Mesoscale Discussion 1092

 

Mesoscale Discussion 1092
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0248 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

   Areas affected...west-central Pennsylvania...western New
   York...western Maryland...and northern West Virginia

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 312...

   Valid 111948Z - 112145Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 312
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe weather threat continues across WW312,
   primarily across portions of southwestern Pennsylvania ahead of a
   more organized convective line.

   DISCUSSION...Several thunderstorm complexes have developed across
   western NY and PA, eastern OH, and northern WV. Some damaging wind
   reports have occurred as a result, particularly with the convective
   line in southwestern PA. KPBZ sampled around 50 kts around 700 ft
   ARL as the line passed at 1900z. Although bulk shear will remain on
   the modest side (around 20 kts), it should be sufficient to maintain
   more organized thunderstorm complexes as they move eastward into a
   region of MLCAPE around 2000+ J/kg. The greatest short-term threat
   for severe wind gusts will be in southwestern PA ahead of the
   organized convective line.

   Strong thunderstorms have also formed in western NY along the
   northern periphery of the unstable airmass. Here, bulk shear is
   slightly more supportive of discrete rotating updrafts (as evidenced
   by some low-level rotation in the cells east of Buffalo, NY as of
   1945z) but buoyancy is more limited. A local wind and small hail
   threat could persist here with any sustained storm.

   Additional convection in the western portions of WW312 may also pose
   a short-term severe threat, but should be tempered by cold outflow
   (10-15 F deficits) in the wake of the leading convection.

   ..Flournoy.. 06/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   40987991 41597960 42317858 42967749 43157687 42737615
               41527733 40067830 39377929 39048002 38988052 39238081
               40318013 40987991 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN