The fall pattern is developing

 An impressive pattern change is taking place for upcoming week.

 The heat ridge across the U.S. that has been a constant issue for most of the lower 48 has nearly broken down. The vast majority of the CONUS is seeing a zonal pattern. As is typical of this time of year, the polar vortex is forming above the Arctic this will be with us through the winter season. As many of y’all know the Polar Vortex is broad area of circulation over the northern (and southern) hemispheres. The Polar Vortex acts as a spinning wall over the polar regions, rising from the surface into the stratosphere. The stronger the vortex the greater the chance colder air gets locked up in the arctic.  The vortex is only a small piece of this winter's puzzle. Historically, strong El Ninos has increased the likelihood of the PV weakening at times. So, if it weakens from mid-January to February, it could allow colder-than-average temperatures to drop into the mid latitudes.

Surface Chart, Radar and Satellite

 

 

Today

Today will feature on and off showers, that will be heavy at times, due to all that tropical moisture in the air.  The widespread nature of the rain, over New York State and Pennsylvania will be tapering off from west to east gradually as the afternoon progresses. With the exception of New England, most of the rain should be over by this evening. For New England rain will stick around for the evening into tonight before ending. But the Cape and offshore Islands could see lingering rain during the overnight.

The week ahead

For Monday and Tuesday, the front will stall to our south, with a frontal boundary hanging around for a few days. A couple areas of low pressure will move along this boundary keeping Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey unsettled.  Some of this could extend into the southern tier of New York State and parts of southern New England. But north of their Monday and Tuesday is looking dry. The Autumnal Equinox begins on Tuesday at 8:05 PM.

The coming work week is going to be very cool, with temperatures generally running 5-10 ° F below average for this time of year.

 Northern areas look to stay mainly dry for much of this week, but Wednesday and Thursday we look to see an upper-level low over the Middle Atlantic, there is a good chance a surface low will develop offshore and possibly form a Nor’easter by the weekend. With the strong high over eastern Canada winds will become very gusty, with gust greater than 30 mph possible.  The SST are quite warm, so this could try to develop into a subtropical disturbance.

 

The Atlantic

Tropical Storm Fay was named early this morning. Making her the 6^th named storm of the 2026 season. Fay is going to meander around the open northern Atlantic and looks to not be a threat to any landmass. Fay has maximum sustained winds of 60 mph, min central pressure of 1004 mb, moving northeast at 3 mph. She is going to track southeast tomorrow, heading into hostile conditions for development, so her lifespan will only be a few days. The conditions ahead should keep her from becoming the season’s first hurricane, but stranger things have happened.