04/29/2025

 I've been talking about today's severe threat for several days now So by now not too many of you should be surprised.

Here is a look at the current surface chart.

Today is starting out very sunny, out ahead of an approaching frontal system, a warm front will move across the region. The southern flow today Is going to allow temperatures to warm, generally the regional temperatures look to be from the mid 70s into the mid 80s, with temperatures a bit cooler along the Coast. Many of us will be challenging record high temperatures.

Winds are going to be increasing  today winds will be increasing with gust of 40-45 miles an hour possible. The dynamics I've been talking about the last few days are going to set the stage for strong to severe thunderstorms. We could see a few thunderstorms start to pop up late morning early afternoon but the prime time for severe weather is going to be around mid afternoon into around 11PM. 

The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for severe weather across a large part of New York state into northern and western Pennsylvania They also have an Enhanced Risk for severe weather extending from central New York back down into the Ohio Valley.

We're likely going to have two major rounds Of severe weather possibilities today The first will accompany a shortwave trough that moves through during the afternoon with the hot and Moist air ahead of it this will act as a trigger to set off severe thunderstorms. The second round will come as the trailing cold front comes through the region tonight. 

We will likely see a broken blind start to develop Out of the great lakes in Ontario Canada. The edge of the cold front shows up very well on infrared satellite.  At first thunderstorms Will be spotty But they will be increasing as the approaching cold front plows into the warm humid air mass. We will likely see a solid line of thunderstorms develop.  There is also going to be the risk for a few discrete supercell thunderstorms develop. As the day goes on the storm dynamics will allow a change to  globular clusters of bowing thunderstorms, along with these could be embedded supercells. As the cold front moves west to east across the region it is going to be weakening. The lift needed for the severe storms will lessen as the  front approaches  eastern New York State and western New England , along with New York City, Long Island, Delaware, New Jersey and Maryland tonight.. This along with losing the sun and increasing amounts of dry air should greatly diminish the severe threat. But it is still possible for a few strong storms after 11PM into the overnight.

As I've been saying the major threats today will be damaging winds of 60+ mph along with the chance for moderate to large hail. But an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Along with this, there will be the threat for some localized flooding for some.

Make sure you have a have a way to stay alerted the severe weather, and as always obey all warnings from the National Weather Service.

Behind the cold front we're going to see a big cool down for Wednesday. Thursday As the high pressure starts to exit we will see a southwest flow start to increase our temperatures. It will still be a bit cool for this time of year but it will be a lot warmer than it was on Wednesday. Friday a warm front will lift into the region This will allow temperatures to warm even more. With the warm front there is a possibility for a few widely scattered showers and maybe a couple of isolated thunderstorms. A weak cold front will slide through friday night into early Saturday morning With this cold front there will be a rest for scattered  rain showers with a chance for some isolated thunderstorms. 

A second stronger cold front will come through on Saturday with an area of low pressure riding along it. This will spark scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms Some of these thunderstorms could be strong to severe. Sunday behind the departing cold front we will see high pressure start to build into the region this will provide a dry day. Monday is still looking to be dry for most of us. The high pressure will be starting to depart the region. The clouds will be increasing and there is a chance for a few rain showers over the northern middle Atlantic, but the vast majority of us should stay dry. Tuesday is looking to be a bit unsettled.