7/22/2025

 Great weather before the heat wave.

Here's your current surface chart In radar image. 

We can see not a lot is going on with high pressure over the region But we do have a little  shortwave off the Middle Atlantic coast that could set off a a few very isolated hit and miss showers over New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware especially right along the coast. The rest of the region should be dry. Temperatures and humidity today will be very comfortable for this time of year across the region. Tonight will be another very cool one. Infrared satellite Shows Region is mainly clear but we do have a disturbance out over the Plains that will be impacting us for later in the week.

Tomorrow will be another similar weather day with a chance for a few rouge showers closer to the coast. Temperatures will climb a little bit but humidity should stay in check. Thursday as the system to our west and north approaches, Southwest winds will allow  temperatures and humidity to spike. With the hot, hazy and humid conditions many of Y'all will likely be under heat advisories. Far northern parts of the region could see a few scattered showers and thunderstorms starting Thursday evening into Thursday night. For Friday we will be under the influence of a tropical air mass once again with oppressive heat and humidity. This will be the start of another heat wave for parts of the region. Ahead of the approaching cold front Rain showers and thunderstorms will break out over northern New England, northern and western New York State into northwest Pennsylvania during the afternoon. Some of these storms will be strong to severe with the risk of damaging winds, hail, heavy rain and frequent lightning. The front will continue to slowly push south and east Friday evening and Saturday, with waves of showers and thunderstorms moving with it. Again some of these thunderstorms will be strong to severe with the chance for damaging winds Heavy rain some hail and frequent lightning. Friday and Saturday We are going to be dealing with oppressive heat and humidity. Sunday high pressure Sunday we are going to see high pressure pushing down out of Canada; this will push the cold front south of the region. The region will see temperatures and humidity a little lower. We have the chance for scattered rain showers.Monday we'll see The front still stalled to our south, Scattered showers will still be an issue especially closer to the frontal boundary. Tuesday we will see a prefrontal trough drop through the region, bringing the chance for some showers and thunderstorms. On Wednesday the following cold front will push in we will have the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region.

07/20/2025

 A quick post on today and the week ahead.

Today we're going to have that stationary boundary moving north. As the southeast ridge pushes some heat and heat and humidity into the region. Then we're going to have a cold front slice in bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Radar shows scattered Rain showers and some storms over northern New York State and northern New England

Some of these storms could be strong to severe with damaging winds, heavy downpours, hail and frequent lightning. The tornado risk is low but not zero. In the Friday post, I mentioned the risk for some severe storms on Sunday, right where the SPC has the risk area set up, so I did good.

The storm prediction center has a Slight Risk for severe storms across southern and central New England down to southeast New York State into northeast Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey. The greatest time for any severe storms will be this afternoon into the evening, 3-8 PM could get a bit wild. With the risk of heavy rain The weather prediction center does have a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall and flooding inside the Slight Risk area. 

Tonight high pressure is going to approach This will set up overhead for Monday into Thursday. The vast majority region will be dry For Monday through Thursday with only a very slight chance for a few showers here and there. Temperatures and humidity for Monday and to Thursday will be much more comfortable than they have been. Thursday ahead of an approaching frontal system we will see heat move in and humidity become oppressive. The cold front will slowly move through on Friday through Saturday. Bringing back the risk for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms will be strong too severe. The upcoming weekend is going to be hot and humid. The cold front is going to stall over the region on Sunday, with the risk for scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing, especially near and along the stalled frontal boundary. South and east of the boundary the heat and humidity will remain.

07/18/2025

 We made it to Friday!

The surface chart shows the frontal boundary is down over the virginias. We do have high pressure sitting north and east of our region.  Radar is showing the vast majority of region is dry with just a few isolated showers close to that frontal boundary to the south.

The cold front yesterday has swept out the humidity that's been plaguing our region for a while now. Today temperatures are going to be A bit below average for this time of year and the lower humidity is going to make it feel very comfortable outside maybe even a bit cold since we become accustomed to all the heat and humidity.

During the overnight into Saturday The stalled frontal boundary is going to start moving back north as a warm front we are going to see low pressure move along the front. As the front moves into  Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey, It will create some  scattered showers and possibly some thunderstorms. There could be  few rogue Strong/ severe storms over far western parts of the region.  The area of low pressure should make it off-shore Saturday afternoon allowing for clearing skies west to east. The rest of the region should be dry for Saturday, But I can't rule out the chance for some rogue showers to make it up into Long Island.

