05/17/2025 severe weather

 This post will just cover today and talk about the severe weather threat.

A surface chart shows the warm front moving over the region With a few thunderstorms some of them severe ahead of it. Then we will see that trailing cold front come through This afternoon into tonight.

Ahead of the cold front we have a very warm and marginally humid air mass. The dynamics overhead are little different today than they looked yesterday. The strongest forcing is going to be over Eastern/ northern New York State, Vermont and in northwest Massachusetts.  The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for severe weather over this part of the region Over this part of the region, with a Marginal Risk for severe weather over much of the rest of New York State and  western New England.

As the cold front Moves into this Warmer air It is going to bring Scattered showers and Thunderstorms Some of these thunderstorms will be strong to severe. The main threat being damaging winds and some hail. The risk for tornadoes is low but not zero. Those with  the greatest chance of seeing scattered  severe storms Will be eastern and northern New York State into Vermont. Those in the Marginal Risk area could see some severe storms but they should be more in the way of isolated cells. The rest of the region should see isolated garden variety thunderstorms. The main timing for severe weather will be this afternoon into this evening. Rain will be heavy at times. If you get caught under one of these thunderstorms that drop this heavy rain, it will be capable of producing localized flooding. So remember Turn Around Don't Drown.

As is always the case Have a way to be warned, preferably with a NOAA weather radio, but there are apps that you can put on your phone that do a good job as well. As always heed all warnings given and keep an eye on the sky and stay weather aware!