04/28/2025

We have high pressure overhead that is providing a sunny and dry day over the region. Today developing southern flow is going to provide quite mild temperatures. So get out and enjoy the weather if you can.

The surface chart and infrared satellite, show the system in the midwest That will bring them all the severe weather today and tonight.

Tonight our region will cool off but it won't be too bad. Then southern winds will increase during overnight and tomorrow, warming us up even more for tomorrow. The very warm air and increase dew point will be the catalyst for rain showers and thunderstorms. Rain could be heavy at times providing the chance For localized flooding issues in some areas.

Tomorrow late morning/afternoon into Tuesday evening New York State and Pennsylvania is going to see a cold front approach out of Ontario Canada. But the front should be weaker than it is today. We will also see a jet streak overhead that brings a lot of wind with it in the mid level, there is a chance some of this could try to mix down to the surface. There will likely be 2 rounds of thunderstorms one earlier in the day and one later in the day. Out ahead of the front in the warm sector, we will likely see  a line with discrete singular storm cells develop that could produce  large hail .  As the day goes on the threat should develop more into lines of bowing thunderstorms clusters. That increase the risk for damaging winds. There will be enough turning in the atmosphere to bring a chance for a few isolated tornadoes across the risk area.

The storm prediction center has a Slight Risk for severe weather across most of New York State into northwest New England and down through western and central Pennsylvania. They have also placed and Enhanced Risk for severe weather from central New York back down into northern and northwest Pennsylvania Back through Ohio. The best time for severe weather will be tomorrow afternoon and evening but there is a chance some of this could extend into the overnight. As the front pushes into eastern new England tomorrow night, It should be greatly weakened from what it was earlier in the day.

High pressure will be building in and the front will be pushing east Wednesday morning. Between the departing front and high pressure building in we're going to have a strong pressure gradient resulting in very breezy conditions. Behind the front we will see clearing skies west to east bringing plenty of sunshine but it will be very cool. Thursday is looking to start dry and sunny but temperature still look to be rather coolish. Rain chances will increase later in the day.

Friday a warm front will be lifting through the region bringing warming temperatures along with the chance for a few rain showers and isolated thunderstorms.  Later in the day a weak secondary cold front will come through increasing the risk for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms. Then on Saturday a second stronger cold front will move through bringing the risk for more widespread scattered  rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. For Sunday high pressure will be setting up overhead providing clear skies but temperature will be cool. For Monday, the high pressure will start to exit the region, ahead of another approaching system.