorms west to east across the region. 

On Saturday we will have clearing skies behind the prefrontal boundary How much sun we end up seeing will be a big determining factor and how unstable things get. The cold front will move through Saturday morning Into Saturday evening, bringing widespread rain and thunderstorms. How much sun we see before the cold front moves through will be the determining factor on how big the severe threat will be. As I said yesterday, I think those are the biggest chance of seeing some severe weather Eastern New York State into western New England and down into the northern Middle Atlantic. We have time so we just have to see how everything works out. Saturday out ahead of the cold front is going to be very warm How warm places get will depend on the timing of the frontal passage.

Sunday we'll see the cold front move off the coast as high pressure builds into the region this will provide clearing skies and much cooler temperatures this high pressure is gonna stay with us through Monday keeping us dry. Tuesday the high pressure will start to slip east As a trough approaches From the west. Right now it's looking to me like the planes into the midwest could see quite a bit of severe weather for Monday into Tuesday We'll just have to see how that shakes out. But for here, we will have a chance for a few rain showers on our Tuesday. Out ahead of this trough, a fairly strong southern flow will have Temperatures become quite mild on Tuesday into Wednesday giving the air a summer light feel Then on Wednesday The cold front is going to slide into the region during the afternoon into Wednesday night, bringing more in the way of widespread rain and isolated thunderstorms.

04/22/2025

 

Here 's a look at The current surface chart.

We can see the occluded, warm front and cold fronts attached to that low pressure  in Canada, pushing east over New England, most of the rain is off the coast but there is a little bit of rain up over Maine. Behind all of this we have a mixture of sun and clouds As high pressure starts to build into the region. As the frontal system continues to push east we will see skies continue to become clearer.

This all shows up clearly on the visible and infrared satellite images. The disturbance in the south is gonna continue to push east and won't impact our weather here in the northeast, we do have a cold front out in the Plains and Upper Midwest, This is going to lift north towards the great lakes and not have much of an impact on our region.

We're gonna be under the influence of high pressure for the next few days. This will lead to a  warming trend during the entire work week. For tonight and tomorrow we should have clear skies With lighter winds and it should be dry This will make it good to go out and try to view the meteor shower and a chance to view the Northern lights. Thursday we're going to have a disturbance to our north that's going to pull a warm front into and through the region, southern winds will usher in very mild air across the region, most should stay dry,  but there is a chance for a few isolated showers, this will be especially true over northern New York into northern new England. Friday we will see the high pressure start to slide east as a low pressure frontal system approaches from the west, Friday will continue to be mild, but as the cold front approaches we will see clouds increase with the chance for a few rain showers late in the day for western parts of the region. The cold front will slide through on Saturday; we will see widespread showers and thunderstorms, some of these thunderstorms could be strong to severe. Right now it looks like the those are the greatest chance of seeing severe weather will be across eastern New York state down into the northern midland into western new England we will see how the timing of all this works out as we move closer. Behind the front Sunday will be noticeably cooler, With improving conditions, as high pressure approaches The high pressure will be overhead on Monday providing dry and sunny conditions Then on Tuesday This area high pressure starts to shift east, as another system approaches.

04/21/2025

 

Here is the 250 mb pattern over North America.

Courtesy of tropical tidbits.

When we look at the upper atmosphere over the United States We need to look at the overall jet stream pattern right now  our jet stream is actually Fairly quiet and weak. So we're gonna see more in the way of a zonal weather pattern where things flow from west to east. This should allow the current active severe weather pattern that has left several tornadoes and lots of wind damage over the last couple weeks. A lot of the severe weather Has been in the planes southeast and midwest, but Saturday there were dozens of reports of wind damage across Pennsylvania into parts of New York State.

The current jet stream pattern Should slow down the severe weather outbreaks quite a bit. 

We have an area of low pressure up over the great lakes Along with a leading warm front; followed by a trailing cold front approaching from the west that will be sliding through the region, out ahead of the front we have scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Rain could be locally heavy at times. Due to high pressure off the east coast this front is going to continue to weaken  as it pushes east, Show severe weather should be kept in check. Earlier today, there were more in the way of widespread thunderstorms across western parts of our region a few of these produce some damaging winds; There was also a tornado warning issued in western New York. The SPC did have a marginal risk for some strong severe storms over western parts of our region. Behind the front dryer air is moving into the region. show the upper atmospheric dynamics have changed and we no longer have a risk for severe storms.

