The 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook part 2

 

Here is the second installment of this year’s tropical outlook for the Atlantic Basin.

Here is the link to the first installment.

The 2026 hurricane season is coming soon. The Atlantic hurricane season is six months long, beginning on June 1 every year and ending on November 30.

Last year's hurricane season was a fairly quiet one; it produced 13 named storms, five of which became hurricanes. Four of those five became major hurricanes, which are storms that are Category 3 or stronger. The season also saw no named storms making landfall on the United States. Will this year be similar?

 2026 Hurricanes and Tropical Storms

 Here’s the list of the names that will be used for the 2026 hurricanes and tropical storms in the Atlantic basin.

Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Leah, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred.

Here are the major factors that will help determine this year’s outlook.

 Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs):

 

Warmer-than-average SSTs provide more energy for storm formation and intensification. Looking at the current data indicates that SST anomalies— especially in the Gulf of America and Caribbean Sea—are looking to be very warm, increasing the chance of active rapid intensification (RI) should a storm traverse across these areas this year.  The Main Development Region MDR which includes the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf average to slightly above average overall.  

 

Because the Gulf is once again warmer than average, tropical cyclones near the coastline could undergo RI with crushing impacts that leave little time to fully prepare.

 

While the overall SSTs are generally cooler in the MDR than this time last year, they are still quite elevated and are quite warm in the Gulf.

 

In this image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits. We can clearly see the Loop Current in the southeast Gulf.  The Loop Current provides extra warm water to developing hurricanes.

 

The 26° C Which is 78.8° F water temperatures, which is warm enough for hurricane formation, is not only present on the sea surface but is already quite deep into the sea. The Ocean Heat Content (OHC) In fact, the red areas show where warm water is around 300 feet deep. Warm water this deep can act as rocket fuel, especially with low windshear. As spring turns into summer, expect this deep warm water area to expand.

 

 El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO):

The ENSO condition is has evolved from a La Nina condition.  But as I’ve been saying for quite some time an El Nino, perhaps a very strong one, should be developing over the next few months. The timing of this El Nino event is going to have a big impact on how it will impact the 2026 season.

As I’ve said many times, El Nino is a natural climate pattern that occurs in the equatorial Pacific but affects weather worldwide. El Nino is the warm phase of the ENSO. The cooler phase is La Nina.  The warmer-than-average Pacific waters during an El Nino pattern tend to prevent storms in the Atlantic from developing or strengthening by overall higher than average windshear, which is when upper-level winds tear the storms apart, making for an unfavorable environment for storm development.

 

The graphics above shows the present SST in the ENSO critical area.  One can easily see the Pacific is quickly warming with all the spaghetti modes show major warming going through the coming hurricane season.  On the chart the model mean is showing a very Strong El Nino, with a few showing a very strong (Super) El Nino showing up for the peak of the hurricane season.

 If we see an El Nino there is a correlation for increased Wind Shear and fewer storms. But remember this is only one factor, as I said in part 1, with the global oceans so warm, they very well could overwhelm the El Nino, making it less of a factor.

 Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO):

 The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index reflects an argued 50–80-year pattern of North Atlantic coupled ocean-atmosphere variability. Over that time frame it has a cool phase and warm phase. It is associated with changes in rainfall over North America and Europe, the frequency of North American droughts, and the intensity of North Atlantic hurricanes. For 2026 the AMO remains in a warm phase, which historically correlates with higher hurricane activity. This year, this pattern continues to be conducive for tropical cyclone development.

 In fact, looking the image below, y’all can see the dashed line in the image below, it shows how the actual warming is higher than most models and analogue years can now predict.  In other words, the models are for the most part, under forecasting the strength of the AMO.  The red horizontal line shows the marking out between warm phase and cool phases. 

 

So, the AMO teleconnection is showing the Atlantic remains in a very warm phase which is a positive factor for tropical cyclone development.

 

 Bermuda-Azores High:

 The Bermuda-Azores High or simply know as the Bermuda high is an area of high-pressure located over the Atlantic Ocean that gets its name from the island chain of Bermuda. The strength and location of the Bermuda high is very important, as it has the ability to influence the track and strength of tropical systems in the Atlantic basin.