Saturday overnight a cold front will be approaching, clouds will be increasing ahead of the front. As the front drops out of the great lakes in Canada we will see a broken line of showers and some thunderstorms dropping  into northwestern and western New York State and in northern New England during the morning. The front will continue to drop east and south during the day,  the line will be making it into the I-95 corridor late in the day. There could be some severe weather for New England back down into New York State Sunday afternoon/evening.

Over the weekend the severe threat looks to be rather low, but there could be a few storms on the strong to severe side with some gusty winds and heavy rain. The weekend is not going to be a washout. All y'all will see scattered showers isolated thunderstorms so just so don't cancel any outdoor plans just keep an eye on the sky and be prepared to move indoors if something does approach your area.

Here's a look at the day 1-3 convective outlook.

Monday behind the cold front temperatures and humidity levels should be similar to what they are today. High pressure should be in the vicinity for Tuesday through Thursday keeping the region mainly dry with only a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms each day. Temperatures and humidity should stay comfortable for Tuesday. But the humidity and temperatures will start to move back up for Wednesday. Our rain chances go up for Thursday night and Friday as another cold front approaches and moves across the region. Ahead of the cold front for the end of the week temperatures and humidity are going to rebound becoming hot and humid once again.

Invest 93L is gone. The rain that was associated will continue to move north and eventually east. It's too soon to know if any of this rain will make it into our region here in the northeast So we'll keep an eye on it.

The national hurricane center isn't showing anything developing over the next 7 days. But we do have a couple areas in the Atlantic that are worth keeping an eye on just in case.

07/17/2025

 Post on the next few days drought conditions and touch on the tropics.

The surface chart shows the area of low pressure in Canada dragging that cold front approaching the region.

Out ahead of the front we have hot and humid conditions. Radar is showing scattered rain showers and thunderstorms developing over New York State into New England. These are associated with that trough sitting over New York State into Pennsylvania. The severe storms that were over Long Island have pushed east.

As the cold front gets closer another prefrontal trough will come through that will kick off some rain showers and thunderstorms. Across Pennsylvania into Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey and the I-95 corridor the showers and thunderstorms should be fairly isolated, But later in the day far southern Pennsylvania into Maryland and Delaware could see a little bit more in the way of showers and thunderstorms. But I really don't think you're going to be very wide spread. For today and to this evening up over New York State into northern and central New England closer to the area of low pressure we will see scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of the thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be strong to severe With the risk for damaging straight line winds, some small hail, heavy downpours and frequent lightning. The tornado risk is very low but not zero. The storm prediction center has a Marginal Risk For severe weather over the eastern half of New York state Pennsylvania into new England and Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey. I don't know if I agree with the Marginal Risk across much of Pennsylvania into the middle Atlantic.  the Parameters don't look like they support it. But that's the SPCS' call not mine. Those with the greatest chance of seeing any severe weather Will be up over New York State and New England where there is more lift associated with the low pressure in Canada. The risk for more in the way of widespread severe storms will be across northern New England where the SPC has a Slight Risk for severe weather.

Tomorrow high pressure moves in and the front will be sagged to our south. A northwest flow will bring in cooler temperatures and much lower humidity. 

Friday night another system will be approaching, with increasing clouds west to east. The Stall front will start to move north as a warm front. It will move into western Pennsylvania on Saturday. For places like Pittsburgh rain will probably Start mid to late morning. Western New York state a few showers move in during Saturday afternoon. This will slowly be moving across the region reaching central parts of New York State and Pennsylvania in the evening. Temperatures and humidity levels slowly increasing with the frontal passage but the vast majority of the region should stay comfortable. The trailing cold front will move into  western parts of Pennsylvania Saturday night. Temperatures and humidity will be increasing a bit ahead of the front Sunday. During the day into the evening scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will be around.

 Monday through a large part of the coming week is looking to be fairly decent. As high pressure sets up with  seasonal to slightly below average temperatures and low humidity. The region should be dry for For Monday through Wednesday.

The drought monitor.

All the rain Over the last several weeks  has the vast majority of the region drought free. With only a few areas experiencing abnormally dry conditions. There is only 1 area of moderate drought in southeast Massachusetts. With all the rain in the forecast These conditions should continue to improve.

The tropics.