During the overnight and tomorrow The cold front Will be moving through as as high pressure builds into the region, leading to slightly cooler temperatures but sunny weather. As the week goes on we will see a warming trend develop.

Thursday and Friday are going to be very warm as high pressure sets up overhead.when we get into friday another cold front will approach and then slide through Friday evening and Saturday. This will bring the chance for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Severe weather potential will depend on the timing of the frontal passage. As the cold front slides in we will see temperatures cool off For the weekend. Sunday and Monday will see high pressure move in providing dry and tranquil conditions. 

Next week The upper level pattern is going to reverse and I think we're going to see a big return of severe weather from the Plains into the East.

Tomorrow we're going to have the lyric Meteor shower .To view this Get away from city lights and find the constellation Lyra In the sky We could see 5-10 meteors per hour. We're also going to have a chance to possibly view the Northern Lights, especially over northern New York and northern New England. 

04/19/2025

 

We're under the influence of strong  high pressure off the Southeast Coast that is pumping that southeast ridge bringing us this mild weather we've been experiencing the last couple of days. Looking at the surface chart, we have Yesterday's warm front attached to low pressure in Canada has pushed north of the region. Along with this, the high pressure that was anchored over the region  has pushed east. This is allowing another cold front to approach from the west, out ahead of this front we have a southern flow with gusty winds bringing very mild temperatures along with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Some of these thunderstorms could be on the strong to severe side, with damaging winds and hail being the largest threat. The storm prediction center (SPC) has a Marginal  Risk for severe weather across most of Pennsylvania northeast New Jersey, New York State into western New England. 

This cold front extends all the way Through Texas into New Mexico. There is an area of low pressure on this front that will move north and east towards the Great Lakes tomorrow into Monday, weakening  as it gets into Canada Bing as it moves into Canada. As this cold front pushes east It is going to end up stalling tomorrow. Behind the front Winds will veer to the northwest and we will markedly cool off For Easter Sunday. An area of high pressure overhead Will ensure plenty of sunny skies. This area of high pressure will be short lived as it starts to slide east ahead of another frontal system approaching for Sunday night into Tuesday. The warm front will lift through on Monday, ahead of the front We will see increasing clouds along with a chance for isolated rain showers Winds will become more southerly allowing our temperatures to warm. The trailing cold front Will move through on Tuesday Bringing scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms Behind the front we will cool off for Wednesday As high pressure once again sets up overhead.

The high pressure will push east as a yet another cold front comes through for Thursday bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region. Then high pressure will set up overhead On Friday. Then a cold front will slide through on Saturday bringing more scattered rain showers and thunderstorms.

Looking at the medium to long range.

Last week I posted On my general thoughts on the summer pattern if you haven't read that I strongly suggest that you do.

We've been stuck in this current pattern for the last several weeks. But that is nothing new during  spring time, as we get patterns that get hung up during this time of year. We've been seeing shots of cold mixed in with a few days of warmth along with bouts of rain and thunderstorms. 

Unfortunately When looking at our overall pattern over the northern hemisphere; we see these systems continuing To rotate around. So we're going to continue to see these bowling ball low pressure systems to keep rolling through across the CONUS, keeping things active along with this stormy weather pattern. The Rockies will continue to see chances for snowstorms, The volatile pattern will also continue to bring the rest for severe weather outbreaks Including the chance for some severe tornado outbreaks as we move forward. For our region here in the northeast and northern mid Atlantic, Seesaw pattern to continue, as We continue to see these troughs and ridges continue to slide through. While the threat for Deep accumulating snow Is over; I still can't completely rule out a chance for a bit of snow in the higher elevations of the Adirondacks Greens and White mountains as we had towards May.

04/16/2024

 

The cold front is dropping through the region Leaving us with cloudy skies And scattered rain and snow showers.

As the cold front continues to drop south and east we will see clearing skies look out for windy conditions winds from the northwest at 10-20 mph with gust over 40 mph. Temperatures are running well below average for mid march.  For  tonight into tomorrow morning It will remain breezy with very chilly conditions, This will lead to the chance of patchy frost. So if you have sensitive plants outside You will have to cover them up or bring them inside.

