05/23/2025

 The Memorial Day weekend is going to be unsettled and cool But we will see things gradually dry out and get better as we head over the next couple of days.

Looking at the surface chart we can see the coastal nor'easter that is weakening as it heads into the gulf of Maine. Attached to this we have an occluded front extending over Pennsylvania and New York. We can also see to the west that dissipating upper level low system Over the lower great lakes. This is going to continue to gradually weaken and dissipate; as the upper level low thats gonna be sitting  between Maine and the Canadian Maritimes develops and takes over. The radar shows that the rain shield is starting to diminish; As all of this continues to evolve. 

As the upper level low near the Canadian maritimes takes over we're going to see several short wave troughs rotate around it, bringing a chance for some rain showers through the region over this weekend into Memorial day Monday. As this is going on a northwest flow is going to continue to keep the cool weather over the region. The combination Of these short waves and the cool  in the Mid levels of the atmosphere Is what is going to keep us unsettled.

Today is going to continue to see the scattered rain showers across the region; the closer you get to new England the more of these scattered rain showers y'all are going to see. winds s are still gonna continue to be a bit gusty, this will especially be true over New England, winds will still be fairly strong over the coastal plain. Tomorrow things will continue to slowly improve west to east as rain coverage over interior areas of the region become more scattered. Again the closer y'all are to the upper level feature the chances for rain increase. Sunday will see this gradual improvement in the pattern continue as rain becomes even more scattered. For memorial day Monday rain will still be around but it will be fairly isolated. So while the weekend won't see It's not gonna be the perfect beach weather As long as you keep an eye on the sky, cookouts especially for Sunday and Monday should be OK.

By Tuesday high pressure will finally set up overhead with lots of sun and  mild temperatures. On Wednesday we're going to see an area of developing low pressure to our south and east push a warm front towards our region. Our chances for rain showers will increase with the passage of the warm front. Behind the warm front temperatures are going to warm even more. We will become under the influence of this low pressure on Thursday; this will increase the chance rain showers and maybe a few isolated thunderstorms, Thursday is also looking to be very mild. On friday a cold front is going to swing through. This is going to bring widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms to the region, some of these thunderstorms are gonna be strong too severe.

Yesterday I touched on the evolving pattern and how it's going to influence our summer here in Northeast and Middle Atlantic. I made the first summer post several weeks ago. Long-term forecasting during the summer is much more difficult than it is during the winter. So things have to be much more vague and general when it comes to the overall pattern. So we can only watch the trends in the teleconnections I mentioned yesterday and what they might be projecting. This summer Is going to depend on the placement of the ridge in The midwest Into the east coast it's also going to depend on the placement of the western Atlantic ridge and Bermuda high. During summer the northern polar jet does pull north, it impacts the Storm track and allow milder southern air to surge north. With the sea surface temperatures along the east coast being as they are, I do think we're gonna see an influence from general high pressure to the north and weakness over the Southeast United States. All of this is also factored into the hurricane outlook I posted several weeks ago. Without rehashing What I posted in these earlier post. While summer here in the Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic has been delayed, it is going to eventually rear its head. 

It's been hard to shake this continuing rollercoaster pattern of upper level lows becoming cut off from the overall flow and just hanging around the great lakes northeast and middle Atlantic I do think this is about to change I think you may have to go through another Of these upper level systems hanging around as we get into June. We're going to see warming temperatures next week so it's gonna feel like summer for a few days. But I don't think it's going to last. As we get into the 1st part of June; I think we're gonna see one more of these upper level features take over our local pattern, bringing cool and  wet conditions. And then after this one things finally clears out  maybe around the time we get into the middle of the second week of June; I think we're gonna set up for more of a summer like pattern, thats gonna see more in the way of overall mild temperatures that have some staying power. I do encourage you to go back and look at the post I've made for the summer pattern. As well as the hurricane outlook I posted. 

I likely won't post anything over the Memorial Day weekend; so my next post unless something drastically changes will be on Tuesday. Have a great and safe Memorial Day weekend. Also remember the true meaning of Memorial Day Is to celebrate and honor those Military and first responders; who gave the ultimate sacrifice, so we can enjoy the freedoms we have!