Unsettled and active.

 A quick post on the next few days.

 Surface chart and radar.

 

 

  

The system that produced the severe weather yesterday is now southeast of Long Island and is heading away from the region. Yesterday saw at least 4 tornadoes, the two in New York State resulted from waterspouts that moved ashore. One was in Nassau County on Long Island in west Atlantic Beach; the other was in Rockaways and Five Towns in Queens. There was also a tornado the cause a lot of damage in Dover Delaware. A tornado was reported in York County, Pennsylvania and another was also possibly spotted in Columbia, in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania.

 Other than a few lingering showers, this will pull away enough to make for dry conditions in the Middle Atlantic for the rest of the day.  For southeast New England, it should be mostly dry this afternoon, but the winds will become gusty as the low heads north and east. Behind this we have some short-lived high pressure building in. So, the region should see mostly dry weather, with lower humidity. Tonight, will be another cool one.

unsettled weekend

We have a shortwave of low pressure developing over the Carolinas, this is going to move up the coast for tomorrow. However, as the high pressure slides east, clouds will increase from south to north. Along the immediate coast there will be more in the way of rain, with showers becoming scattered to isolated the farther from the coast you get. But for many of y’all, Saturday stays dry. Then during later in the day. a frontal system will be approaching that will likely bring New York State and Pennsylvania a few scattered showers and storms later in the day, as the warm front lifts into the region. These showers will be moving west to east. Things will turn muggy behind the front.  Then on Sunday the cold front will be swinging through, bringing a better chance for showers and storms. Due to the cold air aloft, some of these storms will be strong to severe, with strong gusty winds, heavy downpours, frequent lightning and small hail. The tornado threat will be low. I do think the severe threat will be more isolated

The unsettled pattern is going to continue next week, with several short waves and troughs moving through the region. This will keep the region coolish with generally lower humidity. Next week won’t see rain all the time, there will be plenty of dry time.

 

Tropical Atlantic

It’s been a while since I posted on the tropics.

Not much going on. But we do have a couple of yellow spots the NHC is watching. The one on the right is heading east toward Portugal. The one on the left is tracking west-southwest, it will stay on this general track into the weekend, before turning northward toward Bermuda, which it is looking to miss, then turn Northeast next week. Neither of these two are going to be an issue for the US.    Both weak disturbances are at 7-day development odds of 20%.

Down in the Main Development Region and Africa.

There is a tropical wave that just came off the West Coast of Africa, with another that will be moving into the Atlantic early next week.  

The 1^st one, is going to be dealing with a lot of wind shear, and dry and dusty air all compliments of this very strong El Nino.

 So, this shouldn’t survive the hostile setup. The 2^nd one will depend on if the 1^st one can carve out an area with less dry dusty air ahead of it.  But the odds of this making the full trip into the Western Atlantic are low. If by some chance it can find a somewhat better environment, any development would be very slow. 

Speaking of El Nino, make sure you read my 3-part series on this year's Super El Nino!