Something tropical in the Atlantic Basin to talk about

 

Tropical Write UP

Energy that crossed over Mexico from Cristina is interacting with a tropical wave moving across the Yucatan Peninsula.  This is going to move over the Bay of Campeche over the next couple of days.  

Sea Surface Temperatures (SST’s) in the Bay of Campeche are 83° F -84° F which is warm enough for tropical development.

Image curtesy of the National Climatic Data Center

Images curtesy of the NHC

But other parameters like moderate to high wind shear and dry air make for fairly unfavorable development conditions

Images curtesy of the University of Wisconsin

So, any development will be quite slow. The National Hurricane Center has given the system a 10% chance of forming within the next seven days. as it moves onshore the coast of Mexico late Saturday or Sunday. So, any window this has to become a named system is going to be very small and quite short.  But if it becomes a tropical storm, it will take the name “Arthur”.  Regardless of this becoming a tropical storm, it will likely be a gusty wind and rain maker which would lead to localized flooding as it moves ashore in Mexico.