 

The clockwise circulation around the Bermuda high is what helps direct the path of tropical systems and can determine if they make landfall or stay out to sea.

A weaker Bermuda High that is shifted to the east in general steers storms northward earlier in their track westward, which may shift storm trajectory out into the open Atlantic or even towards Bermuda. This helps to decrease direct impacts on East and southern U.S. Coast. But when the high pressure is stronger and shifted west. It tends to allow tropical cyclones to work into the western Atlantic and target the Caribbean, Gulf and East Coast, or anything in between.

In 2026, signs are that this year’s Bermuda High will be more elongated and could have two centers.  So there is a chance some of the tropical cyclones will move more westward into the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf or possibility get closer to the East Coast.

 

Mid-level Moisture:

 Mid-level moisture is also a very important factor in tropical cyclone development. Tropical Cyclones begin as easterly waves that move across the Sahel region of northern Africa.  Here is a map that shows this important African region.

 

If this area is wet, it suppresses the amount of dust blowing across this semi-arid region. With less dust plumes heading out over the MDR.; it means tropical cyclones have more mid-level moisture to help them develop.

The forecast from the National Climate System forecast model shows quite a bit of green and blue areas showing quite a bit of rainfall in August 2026.

 

If accurate, dust will be suppressed, and more moisture will be available to the easterly wave storm systems emerging into the Atlantic which would aid hurricane development as peak hurricane season begins.

 Looking at the CFSv2 precipitation pattern for the MDR for June, images courtesy of Tropical Tidbits. The model is showing large swaths of heavy rainfall suggesting lots of moisture availability especially for June.

 

The red arrow is showing how storms could track that can create this kind of heavy rain pattern.

 

Here is a look at July, August and September, images courtesy of Tropical Tidbits

 

The pattern is showing there could be ample moisture available for at least the first part of the season heading toward the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, which is on September 10^th.  So, in spite of the emerging El Nino, there is going to be a concern for the Gulf and East Coast of the United States.

 

What is the current prediction from the major outlets?

 

Source….......Named Storms…....Hurricanes……....... Major (Cat 3+)  

CSU……..………13………………….6………………….….2    

TSR……..………12………………….5………………….….1                    

U of Arizona.........20………………….9……………………..4    

30yr Average.........14…………........….7……....……………..3

               

Here is my first call on my thoughts on the overall numbers:

 Key Drivers

With El Nino expected to develop and likely strengthen into a moderate to strong or even a super El Nino by peak season. This increases the general upper-level wind shear over the Atlantic, disrupting tropical cyclone organization and intensification. But on the other side of the coin with SSTs being warmer than average in the Gulf of America and Caribbean Sea, but slightly cooler in the eastern and central Atlantic (but these will warm some more during the season). The Gulf’s warm waters could still support RI. We also have a chance for a wetter than average African region, this could mean less dust plumes over the MDR in the Atlantic.   Based on these analogue years 2006, 2009, 2015 which saw slightly below average activity, and especially 2023 season due to record warm Atlantic SSTs, which overrode the El Nino influence. Due to this 2023 featured 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes, including two Category 5 storms.

Right now, I think the number of names storms, will end up being 12 to 16, with 6-9 becoming hurricanes, with 3-4 of those becoming major hurricanes.

Summery:  

El Nino is expected to develop and strengthen, possibly becoming very strong. But the SSTs and increased amount of moisture leading to the chance for below average amounts of dust over the MDR. These could override much of El Ninos influence.  remember it only takes one storm to make a quiet season produce historic disasters, as 1992 and Hurricane Andrew showed.

Based on the factors I went over I think the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season looks be around average to slightly above average.

These are the areas at the highest threat for direct impacts

As far as impact, those with the greatest risk of seeing landfalling systems look to be along the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast as well as the West Coast of Florida. The area around the Carolinas is also at an above average risk. The western Gulf Coast, especially Texas has a generally below average risk. Along the rest of the East Coast, Florida as well as the Middle Atlantic and New England Coast look to be around average.

Well, that’s it…If I make an updated outlook, it will be released around the end of May.

If you liked this and learned something, please leave a comment and let me know!