Tuesday severe threat

 Tomorrow is shaping up to be a very significant severe weather day for the upper midwest into the midwest. To get thunderstorms you need heat, moisture and lift. A warm front lifting into that region tonight is going to supply very warm air with high dew points. That will supply the 1st  two ingredients to the risk for severe thunderstorms.  There will be a strong southwest flow that will help add lift for the storms as they try to form. In conjunction with this there will be a strong jet streak over the region This will further aid the development of severe thunderstorms. The parameters that are in place, look to be more than sufficient for a lot of twist with height of the atmosphere. This means the risk for significant long track tornadoes is very high. A cold frontal boundary will move through Nebraska, Iowa and Wisconsin;  with very warm  humid and unstable air in front of the boundary, thunderstorms with large hail damaging winds and tornadoes will move through that region late morning into Monday night.  The storm protection center (SPC) has a Moderate  4 out of 5 Risk for severe weather across that region. 

This is the kind of setup when I was storm chasing I looked for. It could be a very busy and dangerous day/night across the upper midwest into the midwest tomorrow.

As I said on Saturday The same system that's bringing the severe weather to the midwest Is going to be approaching and moving through the northeast And northern mid Atlantic on Tuesday The SPC Has raised the risk for severe weather to an enhanced level This is a 3 out of 5. Looking at the current SPC Chart we can see that the SPC has placed this Enhanced Risk level right over the same areas I mentioned on Saturday that I felt was at the highest risk for severe weather.

The risk on Tuesday Will include damaging winds moderate to large hail and a chance for isolated tornadoes. Heavy rain could lead to some localized flooding. The timing looks to be that Afternoon into the evening will have the highest risk for seeing severe thunderstorms But it could extend into Tuesday night as well. l will know more tomorrow as we get closer I just want to give you a quick update on what is going on