Invest 93L moved across the Florida Peninsula into the Panhandle yesterday. Today it is tracking along the northern Gulf Coast

93L is in a low shear environment but it is been dealing with some dry air and it is unclear if it will emerge over open water long enough for better development odds. Right now chances of this developing into a tropical depression or storm is fairly low. Guidance suggest this could track a little further north then the current model projection. But, the national hurricane center is still giving it 2 day and 7 day development odds of 30%.

Widespread flooding will be possible across the Florida Panhandle through Louisiana where general rainfall amounts Of 5-8 " of rain with localized amounts of around 15" will be possible. This will especially be true for places in Louisiana. Southeast Texas could also end up with quite a bit of rain. Here is a look at the latest spaghetti model showing the possible tracks 93L could take.

07/16/2025

 

Here's a look at the surface chart

The stationary boundary near the Mason Dixon line is going to move north as a warm front. As it does so it's going to kick off rain showers and thunderstorms. Some of these thunderstorms will be strong to severe. The main risk will be possibility of some strong damaging winds and heavy downpours.  The storm prediction center has a Marginal Risk for severe weather over western and central Pennsylvania and western into central New York State.

As the front moves north We will notice that the heat and humidity will increase. As the storms move in later this evening into eastern Pennsylvania and eastern New York State they should be weakening as the we will be losing the sun.

Tomorrow a cold front is going to move in ahead of the front it is going to be very hot and humid. As the front moves into this air mass it will kick off scattered showers and thunderstorms Some of these thunderstorms will be strong to severe with damaging winds, heavy downpours and frequent lightning. There is also going to be the low risk for a tornado or two. The SPC does have a Marginal Risk for severe weather over New York State into Pennsylvania into the northern Middle Atlantic and New England. There is a good chance that the SPC is going to increase the risk to a slight risk, but we will see.

The cold front will be pressing east Thursday night into Friday morning. After some lingering rain Friday morning we should notice clearing skies west to east with increased sunshine, Temperatures will be seasonal and humidity will be much lower. Saturday we'll see high pressure sitting overhead providing most of us with a tranquil day and comfortable humidity. Southwest Pennsylvania could see some rain showers move in ahead of an approaching frontal system out of the Ohio Valley. Sunday will feature a warm front followed by a cold front move through the region. This will set off scattered showers and thunderstorms with the warm front and then as the cold front comes through you will see more in the way of showers and thunderstorms. A few of which will be strong too severe. How widespread the severe is will depend on how much sun we see develop between the warm front and the cold front. On Monday the cold front will be to our east, most of the region should be dry lingering rain up over Maine. As the high pressure moves in temperatures should be seasonal. Tuesday will see the high pressure remain overhead providing a nice day for the entire region. Wednesday we'll see high pressure starting to slip east ahead of an approaching frontal system

07/15/2025

 This weather pattern With the Bermuda high causing the mid Atlantic ridge that's pumping up the humidity out of the south and the active northern jet keeping systems moving  into the region that end of stalling due to the strength of that ridge in the Atlantic continues. 

The front of boundary has stalled along the coastal plain, with the prefrontal trough that led to all the rain yesterday is off the coast. We do have a cold front sitting up over Canada.

We still have a lot of humidity in the atmosphere with dew points in the Low to mid 70s South and east of the boundary and dew point in the mid to upper 60s north and west of the boundary. with dew points that high isolated to scattered showers and  some thunderstorms are possible. This will be especially true closer to the frontal boundary. Any thunderstorms that form will be slow moving and capable of very heavy rain. The flash flood risk won't be as great as it was yesterday but it is still going to be there.

Tomorrow the frontal boundary is going to be meandering around a little bit creating a risk for some showers and thunderstorms. Thursday will see that cold front approach and drop into the region, This will bring scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, a few of these could be strong to severe with the possibility of damaging winds, heavy downpours and frequent lightning. Right now the severe threat looks pretty limited. Thursday night into Friday this front is also going to stall. Friday will see the risk for scattered thunderstorms and showers along and near the frontal boundary. Those away from the boundary will have the chance for isolated rain showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday will feature the risk for isolated showers and thunderstorms as we will still be under the influence of the frontal boundary. Sunday will feature a greater chance rain showers and thunderstorms. As another front approaches and moves into the region with  a few waves of showers and thunderstorms moving along it. Some of these storms will be strong to severe again with the risk for some damaging wind gust heavy rainfall and frequent lightning due to all the humidity in the air. This front will be stalled by Monday with those along the vicinity of the frontal boundary again being at risk for isolated showers and thunderstorms. Tuesday will see this frontal boundary meandering around creating the risk for showers and thunderstorms.

