Volatile week ahead!

 Welcome to the rollercoaster!

This week is going to be very unsettled right into the Easter weekend.

Current conditions

The satellite picture shows the region is dealing with mix of sun and clouds, as high pressure is in control. Radar shows A few rain showers Over Maryland Delaware New Jersey. Radar off show shows Those snow showers along that frontal boundary over Maine. The snow showers are associated with their frontal boundary To the north that is going to be bouncing around this week.

As that frontal boundary starts to drop south as a weak cold front this afternoon, It will bring a chance for for scattered rain showers with it. Temperatures will cool off slightly, Then we'll see a warm front Push back to the north.  This will allow much warmer air To move in during the overnight into tomorrow. We will also be dealing with windy conditions.

The chance for severe weather

We will see a few rounds move through tonight and  tomorrow. Tonight we will see more in the way of widespread showers rain showers along with embedded thunderstorms move into the region. These rain showers and thunderstorms will continue into Tuesday morning. Then we will see conditions Change that will allow for some dry time As well as some sunshine, Ahead of the approaching cold front.Then during the later afternoon and through the evening,  we'll see a few more rounds move through with the chance some of these storms to become strong to severe. As that warm sector air mass becomes unstable.

The storm prediction center (SPC) has upgraded and expanded the severe risk. over western parts of Pennsylvania into western New York there is a Slight Risk for severe weather, with much of New York State and northern Pennsylvania under a Marginal Risk. The main risk is going to be strong damaging winds and hail. But there will also be the risk for tornadoes. There will be a brief window of opportunity Where we will have to be watching out for the possibility of some discrete super cells Trying to develop But this. Will be short lived as we should quickly turn over to an environment that Support more in a way of lines and clusters of storms. With these storms there will be a risk For poor drainage and urban flooding as rain will be heavy at times. 

The best time for severe storms will be tomorrow afternoon into the evening.

The rest of the week

As you get later into the evening and into tomorrow night The storms will continue pushing across the region but the atmosphere will become more Stable And the severe threat should go away. So a nocturnal overnight severe threat Is unlikely, at least for now.

The cold front will continue moving across the region on Wednesday. Behind the cold front We're going to see cooler air move in Along with the chance for northern areas especially in higher elevations to see snow showers, with a few rain showers elsewhere. 

For Thursday We will be watching a quickly approaching system. We're also going to be dealing with a back door cold front dropping out of New England. Behind this front It's going to be cool. With the chance for Some rain showers and snow showers especially in those typical higher elevation areas. It is unclear how far this cold front is going to make it West and south into the region. Ahead of the front it will be warmer But there will still be a chance for scattered to isolated rain showers. Then Thursday night Into Friday The front is going to lift back north as a warm front. As the front is moving We can expect rain showers south of the boundary with a chance for some snow showers and mix along and ahead of the frontal boundary. There is going to be to risk for some accumulating ice for parts of the region. Then later Friday Into Saturday the cold front is going to drop back down through the region. Breezy conditions will return with the cold front along with the chance for rain showers and the possibility of some rumbles of thunder, as well as  higher elevation snow showers. There will be a chance for northern areas to see some snow accumulation especially in the higher elevations. The cold front looks like it's going to stall A little south of the Mason Dixon line

For Easter weekend conditions are going to continue to be unsettled as that front of boundary is going to be hanging around. Saturday we're going to see the stalled frontal boundary lift back towards the north as a warm front. With the front we will likely see scattered rain showers advancing northward with a chance for snow showers and a mix Ahead of that frontal boundary. Then Saturday night into Sunday We are going to watch a cold front approach the region. As this moves through we'll likely see widespread rain showers and thunderstorms. Some of these thunderstorms could be strong to severe. Behind the front as colder air is working its way in those northern areas will likely see rain change over to some snow. I don't expect Easter Sunday to be a complete washout. So there will be time if you have outdoor Easter plans like an Easter egg hunt. High pressure is going to build in for Monday as the cold front is departing the region.

Have a great day!