Tranquil Father’s Day weekend!

 

Surface chart and Radar

We see yesterday's cold front that brought all the severe storms to New York State and New England, is now off the Coast, with just a few isolated rain showers from far northern New York State to Maine. There are also a few rain showers over Southern Maryland and Delaware.

 

Yesterday saw dozens of Severe storms across NYS and New England. As the cold front quickly moved across the region. The atmosphere was moderately unstable, but there was strong deep‑layer wind shear over New York State and New England, due to the strong synoptic forcing over that area. This is called a low-Cape high shear environment. This type of environment can produce severe weather outbreaks that are capable of significant tornadoes, straight-line winds, and hail. That was certainly the case yesterday. In a LCHS setup tornadoes are very hard to detect. So, in spite of there being at least one area of rotation that produced an apparent debris ball (TDS) between Groton to Cortland. The NWS issued no tornado warnings for NYS. But the NWS will be conducting surveys in Yates County as well as in Tompkins and Cortland Counties to determine with any occurred.  Another area that had a possible tornado was in Woodstock, Vermont, to see if there was a tornado.

With the El Nino effecting the pattern we can expect the see saw pattern to continue along with the chance for more severe outbreaks.

What about this weekend.

Today is going to see scattered sun and clouds and should be mainly dry. Temperatures will be slightly below average with lower humidity. Winds will continue to be gusty with gust of 30 to near 40 mph possible. For Father’s Day weekend, winds will continue to be gusty. With temperatures looks to be around seasonal. There will be the chance for isolated rain showers but the bulk of the weekend to see plenty of sunshine and looks to be dry.

The first day of astronomical summer is this Sunday and occurs at 4:24 A.M.

Next week

There is a chance of rain returning as early as Sunday night across western parts of our region ahead of our next system.  More in the way of widespread rain and Thunderstorms chances return on Monday. We’re going to have a leading warm front that is going to bring milder temperatures and higher humidity into the region. The warm front looks to stall over northern parts of the region. Then a trailing cold front will approach and move through, bringing rain and thunderstorms, some of these storms could be strong to severe.  The setup could be quite similar to yesterday, that had a lot of forcing over New York State and New England. So, the chance for strong to severe storms looks to be greater there. This would mean, much of Pennsylvania and the Middle Atlantic would have less of a chance for strong storms. The setup supports a possible severe outbreak, along with the chance for some tornadoes. We will see how things evolve.

The SPC isn’t indicting much saying things are too uncertain to make a discission one way or the other.  

Tuesday high pressure will move in and with lingering rain showers, but things dry up as the day goes on.  Wednesday looks similar to Tuesday but a weak disturbance to the north could bring a few rain showers especially across northern parts of the region.  Thursday sees the chance for widespread rain showers and isolated thunderstorms increase as a low-pressure system moves through. Friday will stay unsettled with rain showers and isolated thunderstorms.

 Enjoy today and the weekend. Take time to spend time with the dads to celebrate for all they do!