The tropics

The national hurricane center has given this weak elongated area of circulation the designation Invest 93L. With development odds over the next 2 and 7 days at 40%. Wind shear and proximity to the Florida peninsula should keep this in check. But it's still going to be bringing a lot of rain to Florida.

Once 93L Makes it across the Florida peninsula things may change. Sea surface temperatures (SST) In the central and eastern Gulf of America are quite warm for this time of year.

Wind shear over the eastern into northeastern Gulf of America are lighter and more favorable for development.

Image credit university of Wisconsin - Madison

93L should enter the eastern gulf Tomorrow With the conditions that are in place gradual development is quite possible By Thursday there is a chance that this could be a tropical depression If it develops into a name storm the next name on the list is Dexter. Here is a look at the latest spaghetti model showing the possible track 93L could take.

Image credit Weather Nerds.

But regardless of the development this is once again gonna be another heavy rainmaker for the Gulf Coast. 

07/14/2025

 

Welcome to Monday.

Yesterday as the cold front approached and moved into New York state and Pennsylvania it kicked off widespread thunderstorms. Some of these were severe. Here is a look at the current surface chart showing the position of the cold front now. 

As the front continues drop south and east a prefrontal trough will set off showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, as the broken line runs into all that warm air and  humid tropical airmass. Radar is showing that some thunderstorms are already forming ahead of that trough. As it was on Sunday some of these storms will be strong too severe. The amount of wind shear is light to moderate. So I think the severe threat will be more isolated in nature. With the amount of water vapor in the air; the risk for a few microburst is there. So thunderstorms will be capable of damaging  straight line winds and heavy tropical downpours. Some of the storms could have quite a bit of lightning with them as well. The storm prediction center (SPC) has a Moderate Risk for severe weather over a large part of the region. 

Due to the slow moving nature of the storms and the high moisture content in the atmosphere there is a risk for localized flash flooding in some spots. Here is a look at the precipitable moisture content in the atmosphere. 

We can see values of 1 1⁄2 to 2 " over a large part of the region, with values over 2" around the I -95 corridor. With all this moisture in the air For those on the I-95 it will be a rough commute this evening. As the storms approach the I95 corridor,  New Jersey and Delaware this evening they should be weakening. But the storms will still be capable of very heavy downpours. General rainfall amounts of 1-3 " can be expected with some of the thunderstorms dropping 4 maybe 6" of rain.

For Tuesday New York State and much of New England should remain dry. There will be a slight chance for isolated Showers and thunderstorms over Pennsylvania into the northern Middle Atlantic, but most won't see them. The front will move offshore during the overnight where it will stall to our east and south. Midweek we will be under the influence of the trough then the frontal boundary is going to start to move back north on Wednesday as a warm front bring the chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across Pennsylvania New Jersey Maryland and Delaware. The The front will continue to advance into Thursday. For Thursday through Monday we will be under a warm and humid air mass.. We will have a series of cold fronts dropping down through the region, each day will be capable of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Where is the high moisture content in the air these storms will be capable of very heavy downpours. Some of the storms Thursday into Monday will have the chance to become strong to severe. By Tuesday the fronts should have cleared the humidity out of the region.

Tropical Atlantic

We do have a few tropical waves out over the main development region in the Atlantic But we also have quite a bit of Saharan air dust over the Atlantic as well. The dust dryer and wind shear should keep development over the Atlantic basin into the Caribbean under control But you will have to watch the areas around the Bahamas and into the Gulf of America. As this will be a hotspot due to the time of year when we have stalled frontal boundaries that extend over these regions where something can form and spin up.

We look to see low pressure form off the east coast of southern Georgia and northern Florida north of the Bahamas. This will move across the Florida peninsula into the eastern and north central Gulf of America. 

The national hurricane center has the development odd over the next 7 days at 30%. Wind shear will be a big factor for anything to develop  and  If this gets a name. Regardless of development This will become a heavy rain producer for part of Florida and the Gulf Coast.