Tomorrow morning we'll start off cool but high pressure will be approaching and moving in overhead during the day into tomorrow night, When this will be subsiding With wind gust of 5-15  mph. Temperatures will also be warming During the day. So it won't be too bad of a day tomorrow. The high pressure will start to exit to the east tomorrow night As low pressure Approaches the region. 

Friday we'll see a warm front Lift through the region allowing southwest winds to warm us up. Where is the warm front There will be a chance for a few scattered showers. As the low pressure pushes to our north A trailing cold front will approach  friday night into Saturday , Out ahead of the cold front temperatures are going to become very warm Saturday could end up being the warmest day we've seen so far this spring. As the cold front moves into this warm air mass we will see more in the way of  wide spread scattered showers  along with a chance for  a few isolated thunderstorms There is a chance a couple of these could approach strong status,  but the chance for severe weather is very low.

High pressure will be overhead for Easter Sunday Temperatures will be slightly cooler than Saturday but there will be plenty of sunshine so it won't be too bad for those doing outside Easter activities. Monday another weather system will approach With a warm front lifting through on Monday Bringing the chance for  scattered showers And warming temperatures. Monday night into Tuesday the cold front will slide through bringing a chance for scattered rain showers .

04/14/2025

 

Here is a look at this current surface chart

We can see low pressure Moving through the great lakes with an attached warm front over Pennsylvania that is moving north and east across the region. We also have a trailing cold front Over the great lakes back into the Midwest.

As the warm front lifts through we will see Temperatures warm up Along with scattered showers and thunderstorms develop first across Southwest Pennsylvania and then move across the rest of the region tonight into tomorrow morning. Some of the storms could be strong too severe Especially over Pennsylvania Into the northern mid Atlantic. The storm prediction center (SPC) has a Marginal risk For severe storms Across southwest Pennsylvania, They also have a slight Risk and a Enhanced Risk for severe weather along and south of the Mason Dixon line.

Tomorrow a cold front will swing through, it won't be a complete washout But the front will bring hit and miss  rain showers and some thunderstorms. Rain could be  moderate to perhaps  heavy at times.  The trailing secondary cold front will move through the region later in the day into Wednesday, with the front winds will become gusty with gust of 30-40 miles per hour possible, as the air cools off rain showers will change over to snow showers for elevations 1,500' and higher. For the Poconos and Catskills a dusting to an " or so of snow will be possible. The area near around the Finger Lakes Could see 3-4 inches.  For northern parts of the region A few inches of snow will be possible. The Adirondacks Greens and Whites Could see 3-6 inches of snow. Those downwind of lake Ontario on the tug hill Could see a bit more Due to lake enhancement.  Winds on Wednesday Will continue to be quite gusty.

Thursday We'll see high pressure that up overhead. Thursday night And friday a warm front Will lift through. This will allow temperatures to warm becoming seasonal for friday Into the weekend. Saturday  low pressure and a cold front will swing through bringing scattered rain showers and isolated chances for thunderstorms. Easter Sunday high pressure overhead will ensure the day should be dry with plenty of sun, So those Easter egg hunt should go off without a problem. Monday will see the high pressure starting to exit to the east. Ahead of another low pressure frontal system that will bring rain showers into the region for later Monday and Tuesday.

Lets talk about the future.

 

The last several weeks has seen a lot of fluctuation between cold and warm spells with predominantly temperatures being below average overall. Due to the amount of cold In the pattern we have seen higher elevation snow showers bring accumulating snowfall To the higher elevations. This coming week Is going to see a continuation of the same general pattern. 

Monday mid to late afternoon we're going to be watching a line of thunderstorms exiting the Ohio Valley heading towards Pennsylvania. Some of these storms could be strong to severe out ahead of the line we're going to have to watch for discrete supercell thunderstorms. These will  be capable of producing isolated tornadoes for western Pennsylvania Western Maryland. This will be a specially true for southwest Pennsylvania including Pittsburgh Into Maryland. The storm prediction center will have a slight risk For severe storms across this area. The main risk will be damaging winds and large hail But as I said I isolated tornadoes are going to be a possibility. This will move across Pennsylvania monday night into the overnight. Bringing the Jersey Shore and Delmarva Peninsula a chance for severe storms Tuesday morning. Behind all of this on Tuesday We will be seeing showers and thunderstorms moving across the region Most of these shouldn't be severe but I can't rule out a few on a strong side. Then Tuesday night Into Wednesday It's gonna cool off and there'll be a chance for some snow showers across Pennsylvania New York city into northern and central New York England There will likely be a dusting to a few inches of humiliation in the typical higher elevations Above 1,500'. Thursday into friday looks to be another big severe weather day Across the Midwest back into the southern Plains. This will move west to east Friday; It's too early to know how much severe weather Will be across Pennsylvania and northern mid Alantic. So we will have to keep an eye on how all this develops. As I said We've been under this yucky pattern For the last several weeks. But there are changes that are going to be happening as we get closer to the end of April.

