Feels like summer but don't get used to it

 The surface chart and radar

The trailing end of yesterday's system weakened overnight into this morning as it came over the Great Lakes; all thats left is scattered rain showers up over the Adirondacks and across northern New England. On the surface chart we can see that semi stationary frontal boundary sitting over New York State and New England.

South  of the boundary temperatures are in the 70s and 80s. While north of the boundary there in the 50s and 60s. With the southern flow we are experiencing higher dew point. The setup does support thunderstorm development

We still have several areas of low pressure moving along this frontal boundary. accompanying this area of low pressure We have showers and thunderstorms to our west. These will come through later this afternoon and this evening. Some of these thunderstorms could be strong too severe. With the greatest danger being damaging winds and moderate to large hail. But there will also be the danger of heavy downpours, frequent lightning and a few tornadoes can't be ruled out. With the heavy rains, localized flooding could be an issue.

Today's Storm protection center's convective outlook

The SPC has a Moderate Risk for severe weather across the southern tier of New York State into northern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey the Moderate Risk also extends across southern New England. There is a Slight Risk for severe storms across Northwest Pennsylvania into Southwest New York State. The most likely time for severe storms to develop and move through will be late afternoon into around Midnight.

We're still going to be dealing with this semi stationary front tomorrow we're also going to be dealing with this warm and humid air mass. This will provide Showers and thunderstorms. Again some of these thunderstorms during the afternoon into the evening could be strong too severe.

Tomorrow's convective outlook

Looking at the chart We can see the SPC has a Slight Risk for severe storms across the large part of New York State With a Moderate Risk that extends around it into New England and northern and western Pennsylvania. Like today the main risk will be damaging winds hail and heavy downpours. Frequent lightning will also be a concern. There will be enough wind shear that rotating updrafts are possible. So there is also going to be a tornado risk but the risk is low.

Friday will see the stationary boundary start to move south as a cold front. North of the boundary temperatures will cool down. We will also be watching a stronger cold front approaching from the west. Temperatures will still be  unseasonably warm south of the front. Saturday we're going to have a trough overhead, for the most part the day should be dry. But I can't rule out a few isolated showers. 

Sunday we're going to watch a very strong cold front approach and move through. We'll be under the trough on Monday with very cold temperatures for this time of year. We're likely going to see as 30-40°F temperature drop, from the super warm temperatures we've been seeing As well below average temperatures take hold. Tuesday we'll see high pressure sitting overhead keeping things quite chilly. We will watch another area of low pressure approach us on Wednesday. 

Monday into Tuesday there is going to be a decent chance for snow showers for parts of northern Pennsylvania New York State into northern and central New England. There could also be some lake enhanced or even lake effect snow showers downwind of the lakes

Euro and GFS images compliments of pivotal weather

My latest post on El Nino

Have a nice day