The next name on the Atlantic hurricane list is Dexter. Right now The Atlantic hurricane season is running well ahead of average; we typically don't reach the letter  D until the Middle of august.  We've already had two impactful tropical storms on the US mainland. The first Was the heavy rain over the Texas hill country From the remnants of tropical storm Barry which led to the terrible flooding and loss of life. The second was the heavy rain over the Carolinas from tropical storm Chantal that led to record flooding. So this is the time to develop a safety plan in case your area comes under the influence of a tropical system. As we saw in Texas It doesn't take a hurricane to create a large death toll.

07/11/2025

 We made it to Friday. 

The surface chart shows the stationary front draped up over Northern New York back down through New England. With the high pressure of over the Gulf of Maine the stationary boundary is going to drop south and west as a back door cold front down into the Middle Atlantic. As the frontal boundary drops through It will lower the heat and humidity back down to seasonal levels It will also bring the risk for a few showers and thunderstorms. New York State and Pennsylvania are under that high pressure ridge. These areas Will see seasonal temperatures today, with a mix of sun and clouds There is a slight chance for a few very isolated showers Maybe a storm or two but most should stay dry. The best chance time for any rain or thunderstorms will be later this afternoon into this evening.

On Saturday a warm front will be lifting into the region This will bring A few rain showers and possibly some thunderstorms with it. The main thing we will see is the heat and humidity starting to build back into New York State and Pennsylvania. The warm front will continue to push into New England later in the day. 

Sunday will feature a cold front pressing down out of Canada and the great lakes this will bring the chance for some thunderstorms and scattered rain showers for northern and  scattered rain showers for northern and to western New York State Late morning into the afternoon. These showers and thunderstorms will be dropping into Pennsylvania in the early afternoon continuing to drop south east across western into central Pennsylvania during the afternoon into the evening. The front is going to be slowing down as it pushes south and east New England and the Middle Atlantic on Monday. As the front pushes into this hot and humid air mass It's going to set off thunderstorms.  Some of these could be strong to severe with the big danger being Strong gusty winds Frequent lightning small hail and heavy downpours. With all the moisture in the air And the slow moving nature Of the storms the risk for heavy downpours is the biggest concern with all this.

The front is going to stall out Tuesday near the coastal plain. A prefrontal trough builds in for Wednesday, keeping things a bit unsettled .Then another cold front approaches and starts to move into the region on Thursday. Ahead of the front it is going to become hot and humid with a chance for rain showers and thunderstorms. For Friday yet another cold front will slide into the region. This one has a greater chance for some severe weather.

Have a safe weekend. I will be back on Monday.

07/10/2025

 

The stalled frontal boundary has drifted north up across New York State and into New England today. The visible satellite image is showing Quite a bit of clouds south of the boundary with partly cloudy skies north and west of the boundary.

The boundary is separating The tropical air mass to the south From the continental airbase to the north

Because of that there will be a risk for isolated to widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms Some of these thunderstorms could Could be severe Strong to severe But I think the severe threat will be quite isolated. The storm prediction center has a large part of the region under a marginal risk for severe weather today. 

I think SPC might be overestimating the extent of the severe weather today But we will see. 

The frontal boundary is going to drift back down south and east And then set up once again Over southern Pennsylvania New Jersey And the rest of the northern middle Atlantic. The boundary will still be around for Saturday. With the threat for isolated To scattered thunderstorms and showers closer to the stalled frontal boundary everyone else should stay mainly dry for Saturday into Sunday. The front is going to be bouncing around quite a bit. So who sees what will depend on the position of the boundary at that time. So plan on the chance  for scattered showers at times over the weekend.

On Sunday and Monday acold front will be dropped in out of Canada and the Great Lakes and slowly move across our region Sunday will see the risk for scattered showers and thunderstorms back over western Pennsylvania northwest Pennsylvania into New York State and northern and central New England Then as we head towards Monday and into Monday the risk for scattered showers and thunderstorms will shift into southern new England back down to southeast New York State, eastern Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey. As the cold front drops to the region We will have a chance for strong severe thunderstorms The main danger from the storms will be the possibility of straight line damaging winds from downburst, maybe some hail  and there will be a greater risk of heavy downpours. For Tuesday and Wednesday we'll be under the influence of a trough hanging around the region This will bring the rain for ice this will bring a chance for isolating rain showers and maybe some thunderstorms. Then for Thursday into Friday we will have another cold front approaching and moving through.