Here is a look at the 500 Millibar pattern over the Northern Hemisphere. Credit pivotal weather.

We can see that the polar vortex Has broken down as it continues through it's seasonal Adjustment.

Looking at the image we can see several areas with cold pockets that are rotating around the pole. Do to this we can expect our current pattern of warm followed by cold followed by warmth is going to continue for the next 10-14 days So if you're waiting for any kind of lasting warmth this spring You are going to have to be another patient.

The climate prediction center's 6-10 day outlook does support this idea of temperatures staying generally below average here in the eastern United States. These tall ridges And deep troughs are going to continue to keep the weather variable over the next couple weeks Including the chance for severe weather Outbreaks Across the plains, Midwest and Southeast US. For us here in the Northeast and northern midland we're going to continue to see bouts of rain and higher elevational snow continue to be an issue.

As the pattern continues to evolve We are going to see changes Develop that will bring more way of lasting warmth To our region.  The CPC 8-14 day temperature outlook does support this idea of moderating temperatures as we approach the end of the month of April.

As I said a few days ago We have left the La Nina winter behind us. As we are now officially in a neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation  (ENSO). 

The International research institute (IRI) has the ENSO staying in neutral territory Through the Summer. Then potentially heading slightly back towards a La Nina Signal  as we had towards winter.  But based on what I'm seeing It could very well had the other direction heading towards a weak El Nino.

So far spring 2025 has been chilly with generally below average temperatures and it has been For at least parts of the region. Given that the neutral ENSO and other teleconnections (I've been talking about the last few weeks) are signaling not a lot of change in the overall pattern moving forward. The main driver of the spring pattern is gonna end up being Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). This will mean the pattern will be somewhat erratic and progressive.  So The MJO will have to be watched closely As we move forward. I think this idea of general coolness and wetness in the average  precipitation pattern for our region will likely continue over the summer. So while well below average temperatures and  feeling like winter at times type of pattern is generally behind us. I don't think this summer is going to be a super hot one. I think overall temperatures will be overall average to slightly below average for June through September. Likewise I think the region should generally see average to slightly above  average precipitation over the summer . So while this is good news when it comes to overall drought conditions It also means it might not be the greatest summer for some of us.

The pattern that looks to be setting up for this summer looks to favor quite a bit of heat in the central parts of the US, From Texas To the northern Plains. We all caught also could see above average temperatures in the Southeast US. This could allow for some severe weather outbreaks across the Midwest and across Pennsylvania into parts of the northern mid Atlantic. North of this area I think this summer's severe weather risk should be more on the lines of average, when compared to past summers . There could also be a heightened Derecho risk, for parts of our region; as systems move along these heat ridges. So that's something we have to keep an eye on. For those who are new to the blog a Derecho is a very fast type of thunderstorm called a Mesoscale Convective System. The bow line can last for hundreds of miles producing widespread damaging winds of at least 58 mph. They can also bring flooding rains and isolated tornadoes.

I will touch on the 2025 hurricane season. The Sea surface temperatures  (SST's) in the main development region of the Atlantic are much cooler than they were at this time last year With the idea of a neutral ENSO lasting through this summer Into at least the fall. These water temperatures and other  teleconnections signal, the Atlantic hurricane season being around average as far as the number of Tropical Cyclones. 

Based on what I see right now I think 2025 should end up seeing 13 to 16 named systems with 6 to 8 of these become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or greater, and 3 to 4 of them becoming major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or greater.

Right now I think the areas to watch the most Will be the eastern gulf, Northern Caribbean and along the in the Eastern seaboard of the US.

I will likely release a separate Atlantic hurricane outlook as we get closer to June.